A note on payroll indicated errors.

“The labor force participation rate decreased to 65.8 percent in August, largely reflecting a decline in participation among teens. The labor force participation rate of teenagers declined by 1.5 percentage points to 39.7 percent. The household survey reference period fell
relatively late this August (covering the week from Sunday,
August 12 through Saturday, August 18) and, as a result, a larger-than-usual number of teens had left the labor force to return to school when surveyed. While the movement in August may have been exaggerated by the timing of the survey week, the labor force participation rate of teenagers had
been declining recently–from 43.4 percent in December 2006 to 41.2 percent in July 2007.”

How has the late survey impacted numbers? Well they indicate it may exaggerate the decline in teen employment.

The unadjusted fall in teen workers in August is -910k the largest in a decade except 2001.

This translates to a seasonally adjusted fall of -275k the largest in a decade again apart from a blowout -428K in 2001.

How about teen participation rates? Here the indicated potential error would lower the participation rate.

The unadjusted fall in teen participation July-August is -6.6%, average for the decade.

But the adjusted fall is -1.5% the largest in a decade (double the next largest)apart from a blowout -2.5% in 2001.

These acknowedged potential errors have not been corrected for in the published seasonal adjustments.

Given the large survey error +/-500K and the small result -4K there is no need to hang tough… we just have to wait for better data.