Comments on: Tim Duy Weighs in on What the Fed Might Do Next http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-fed-might-do.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:18:28 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-fed-might-do.html#comment-967 Anonymous Mon, 01 Oct 2007 22:59:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-the-fed-might-do-next/#comment-967 " For my part, I am concerned that the Fed appears to have written off the dollar. My concern stems from rising international tensions - the Fed is dumping additional liquidity into the system at a time when most central banks are attempting to turn off the faucet. The Fed is implicitly, if not explicitly, relying on countries with fixed exchange rates to absorb that additional liquidity at the cost of inflation in those economies. Moreover, those economies with floating rates become the anti-Dollar bets, forcing the Euro area, Canada, the UK, etc, to be the deflationary counterweights to the inflationary US policy."<br/><br/>This fellow is the leading fed watcher in the blogosphere? Yet he doesn't understand that a Fed rate cut doesn't "dump liquidity" into the system. That's only been true with the extraordinary discount window actions, but has nothing to do with normal or abnormal funds policy. Surprising how many of these experts don't understand how the Fed balance sheet works in practice. ” For my part, I am concerned that the Fed appears to have written off the dollar. My concern stems from rising international tensions – the Fed is dumping additional liquidity into the system at a time when most central banks are attempting to turn off the faucet. The Fed is implicitly, if not explicitly, relying on countries with fixed exchange rates to absorb that additional liquidity at the cost of inflation in those economies. Moreover, those economies with floating rates become the anti-Dollar bets, forcing the Euro area, Canada, the UK, etc, to be the deflationary counterweights to the inflationary US policy.”

This fellow is the leading fed watcher in the blogosphere? Yet he doesn’t understand that a Fed rate cut doesn’t “dump liquidity” into the system. That’s only been true with the extraordinary discount window actions, but has nothing to do with normal or abnormal funds policy. Surprising how many of these experts don’t understand how the Fed balance sheet works in practice.

]]> By: Periodista Miguel http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-fed-might-do.html#comment-965 Periodista Miguel Mon, 01 Oct 2007 22:18:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-the-fed-might-do-next/#comment-965 I can't do any better than you at culling Barry's posts, but that has been one of his repeating memes: that the Fed conveniently eliminates all inflation from their measure of inflation. And it's no problem if you don't drive, don't heat your home and don't eat....(!!) I can’t do any better than you at culling Barry’s posts, but that has been one of his repeating memes: that the Fed conveniently eliminates all inflation from their measure of inflation. And it’s no problem if you don’t drive, don’t heat your home and don’t eat….(!!)

]]> By: Yves Smith http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-fed-might-do.html#comment-964 Yves Smith Mon, 01 Oct 2007 22:12:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-the-fed-might-do-next/#comment-964 periodista miguel,<br/><br/>My usually good memory may be failing me, but I recall one post by Barry Ritholtz not all that long ago which talked about the impact of both gas and food inflation on reported consumer spending. I found this post, which talked about gas, but haven't located the one that was broader in focus:<br/><br/>http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/commerce_retail.html<br/><br/>A related but not conclusive post:<br/><br/>http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/07/retail-day.html<br/><br/>Google doesn't let you organize results by date, which is making this very inefficient... periodista miguel,

My usually good memory may be failing me, but I recall one post by Barry Ritholtz not all that long ago which talked about the impact of both gas and food inflation on reported consumer spending. I found this post, which talked about gas, but haven’t located the one that was broader in focus:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/commerce_retail.html

A related but not conclusive post:

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/07/retail-day.html

Google doesn’t let you organize results by date, which is making this very inefficient…

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-fed-might-do.html#comment-962 Anonymous Mon, 01 Oct 2007 15:33:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-the-fed-might-do-next/#comment-962 Congrats Yves.<br/><br/>You're listed <a HREF="http://www.portfolio.com/interactive-features/2007/09/econoblogosphere" REL="nofollow">here</a> when I mouse over "Wonks".<br/><br/><br/>-A- Congrats Yves.

You’re listed here when I mouse over “Wonks”.

-A-

]]> By: periodista miguel http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-fed-might-do.html#comment-961 periodista miguel Mon, 01 Oct 2007 14:36:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/10/tim-duy-weighs-in-on-what-the-fed-might-do-next/#comment-961 As always, you provide good analysis. And in this case, a nice counterpoint to Prof. Duy (who is also very good). <br/><br/>Is there statistical basis for saying consumer spending growth is a matter of inflation? I take it you are basing that on volume sales numbers... <br/><br/>And as to the validity of the data itself, if you read Barry ('Inflation Ex-Inflation') Ritholtz, you know some people are verrry agitated on at least one component of the question. I have been waiting for the job claims to add to the slowing economy case. But no. (A conundrum? Or will be just seem them cruise along in the 300K range until suddenly they are at 400,000...?) <br/><br/>Will be interesting to see what the payroll numbers say Friday. <br/><br/>Thanks again for the good work -- As always, you provide good analysis. And in this case, a nice counterpoint to Prof. Duy (who is also very good).

Is there statistical basis for saying consumer spending growth is a matter of inflation? I take it you are basing that on volume sales numbers…

And as to the validity of the data itself, if you read Barry (’Inflation Ex-Inflation’) Ritholtz, you know some people are verrry agitated on at least one component of the question. I have been waiting for the job claims to add to the slowing economy case. But no. (A conundrum? Or will be just seem them cruise along in the 300K range until suddenly they are at 400,000…?)

Will be interesting to see what the payroll numbers say Friday.

Thanks again for the good work –

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