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	<title>Comments on: &quot;Fundamentals, not liquidity conditions, are behind MBS crash&quot;</title>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2138</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 22:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Losses when they come due?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You swap the word structure for bet, i.e, like these are mortgages with  versus bad bets that are being called before the &quot;fat yield&quot; bait is dumped on to some idiot that thought the structure was backed by some theoretical AAA rating from some bozo paid off by a shill like you!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Losses when they come due?</p>
<p>You swap the word structure for bet, i.e, like these are mortgages with  versus bad bets that are being called before the &#8220;fat yield&#8221; bait is dumped on to some idiot that thought the structure was backed by some theoretical AAA rating from some bozo paid off by a shill like you!</p>
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		<title>By: jck</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2137</link>
		<dc:creator>jck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 21:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Yves:&lt;br/&gt;It does invalidate their logic, because the losses when they come[and they will come I am not disputing that] will come when most of the structure is paid off.&lt;br/&gt;The 2004 vintage are 85% to up 95% paid off.The early 2006 are 40% paid off.The timing of the losses is extremely important and while you get some pretty fat yields.&lt;br/&gt;None of the trancghes on the ABX has lost a cent in principal writedown so far and you get libor +35% on the cash bond while you wait for the day of reckoning.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves:<br />It does invalidate their logic, because the losses when they come[and they will come I am not disputing that] will come when most of the structure is paid off.<br />The 2004 vintage are 85% to up 95% paid off.The early 2006 are 40% paid off.The timing of the losses is extremely important and while you get some pretty fat yields.<br />None of the trancghes on the ABX has lost a cent in principal writedown so far and you get libor +35% on the cash bond while you wait for the day of reckoning.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2134</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 20:44:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Oh, its the shape of the loss curve..ohhh, I guess that would explain the hyperbolic upward trend versus the non-model data, or the old model which is now not in the previous curve; however, if we go back 50 years and smooth out the past year of the trillions lost in bad bets, then in 10 years all is well!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Re:  Static pool data, if available, is compiled by &lt;br/&gt;taking a discrete period of originations of the originator, such as a &lt;br/&gt;financial quarter, and that pool&#039;s performance is tracked on a monthly &lt;br/&gt;basis as the loans amortize, particularly focusing on loans which have &lt;br/&gt;been outstanding (seasoned) 18-24 months and have been substantially &lt;br/&gt;paid down. This allows a determination of the shape of the loss curve &lt;br/&gt;and project timing of losses to be made. The cumulative net loss on the &lt;br/&gt;less seasoned pools can then be extrapolated from the older pools. &lt;br/&gt;Static pool data is preferred over active pool data, which can mask &lt;br/&gt;losses during periods when the originator&#039;s pool of loans is rapidly &lt;br/&gt;growing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, its the shape of the loss curve..ohhh, I guess that would explain the hyperbolic upward trend versus the non-model data, or the old model which is now not in the previous curve; however, if we go back 50 years and smooth out the past year of the trillions lost in bad bets, then in 10 years all is well!</p>
<p>Re:  Static pool data, if available, is compiled by <br />taking a discrete period of originations of the originator, such as a <br />financial quarter, and that pool&#8217;s performance is tracked on a monthly <br />basis as the loans amortize, particularly focusing on loans which have <br />been outstanding (seasoned) 18-24 months and have been substantially <br />paid down. This allows a determination of the shape of the loss curve <br />and project timing of losses to be made. The cumulative net loss on the <br />less seasoned pools can then be extrapolated from the older pools. <br />Static pool data is preferred over active pool data, which can mask <br />losses during periods when the originator&#8217;s pool of loans is rapidly <br />growing.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2133</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 20:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Re:  Unfortunately for the &quot;award-winning provider of credit research&quot;, loss severity is a pretty useless metric.Cumulative net loss is much better.&lt;br/&gt;I&#039;ll give you a link to the worst 2004 vintage I could find with loss severity at 71.54%, that translates into 0.91% cumulative net loss.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Keep digging for older issues mate and then go into other layers!&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;http://www.cdcixis-na.com/abs/collateral/2004-HE3-012507.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re:  Unfortunately for the &#8220;award-winning provider of credit research&#8221;, loss severity is a pretty useless metric.Cumulative net loss is much better.<br />I&#8217;ll give you a link to the worst 2004 vintage I could find with loss severity at 71.54%, that translates into 0.91% cumulative net loss.</p>
<p>Keep digging for older issues mate and then go into other layers!</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cdcixis-na.com/abs/collateral/2004-HE3-012507.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cdcixis-na.com/abs/collateral/2004-HE3-012507.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Yves Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2132</link>
		<dc:creator>Yves Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 20:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>jck,&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As I indicated, I don&#039;t have access to the underlying research, and I always feel a bit exposed when I rely on third party comments (unless the analysis is pretty straightforward).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Even if you don&#039;t agree with the CreditSights methodology (or more cynically, perhaps they chose to publicize a metric that would lead to more dramatic-sounding findings) does that invalidate their logic?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>jck,</p>
<p>As I indicated, I don&#8217;t have access to the underlying research, and I always feel a bit exposed when I rely on third party comments (unless the analysis is pretty straightforward).</p>
<p>Even if you don&#8217;t agree with the CreditSights methodology (or more cynically, perhaps they chose to publicize a metric that would lead to more dramatic-sounding findings) does that invalidate their logic?</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2131</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 19:16:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>That Katrina-like sonic boom is going to be the giant sucking sound of America being sold off:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;And right now Persian Gulf countries are putting their cash to work through newly minted sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), which operate much like state owned hedge funds or private equity groups. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the past six months alone, Middle Eastern SWFs have doled out serious cash for stakes in major international corporations. Just take a look:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Nov. 27: Abu Dhabi pours $7.5 billion into ailing Citigroup Inc. (C), which recently lost its status as largest bank by market capitalization to Bank of America Corp. (BAC). &lt;br/&gt;Nov. 26: Dubai International Capital, a state-owned holding company, acquired an undisclosed stake in Japanâ€™s electronics and media juggernaut Sony Corp. (SNE). &lt;br/&gt;Nov. 16: Abu Dhabi invested $622 million (an 8.1% stake) in California-based microchip-maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). &lt;br/&gt;Oct. 20: Dubai International Capital agreed to invest $1.26 billion in the initial public offering of hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (OZM). &lt;br/&gt;Aug. 22: Dubai World, another investment arm of the state, plunked down $5.1 billion for a 9.5% stake in MGM Mirage (MGM). &lt;br/&gt;Aug. 14: Istithmar, part of Dubai World, was cleared to buy Barneys New York Inc. for $942.3 million from Jones Apparel Group Inc. (JNY). &lt;br/&gt;May 21: General Electric (GE) sold its plastics division to Saudi Basic Industries Corp. - the countryâ€™s largest public company, though 70% owned by the government - for $11.6 billion.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That Katrina-like sonic boom is going to be the giant sucking sound of America being sold off:</p>
<p>And right now Persian Gulf countries are putting their cash to work through newly minted sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), which operate much like state owned hedge funds or private equity groups. </p>
<p>In the past six months alone, Middle Eastern SWFs have doled out serious cash for stakes in major international corporations. Just take a look:</p>
<p>Nov. 27: Abu Dhabi pours $7.5 billion into ailing Citigroup Inc. (C), which recently lost its status as largest bank by market capitalization to Bank of America Corp. (BAC). <br />Nov. 26: Dubai International Capital, a state-owned holding company, acquired an undisclosed stake in Japanâ€™s electronics and media juggernaut Sony Corp. (SNE). <br />Nov. 16: Abu Dhabi invested $622 million (an 8.1% stake) in California-based microchip-maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD). <br />Oct. 20: Dubai International Capital agreed to invest $1.26 billion in the initial public offering of hedge fund Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (OZM). <br />Aug. 22: Dubai World, another investment arm of the state, plunked down $5.1 billion for a 9.5% stake in MGM Mirage (MGM). <br />Aug. 14: Istithmar, part of Dubai World, was cleared to buy Barneys New York Inc. for $942.3 million from Jones Apparel Group Inc. (JNY). <br />May 21: General Electric (GE) sold its plastics division to Saudi Basic Industries Corp. &#8211; the countryâ€™s largest public company, though 70% owned by the government &#8211; for $11.6 billion.</p>
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		<title>By: EEngineer</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2130</link>
		<dc:creator>EEngineer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 18:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Wow that&#039;s one scary ugly plot. It looks like the pressure wave gradient in front of a shock wave. Hmm... Come to think of it, it might be just that... Sonic boom approaching!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow that&#8217;s one scary ugly plot. It looks like the pressure wave gradient in front of a shock wave. Hmm&#8230; Come to think of it, it might be just that&#8230; Sonic boom approaching!</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2128</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 17:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Not sure about this cut and paste, but any comments?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Legally, a CMO is termed a special purpose entity that is wholly separate from the institution(s) that create it) for the last two and a half years and it may have sold about $100 billion in CMO&#039;s in that period, according to ABAlert. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As such, synthetic derivatives are almost never consolidated on the books and therefore, these bad bets are impacting future value to a degree never imagined in any risk models!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not sure about this cut and paste, but any comments?</p>
<p>Legally, a CMO is termed a special purpose entity that is wholly separate from the institution(s) that create it) for the last two and a half years and it may have sold about $100 billion in CMO&#8217;s in that period, according to ABAlert. </p>
<p>As such, synthetic derivatives are almost never consolidated on the books and therefore, these bad bets are impacting future value to a degree never imagined in any risk models!</p>
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		<title>By: jck</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/12/fundamentals-not-liquidity-conditions.html#comment-2125</link>
		<dc:creator>jck</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Dec 2007 12:07:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Unfortunately for the &quot;award-winning provider of credit research&quot;, loss severity is a pretty useless metric.Cumulative net loss is much better.&lt;br/&gt;I&#039;ll give you a link to the worst 2004 vintage I could find with loss severity at 71.54%, that translates into 0.91% cumulative net loss.Ouch ...now I am really worried.Btw, that pool is 85.8% paid off so it will hard for investors to lose their shirts.&lt;br/&gt;Link:&lt;br/&gt;http://www.cdcixis-na.com/abs/collateral/2004-HE3-092507.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unfortunately for the &#8220;award-winning provider of credit research&#8221;, loss severity is a pretty useless metric.Cumulative net loss is much better.<br />I&#8217;ll give you a link to the worst 2004 vintage I could find with loss severity at 71.54%, that translates into 0.91% cumulative net loss.Ouch &#8230;now I am really worried.Btw, that pool is 85.8% paid off so it will hard for investors to lose their shirts.<br />Link:<br /><a href="http://www.cdcixis-na.com/abs/collateral/2004-HE3-092507.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cdcixis-na.com/abs/collateral/2004-HE3-092507.html</a></p>
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