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	<title>Comments on: Central Bankers: Securitization is Dead, Long Live Banking</title>
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	<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html</link>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3568</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jan 2008 07:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>newsman,&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Sure, except Dizard is not talking in the past tense about old news, he seems to be describing something of an entirely unprecedented degree and extent.  $12 billion is a lot, but in a market capitalization of $230 billion, the existing shareholders aren&#039;t hurt that much.  On first reading, it seemed to me that Dizard was talking about practically outright replacing the existing shareholder base.  I guess I just misread it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;By the way, &lt;i&gt;Fortune&lt;/i&gt; has an article about how &lt;a HREF=&quot;http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/28/news/newsmakers/okeefe_tiger.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008012915&quot; REL=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Julian Robertson has placed a big bet&lt;/a&gt; on &quot;curve steepener&quot; derivatives to take advantage of precisely the sort of steeper yield curve being predicted in the article here.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>newsman,</p>
<p>Sure, except Dizard is not talking in the past tense about old news, he seems to be describing something of an entirely unprecedented degree and extent.  $12 billion is a lot, but in a market capitalization of $230 billion, the existing shareholders aren&#8217;t hurt that much.  On first reading, it seemed to me that Dizard was talking about practically outright replacing the existing shareholder base.  I guess I just misread it.</p>
<p>By the way, <i>Fortune</i> has an article about how <a HREF="http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/28/news/newsmakers/okeefe_tiger.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008012915" REL="nofollow">Julian Robertson has placed a big bet</a> on &#8220;curve steepener&#8221; derivatives to take advantage of precisely the sort of steeper yield curve being predicted in the article here.</p>
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		<title>By: yoyomo</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3567</link>
		<dc:creator>yoyomo</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jan 2008 06:42:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>To S 2:00PM&lt;br/&gt;The reason TIPS don&#039;t reflect real&lt;br/&gt;inflation expectations is that&lt;br/&gt;they are only adjusted for&lt;br/&gt;&quot;official&quot; inflation figures. No&lt;br/&gt;one in his right mind would pay &lt;br/&gt;full price for a bond that short-&lt;br/&gt;changed buyers 4-6% each year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To S 2:00PM<br />The reason TIPS don&#8217;t reflect real<br />inflation expectations is that<br />they are only adjusted for<br />&#8220;official&#8221; inflation figures. No<br />one in his right mind would pay <br />full price for a bond that short-<br />changed buyers 4-6% each year.</p>
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		<title>By: newsman</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3560</link>
		<dc:creator>newsman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jan 2008 04:36:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Anonymous writes:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;i&gt;It&#039;s not clear from Dizard&#039;s article just how this pushing aside of existing bank shareholders is supposed to come about. By banks&#039; share prices crashing down to zero and subsequent restructuring? Surely not, as that would crumble confidence in the financial system, and would simply not be allowed to happen. By massively dilutive new share issues, while the banks&#039; share prices were still relatively healthy? Surely that would be a litigation magnet. And from any realistic political perspective, takeovers of existing banks by foreign interests is a non-starter.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;You need to get caught up. Here&#039;s the relevant portion of a Reuters report from a couple of weeks ago on how Citi dealt with its need for a few extra billions:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;i&gt;Massive write-downs cut into Citi&#039;s already depleted capital base during the fourth quarter, spurring the bank to sell $12.5 billion of convertible preferred securities to investors including Singapore&#039;s and Kuwait&#039;s governments, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, and former Citigroup Chief Executive Sanford &quot;Sandy&quot; Weill.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;So if I&#039;ve got Citi common stock, all the guys mentioned above just cut ahead of me in line for dividends. It&#039;s already happened. You don&#039;t have to wonder how it will come about.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anonymous writes:<br /><i>It&#8217;s not clear from Dizard&#8217;s article just how this pushing aside of existing bank shareholders is supposed to come about. By banks&#8217; share prices crashing down to zero and subsequent restructuring? Surely not, as that would crumble confidence in the financial system, and would simply not be allowed to happen. By massively dilutive new share issues, while the banks&#8217; share prices were still relatively healthy? Surely that would be a litigation magnet. And from any realistic political perspective, takeovers of existing banks by foreign interests is a non-starter.</i></p>
<p>You need to get caught up. Here&#8217;s the relevant portion of a Reuters report from a couple of weeks ago on how Citi dealt with its need for a few extra billions:</p>
<p><i>Massive write-downs cut into Citi&#8217;s already depleted capital base during the fourth quarter, spurring the bank to sell $12.5 billion of convertible preferred securities to investors including Singapore&#8217;s and Kuwait&#8217;s governments, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, and former Citigroup Chief Executive Sanford &#8220;Sandy&#8221; Weill.</i></p>
<p>So if I&#8217;ve got Citi common stock, all the guys mentioned above just cut ahead of me in line for dividends. It&#8217;s already happened. You don&#8217;t have to wonder how it will come about.</p>
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		<title>By: vachon</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3550</link>
		<dc:creator>vachon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Jan 2008 01:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Ok, explain &quot;demotion&quot; in this context.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, explain &#8220;demotion&#8221; in this context.</p>
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		<title>By: doc holiday</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3541</link>
		<dc:creator>doc holiday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 20:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Sovereign wealth is tied to the mechanism of yield enhancement and every penny that is made from these vultures will go back from where it came, thus the long term solution obviously does not lie in eroding the system through this form of dilution.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sovereign wealth is tied to the mechanism of yield enhancement and every penny that is made from these vultures will go back from where it came, thus the long term solution obviously does not lie in eroding the system through this form of dilution.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3540</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 19:18:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead-long-live-banking/#comment-3540</guid>
		<description>It&#039;s not clear from Dizard&#039;s article just how this pushing aside of existing bank shareholders is supposed to come about.  By banks&#039; share prices crashing down to zero and subsequent restructuring?  Surely not, as that would crumble confidence in the financial system, and would simply not be allowed to happen.  By massively dilutive new share issues, while the banks&#039; share prices were still relatively healthy?  Surely that would be a litigation magnet.  And from any realistic political perspective, takeovers of existing banks by foreign interests is a non-starter.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A more realistic perspective is simply the emergence of new lending entities, if demand for loans is there but existing banks are impaired in their lending capacity due to balance sheet issues and securitization fails to revive.  Existing banks would hang on but remain marginal.  Sovereign wealth funds offering non-dollar-denominated loans to US corporations, perhaps?  Or, if the yield curve will be rigged steeper to deliver guaranteed profits to banks to help them shore up their balance sheets in the time-honored manner, maybe Warren Buffett would start a bank?  The logic is the same as for entering the monoline insurance business: steady large profits practically guaranteed as long as you don&#039;t go wild and lose your head and dabble in things you don&#039;t understand.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;For years, Wal-Mart tried to start a bank, but finally gave up, although they did recently start a bank in Mexico.  Maybe Buffett would have better luck with regulators.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not clear from Dizard&#8217;s article just how this pushing aside of existing bank shareholders is supposed to come about.  By banks&#8217; share prices crashing down to zero and subsequent restructuring?  Surely not, as that would crumble confidence in the financial system, and would simply not be allowed to happen.  By massively dilutive new share issues, while the banks&#8217; share prices were still relatively healthy?  Surely that would be a litigation magnet.  And from any realistic political perspective, takeovers of existing banks by foreign interests is a non-starter.</p>
<p>A more realistic perspective is simply the emergence of new lending entities, if demand for loans is there but existing banks are impaired in their lending capacity due to balance sheet issues and securitization fails to revive.  Existing banks would hang on but remain marginal.  Sovereign wealth funds offering non-dollar-denominated loans to US corporations, perhaps?  Or, if the yield curve will be rigged steeper to deliver guaranteed profits to banks to help them shore up their balance sheets in the time-honored manner, maybe Warren Buffett would start a bank?  The logic is the same as for entering the monoline insurance business: steady large profits practically guaranteed as long as you don&#8217;t go wild and lose your head and dabble in things you don&#8217;t understand.</p>
<p>For years, Wal-Mart tried to start a bank, but finally gave up, although they did recently start a bank in Mexico.  Maybe Buffett would have better luck with regulators.</p>
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		<title>By: s</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3539</link>
		<dc:creator>s</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 19:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>This is not unconventional thinking. Bretton Woods II which has locked down long rates will be the tell on how the long end of the curve reacts. The US is in the too big to fail catagory, so one has to belive the US can basically posture about capital inflows via TIC data as a sort of forwarning to speed up the medicine. Dizard is right that the lowering of rates has nothing to do with the consumer - theat is an aside. This is all about bailing out and/or recapitalizing the banking industry. What is really amazing is that there is inflation everywhere and yet the TIPS are still not pricing in the expectation. This is perplexing and says to me that there are more forces at work than simple market dynamics</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is not unconventional thinking. Bretton Woods II which has locked down long rates will be the tell on how the long end of the curve reacts. The US is in the too big to fail catagory, so one has to belive the US can basically posture about capital inflows via TIC data as a sort of forwarning to speed up the medicine. Dizard is right that the lowering of rates has nothing to do with the consumer &#8211; theat is an aside. This is all about bailing out and/or recapitalizing the banking industry. What is really amazing is that there is inflation everywhere and yet the TIPS are still not pricing in the expectation. This is perplexing and says to me that there are more forces at work than simple market dynamics</p>
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		<title>By: doc holiday</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3538</link>
		<dc:creator>doc holiday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 18:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Re:  That may seem like a very bland statement, but it is tantamount to saying that a comet has wiped out most of the mammals and the dinosaurs will rise again. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Do you mean to imply that the fluorescent -haired tatooed derivative traders will have have to wear extra large glasses like Warren Buffett and shave those beards, as they mark-to-market Level 3, unobservable assets which probably will disclose the nature of what thin air looks like, in relation to actual value?  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;See also:  Warren Buffett &amp; $33 Billion in goodwill accounting and his latest bond deals with Custodial Receipts and his simple farmboy conservatism which are connected to his plans for his own rating agncy....&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;More vodka!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re:  That may seem like a very bland statement, but it is tantamount to saying that a comet has wiped out most of the mammals and the dinosaurs will rise again. </p>
<p>Do you mean to imply that the fluorescent -haired tatooed derivative traders will have have to wear extra large glasses like Warren Buffett and shave those beards, as they mark-to-market Level 3, unobservable assets which probably will disclose the nature of what thin air looks like, in relation to actual value?  </p>
<p>See also:  Warren Buffett &#038; $33 Billion in goodwill accounting and his latest bond deals with Custodial Receipts and his simple farmboy conservatism which are connected to his plans for his own rating agncy&#8230;.</p>
<p>More vodka!</p>
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		<title>By: tedb</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3537</link>
		<dc:creator>tedb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 18:03:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Is there a way to maximize the comment window on this blog?  On my PC I get a small window which is adequate for reading comments but unsatisfactory if I try linking to something else like the &quot;really scary Fed charts&quot; mentioned above.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is there a way to maximize the comment window on this blog?  On my PC I get a small window which is adequate for reading comments but unsatisfactory if I try linking to something else like the &#8220;really scary Fed charts&#8221; mentioned above.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/central-bankers-securitization-is-dead.html#comment-3533</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:43:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>And pray tell what would be the inflationary and dollar consequences of the artificial stimulation of demand by suppression of the yield curve below inflationary rates?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And pray tell what would be the inflationary and dollar consequences of the artificial stimulation of demand by suppression of the yield curve below inflationary rates?</p>
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