Comments on: ISDA Says Credit Default Swap Losses Will Be Only $15 Billion http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:17:20 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: acerimusdux http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses.html#comment-17052 acerimusdux Wed, 24 Sep 2008 20:50:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses-will-be-only-15-billion/#comment-17052 It is possible that they are under estimating the default rate, that more than 2% of companies will go under, but at least the ISDA has gotten the basic math right. In contrast, anyone who believes that "notional" amounts have anything to do with either the underlying value or the amount at risk in a derivative contract is clearly clueless. It is possible that they are under estimating the default rate, that more than 2% of companies will go under, but at least the ISDA has gotten the basic math right. In contrast, anyone who believes that “notional” amounts have anything to do with either the underlying value or the amount at risk in a derivative contract is clearly clueless.

]]> By: PureGuesswork http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses.html#comment-3213 PureGuesswork Tue, 22 Jan 2008 15:08:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses-will-be-only-15-billion/#comment-3213 As per usual, Gillian Tett of the FT reported on this last week. But since it was so counter to the market zeitgeist at that time, it was ignored. Good to see that the reporters at Bloomberg are reading her though. As per usual, Gillian Tett of the FT reported on this last week. But since it was so counter to the market zeitgeist at that time, it was ignored. Good to see that the reporters at Bloomberg are reading her though.

]]> By: Ken Houghton http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses.html#comment-3212 Ken Houghton Tue, 22 Jan 2008 14:59:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/isda-says-credit-default-swap-losses-will-be-only-15-billion/#comment-3212 Choose one from:<br/><br/>(1) Snark: The NAR also believes the housing market has bottomed<br/><br/>or<br/><br/>(2) Pessimism: ISDA may be referring to capital<br/><br/>or<br/><br/>(3) Logic: If these contracts are really "offsetting," why would there be any expectation of a loss, let alone $15,000,000,000? Choose one from:

(1) Snark: The NAR also believes the housing market has bottomed

or

(2) Pessimism: ISDA may be referring to capital

or

(3) Logic: If these contracts are really “offsetting,” why would there be any expectation of a loss, let alone $15,000,000,000?

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