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	<title>Comments on: Worrisome Signs for the Bond Insurer Bailout</title>
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		<title>By: Yves Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-5206</link>
		<dc:creator>Yves Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Mar 2008 20:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The deleted post was spam.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The deleted post was spam.</p>
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		<title>By: doc holiday</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3297</link>
		<dc:creator>doc holiday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Jan 2008 03:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>yves,&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Great, great stuff which is appreciated in these times when people like you make a real difference!  The lack of journalism in America is sad, and sadly related to a lack of journalism.  IMHO, People are looking for total full disclosure and FASB/GAAP reality and not the next Enron illusion or false and misleading earnings report from companies that are rewarded for fraud!  Please continue if you have the will, the spirit, the integrity, the balls, and the mentality to deal with the stress toll which this can take; your doing great, thanks!  I also realize that FASB/GAAP is a farse, so you are even more needed than ever (and people like you)!!!!!!!!!! Emergency, we need integrity!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>yves,</p>
<p>Great, great stuff which is appreciated in these times when people like you make a real difference!  The lack of journalism in America is sad, and sadly related to a lack of journalism.  IMHO, People are looking for total full disclosure and FASB/GAAP reality and not the next Enron illusion or false and misleading earnings report from companies that are rewarded for fraud!  Please continue if you have the will, the spirit, the integrity, the balls, and the mentality to deal with the stress toll which this can take; your doing great, thanks!  I also realize that FASB/GAAP is a farse, so you are even more needed than ever (and people like you)!!!!!!!!!! Emergency, we need integrity!</p>
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		<title>By: donebenson</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3290</link>
		<dc:creator>donebenson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 21:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The FT&#039;s Alphaville said today that RBC research estimated that total CDO  exposure of the monolines [&amp; ACA] is over $500 billion.  I doubt $15 billion of new captital would cover the losses on that amount of exposure.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The FT&#8217;s Alphaville said today that RBC research estimated that total CDO  exposure of the monolines [&#038; ACA] is over $500 billion.  I doubt $15 billion of new captital would cover the losses on that amount of exposure.</p>
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		<title>By: doc holiday</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3289</link>
		<dc:creator>doc holiday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 21:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/worrisome-signs-for-the-bond-insurer-bailout/#comment-3289</guid>
		<description>Chaos + Chaos = Chaos&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Or put another way garbage in, garbage out&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Or put another way,&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Absolute power corrupts absolutely&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Or maybe this is  all is just entropy, where the inflation of retardation in the finance world has resulted in a massive retardation bubble that has expanded beyond infinity:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Re:  Said a credit trader in Germany: &quot;It kind of begs the question now, did the Fed cut rates courtesy of a rogue trader at SocGen having to close out a massive position and sending the stock market into turmoil?&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chaos + Chaos = Chaos</p>
<p>Or put another way garbage in, garbage out</p>
<p>Or put another way,</p>
<p>Absolute power corrupts absolutely</p>
<p>Or maybe this is  all is just entropy, where the inflation of retardation in the finance world has resulted in a massive retardation bubble that has expanded beyond infinity:</p>
<p>Re:  Said a credit trader in Germany: &#8220;It kind of begs the question now, did the Fed cut rates courtesy of a rogue trader at SocGen having to close out a massive position and sending the stock market into turmoil?&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3288</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 18:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The fundamental problem with LTCM was simply that the market could stay irrational longer than LTCM could stay solvent.  The bets they made were leveraged beyond reason but ultimately profitable, and within a relatively short time frame.  Warren Buffett realized this and was willing to do the rescue singlehandedly, but he happened to be on vacation in Alaska with Bill Gates at the time and could not negotiate seriously by cell phone.  He later joked that it was the most expensive vacation he ever took.  The 24 banks could probably smell profit too and that made it a lot easier to twist their arms.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;This time around it&#039;s a lot harder to see any potential for profit.  The banks might as well take their writedowns now.  And Buffett took a good long look and then decided to start his own rival company instead.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&#039;s also important to understand the insurance regulator&#039;s incentives.  For him personally, it&#039;s worth pursuing even if there were almost no chance whatsoever of success.  How many people knew his name before all this, but know it now?  His future ambitions in the sphere of politics or the financial industry can only be enhanced -- and if by any chance this lottery ticket pays off, the sky&#039;s the limit.  It&#039;s just a slight twist on the career path of Giuliani and Spitzer.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fundamental problem with LTCM was simply that the market could stay irrational longer than LTCM could stay solvent.  The bets they made were leveraged beyond reason but ultimately profitable, and within a relatively short time frame.  Warren Buffett realized this and was willing to do the rescue singlehandedly, but he happened to be on vacation in Alaska with Bill Gates at the time and could not negotiate seriously by cell phone.  He later joked that it was the most expensive vacation he ever took.  The 24 banks could probably smell profit too and that made it a lot easier to twist their arms.</p>
<p>This time around it&#8217;s a lot harder to see any potential for profit.  The banks might as well take their writedowns now.  And Buffett took a good long look and then decided to start his own rival company instead.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s also important to understand the insurance regulator&#8217;s incentives.  For him personally, it&#8217;s worth pursuing even if there were almost no chance whatsoever of success.  How many people knew his name before all this, but know it now?  His future ambitions in the sphere of politics or the financial industry can only be enhanced &#8212; and if by any chance this lottery ticket pays off, the sky&#8217;s the limit.  It&#8217;s just a slight twist on the career path of Giuliani and Spitzer.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3287</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 18:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;i&gt;Perhaps you could explain how the holding company going bankrupt would not impair the insurance contracts?&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I believe the state insurance commissioners have broad regulatory powers to step in and redirect all the cash flow to protect the policyholders, and leave the holding company to twist in the wind.  The folks who recently bought the notes at 14% may not have realized what they were getting themselves into.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Perhaps you could explain how the holding company going bankrupt would not impair the insurance contracts?</i></p>
<p>I believe the state insurance commissioners have broad regulatory powers to step in and redirect all the cash flow to protect the policyholders, and leave the holding company to twist in the wind.  The folks who recently bought the notes at 14% may not have realized what they were getting themselves into.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3286</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 17:55:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;i&gt;I say the Feds should backstop the current policies and stop the &quot;business&quot; of bond insurance.  Ever notice we are the only country smart enough to get into this business.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;A distinct muni bond category simply doesn&#039;t exist in other countries, because there is no comparable tax-free treatment.  There&#039;s nothing wrong with back-to-basics bond insurance as a business -- after all, Warren Buffett himself is getting into it.  It&#039;s just the recent toxic exotic stuff that MBIA and Ambac got in trouble over.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>I say the Feds should backstop the current policies and stop the &#8220;business&#8221; of bond insurance.  Ever notice we are the only country smart enough to get into this business.</i></p>
<p>A distinct muni bond category simply doesn&#8217;t exist in other countries, because there is no comparable tax-free treatment.  There&#8217;s nothing wrong with back-to-basics bond insurance as a business &#8212; after all, Warren Buffett himself is getting into it.  It&#8217;s just the recent toxic exotic stuff that MBIA and Ambac got in trouble over.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3284</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 16:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>All insurance is equivalent to writing put options.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>All insurance is equivalent to writing put options.</p>
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		<title>By: David</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3281</link>
		<dc:creator>David</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 15:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Yves, I generally agree with what you wrote.  A coordinated bailout is unlikely.  Who knows?  This could lead to the repeal of oversight of insurance by the states.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&#039;m not up on the competence of the Wisconsin regulator.  One thing Wisconsin does have going for it is that they still have a number of regulators on their staff that worked through the MGIC insolvency in the 1980s.  That counts for something here, even though reconciling Ambac is a quantum leap of difficulty beyond MGIC in the 1980s.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves, I generally agree with what you wrote.  A coordinated bailout is unlikely.  Who knows?  This could lead to the repeal of oversight of insurance by the states.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not up on the competence of the Wisconsin regulator.  One thing Wisconsin does have going for it is that they still have a number of regulators on their staff that worked through the MGIC insolvency in the 1980s.  That counts for something here, even though reconciling Ambac is a quantum leap of difficulty beyond MGIC in the 1980s.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/01/some-not-good-signs-for-bond-insurer.html#comment-3279</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Jan 2008 14:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>This is truly a &quot;bailout the ass of promoters&quot; plan.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The expansion to the money supply because of loose credit is beyond comprehension.  This kind of plan goes through expect a far greater correction to consumer prices to reflect the current level of money supply.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is truly a &#8220;bailout the ass of promoters&#8221; plan.</p>
<p>The expansion to the money supply because of loose credit is beyond comprehension.  This kind of plan goes through expect a far greater correction to consumer prices to reflect the current level of money supply.</p>
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