Courtesy the Cleveland Fed. Note that this is as of time, the Fed fund futures market says there is zero probability of a 25 basis point reduction. A 50 basis point cut has 50% odds.
Note this chart is dated March 6. and therefore does not reflect the impact of the announcement of the increase in the Term Auction Facility.
David Leonhardt of the New York Times reports that later trading showed expectations shifted to a deeper cut:
Traders became even more confident, based on the price of futures contracts, that the Fed would cut its benchmark interest rate three-quarters of a point, to 2.25 percent, when policy makers meet on March 18.
Another Times article by Edmund Andrews points out the Fed lacks effective remedies:
The Fed’s problem is that its main weapons against a downturn — lower interest rates and easier money — are ill suited to a crisis that stems from collapsing confidence about credit quality.Even though the central bank sharply cut short-term interest rates twice in January and clearly signaled that it would cut them again on March 18, rates for home mortgages have risen and rates for many forms of commercial loans have jumped sharply.
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Why are interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rising even as the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates and yields on Treasury bonds fall?
The answer is that the mortgage market is short of roughly $1 trillion in capital, according to Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey.
The modern mortgage market works with lots of leverage, or borrowed money. Investors, including hedge funds and mortgage real estate investment trusts, buy mortgage securities, but finance a lot of their purchases with this leverage.
FBR’s Miller estimates that $11 trillion of outstanding U.S. mortgage debt is supported with roughly $587 billion of equity. That’s a leverage ratio of 19 to one.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mortgage-market-needs-1-trillion/story.aspx?guid=359B5377-39DB-4C8B-9178-C45726A45272&dist=SecMostMailed