http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/bondholders-lucky-to-recover-10-in.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:07:28 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/bondholders-lucky-to-recover-10-in.html#comment-7282 Richard Kline Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:51:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/bondholders-lucky-to-recover-10-in-defaults/#comment-7282 While I'm not sure that the raters get their dime-on-the-dollar recovery calcs from this angle, one reason why recoveries are going to be historically low is that debts have been written against badly inflated collateral values. Not only are there the 'normal losses' from failed investments, but the underlying collateral was never worth it's valuation and is repriced in the process of the loss. Severely repriced. I suspect that losses from pre-1929 crashes were much greater than 58 cents on the dollar for this reason, though I don't have any actual data on that in front of me. If so, we, again, return to 19th century speculative trajectories on this one. : ( While I’m not sure that the raters get their dime-on-the-dollar recovery calcs from this angle, one reason why recoveries are going to be historically low is that debts have been written against badly inflated collateral values. Not only are there the ‘normal losses’ from failed investments, but the underlying collateral was never worth it’s valuation and is repriced in the process of the loss. Severely repriced. I suspect that losses from pre-1929 crashes were much greater than 58 cents on the dollar for this reason, though I don’t have any actual data on that in front of me. If so, we, again, return to 19th century speculative trajectories on this one. : (

]]> http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/bondholders-lucky-to-recover-10-in.html#comment-7262 Steve Thu, 24 Apr 2008 00:17:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/bondholders-lucky-to-recover-10-in-defaults/#comment-7262 Does anyone have a pointer to the total amount of HY debt scheduled to refi this year? Does anyone have a pointer to the total amount of HY debt scheduled to refi this year?

]]>