Comments on: The Credit Crunch is Dead! Long Live the Credit Crunch! http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:18:41 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-23520 Anonymous Tue, 28 Oct 2008 18:17:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-23520 Here is another good article about the issue we are facing.<br/>http://financialrepercussions.blogspot.com/ Here is another good article about the issue we are facing.
http://financialrepercussions.blogspot.com/

]]> By: jomama http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7280 jomama Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:10:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7280 <a HREF="http://djomama.blogspot.com/2006/12/first-world-government-junk-bonds-on.html" REL="nofollow"><br/>We/it hasn't even started yet.</a><br/><br/>Nothing will change without major<br/>restructuring given the taxes<br/>required to pay <a HREF="http://www.thespiritof76.com/NEX_NEWS/NF_YOURS.HTM#805" REL="nofollow">for all this</a>...in<br/>a depression.<br/><br/>Few want to say the "D" word.<br/><br/>When credit dries up, as it has,<br/>an economy built on it will collapse.
We/it hasn’t even started yet.

Nothing will change without major
restructuring given the taxes
required to pay for all this…in
a depression.

Few want to say the “D” word.

When credit dries up, as it has,
an economy built on it will collapse.

]]> By: binaryoptions http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7218 binaryoptions Wed, 23 Apr 2008 00:27:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7218 If there's a paradox existing in today's financial markets, then what I read here epitomizes it: With tighter short term credit, due to the financial crisis, and higher commodity/oil prices, the US Fed has no other choice to but to raise rates to stem inflation. But if they do that, they undo the economic "stimulus" they sought by lowering rates in the first place, causing higher import prices (oil): higher rates and tigher credit. Implications are that buyers being squeeze by dollar depreciation (translation: higher oil prices exacerbated by now supplanting of food crops for biofuels, contributing to higher food prices) Am I missing something here? Is my thinking correct? If there’s a paradox existing in today’s financial markets, then what I read here epitomizes it: With tighter short term credit, due to the financial crisis, and higher commodity/oil prices, the US Fed has no other choice to but to raise rates to stem inflation. But if they do that, they undo the economic “stimulus” they sought by lowering rates in the first place, causing higher import prices (oil): higher rates and tigher credit. Implications are that buyers being squeeze by dollar depreciation (translation: higher oil prices exacerbated by now supplanting of food crops for biofuels, contributing to higher food prices) Am I missing something here? Is my thinking correct?

]]> By: Yves Smith http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7210 Yves Smith Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:12:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7210 Anon of 4:03 PM,<br/><br/>It came in an <a HREF="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/economists-cheery-view-of-credit.html" REL="nofollow">earlier post</a> (see numbered point 5), and per the comments there, informed readers seemed to agree. Anon of 4:03 PM,

It came in an earlier post (see numbered point 5), and per the comments there, informed readers seemed to agree.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7208 Anonymous Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:03:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7208 "the CDS market basically has to keep growing to stand still"<br/><br/>I missed the logic behind this statement. Could you please explain further (or give me a link)?<br/><br/>Thank you! “the CDS market basically has to keep growing to stand still”

I missed the logic behind this statement. Could you please explain further (or give me a link)?

Thank you!

]]> By: interested reader http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7205 interested reader Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:01:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7205 wrt FT server problems: delete your FT cookies folder. It will work again. wrt FT server problems: delete your FT cookies folder. It will work again.

]]> By: minka http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7204 minka Tue, 22 Apr 2008 18:11:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7204 The Fed bailout of Bear Stearns was a bandage not a cure. I don't understand the optimism of the moment because there is no substantive grappling with the imbalances of the market. Especially with the CDS situation. The Fed bailout of Bear Stearns was a bandage not a cure. I don’t understand the optimism of the moment because there is no substantive grappling with the imbalances of the market. Especially with the CDS situation.

]]> By: a http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7192 a Tue, 22 Apr 2008 11:46:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7192 "Germany are seeing more than a wee bit of banking stress..."<br/><br/>And right on cue, Dusseldorfer Hypothekenbank had to be bailed out by a group of German banks yesterday. I'm not sure about the details, but it sounds like the bail-out was to safeguard confidence in the Pfandbrief bond market. “Germany are seeing more than a wee bit of banking stress…”

And right on cue, Dusseldorfer Hypothekenbank had to be bailed out by a group of German banks yesterday. I’m not sure about the details, but it sounds like the bail-out was to safeguard confidence in the Pfandbrief bond market.

]]> By: rw http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7191 rw Tue, 22 Apr 2008 11:35:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7191 There seems to be strong conviction on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate. The deflation argument being, essentially, that the ongoing destruction of credit will cause the value of dollars to rise unless the real money supply is vastly increased which, deflationistas say, is not occuring. Anyone have a proposed final word on this? There seems to be strong conviction on both sides of the inflation/deflation debate. The deflation argument being, essentially, that the ongoing destruction of credit will cause the value of dollars to rise unless the real money supply is vastly increased which, deflationistas say, is not occuring. Anyone have a proposed final word on this?

]]> By: Jojo http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-credit.html#comment-7189 Jojo Tue, 22 Apr 2008 11:14:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/the-credit-crunch-is-dead-long-live-the-credit-crunch/#comment-7189 This period of time is just an interlude, the calm before the next storm hits.<br/><br/>Good article from Mauldin's Outside the Box here:<br/><br/>------------------<br/><br/>This week's Outside the Box is from my friends at Hoisington Management. While somewhat technical, they make the case that a slowdown in consumer spending is inevitable. This is worth taking some time and thinking about. Quoting: "This means that consumer spending increases should be approximately zero for the next three years. Further exacerbating the problem is the personal saving rate which declined from 5.2% in the decade of the 1990s to average 1.3% in the last seven years, and now stands at 0.3%. Should declining wealth, rising unemployment and poor economic conditions cause consumers to begin to save and lift the rate back to the 1.3% average of the past seven years, real consumer spending would experience a multi-year contraction."<br/><br/>If they are right, and the evidence of their research is compelling, then we are in for a much tougher time than the recent stock market rallies suggest. The stock market is not always a leading indicator. This week's letter suggests that businesses that depend on the US consumer for growth may be in trouble.<br/><br/>John Mauldin, Editor<br/>Outside the Box <br/><br/>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/04/21/quarterly-review-and-outlook-first-quarter-2008.aspx This period of time is just an interlude, the calm before the next storm hits.

Good article from Mauldin’s Outside the Box here:

——————

This week’s Outside the Box is from my friends at Hoisington Management. While somewhat technical, they make the case that a slowdown in consumer spending is inevitable. This is worth taking some time and thinking about. Quoting: “This means that consumer spending increases should be approximately zero for the next three years. Further exacerbating the problem is the personal saving rate which declined from 5.2% in the decade of the 1990s to average 1.3% in the last seven years, and now stands at 0.3%. Should declining wealth, rising unemployment and poor economic conditions cause consumers to begin to save and lift the rate back to the 1.3% average of the past seven years, real consumer spending would experience a multi-year contraction.”

If they are right, and the evidence of their research is compelling, then we are in for a much tougher time than the recent stock market rallies suggest. The stock market is not always a leading indicator. This week’s letter suggests that businesses that depend on the US consumer for growth may be in trouble.

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/04/21/quarterly-review-and-outlook-first-quarter-2008.aspx

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