Comments on: Rosner on the Prospects for the Credit Markets (Not for the Fainthearted) http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:07:33 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-8696 Anonymous Thu, 29 May 2008 00:25:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-8696 Excellent, intriguing post!<br/>I was beginning to have doubts as to whether this rebound (in risky assets) was not just a bear-market rally, but to sit out this one seems the better choice. Excellent, intriguing post!
I was beginning to have doubts as to whether this rebound (in risky assets) was not just a bear-market rally, but to sit out this one seems the better choice.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6570 Anonymous Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:11:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6570 i wonder how many 60 year olds at the leading edge of the baby boom have 25 years left on a 30 year mortgage and an equity line? i wonder how many 60 year olds at the leading edge of the baby boom have 25 years left on a 30 year mortgage and an equity line?

]]> By: Economist Esq http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6565 Economist Esq Tue, 08 Apr 2008 20:47:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6565 http://regulatoryeconomist.blogspot.com/2008/04/policy-response-to-credit-crunch.html<br/><br/>The IRA is a little too casual in the way it flings around comments like "Bernanke seems completely co-opted." Nonetheless, this is a good read and a nice writeup. http://regulatoryeconomist.blogspot.com/2008/04/policy-response-to-credit-crunch.html

The IRA is a little too casual in the way it flings around comments like “Bernanke seems completely co-opted.” Nonetheless, this is a good read and a nice writeup.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6553 Anonymous Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:26:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6553 It is simply axiomatic, we hedge funds are smarter than the common person and we understand risk beter and better everyday. We are the future, because we are unregulated!<br/><br/><br/>KKR raises $17.6bn global fund<br/>The global buyout firm has closed its KKR 2006 fund slightly shy of its $18 billion hard cap.<br/><br/>http://www.peimedia.com/Article.aspx?article=14116&hashID=93CB92F21FBE5483CB8B153197848BF05F6B5D66<br/><br/><br/>Re: necdotally, investors have recently been turning to mid-market managers, who they believe are less reliant on leverage for their deals. US alternative investment firm The Blackstone Group has delayed the first close of its $20 billion (€12.6 billion) fundraising from April to June, according to trade newsletter Private Equity Insider.<br/><br/>But an investor in Blackstone’s fund said any delay would be insignificant to Blackstone. “Blackstone doesn’t need to wait. It’s simply, like most buyout firms, they have a large investor base and higher complexity to deal with all the different legal paperwork.”<br/><br/>He said firms like CVC Capital Partners and TPG Capital are actively working on their planned funds. “TPG’s global fund could be above $20 billion and they have already got past $10 billion,” he said. CVC’s European fundraising effort had been thought to be closing as high as €12.1 billion, a European record, but it is now understood that it may close lower than this total but at €11 billion in the first half, according to an investor in the firm. It is simply axiomatic, we hedge funds are smarter than the common person and we understand risk beter and better everyday. We are the future, because we are unregulated!

KKR raises $17.6bn global fund
The global buyout firm has closed its KKR 2006 fund slightly shy of its $18 billion hard cap.

http://www.peimedia.com/Article.aspx?article=14116&hashID=93CB92F21FBE5483CB8B153197848BF05F6B5D66

Re: necdotally, investors have recently been turning to mid-market managers, who they believe are less reliant on leverage for their deals. US alternative investment firm The Blackstone Group has delayed the first close of its $20 billion (€12.6 billion) fundraising from April to June, according to trade newsletter Private Equity Insider.

But an investor in Blackstone’s fund said any delay would be insignificant to Blackstone. “Blackstone doesn’t need to wait. It’s simply, like most buyout firms, they have a large investor base and higher complexity to deal with all the different legal paperwork.”

He said firms like CVC Capital Partners and TPG Capital are actively working on their planned funds. “TPG’s global fund could be above $20 billion and they have already got past $10 billion,” he said. CVC’s European fundraising effort had been thought to be closing as high as €12.1 billion, a European record, but it is now understood that it may close lower than this total but at €11 billion in the first half, according to an investor in the firm.

]]> By: anon http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6551 anon Tue, 08 Apr 2008 14:28:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6551 "Rosner: There is a lack of appreciation or maybe a lack of understanding between these two issues, mark to market losses and actual credit losses, and we need to distinguish between these two issues"<br/><br/>He certainly hasn't cleared up the understanding. The issue is whether current MTM is indicative of future credit losses - not that there is some sort of systematic economic difference between the two. I don't trust armageddon forecasting on the basis of sloppy analysis. “Rosner: There is a lack of appreciation or maybe a lack of understanding between these two issues, mark to market losses and actual credit losses, and we need to distinguish between these two issues”

He certainly hasn’t cleared up the understanding. The issue is whether current MTM is indicative of future credit losses – not that there is some sort of systematic economic difference between the two. I don’t trust armageddon forecasting on the basis of sloppy analysis.

]]> By: Richard Kline http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6547 Richard Kline Tue, 08 Apr 2008 13:44:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6547 On Rosner, it's a pleasure to see someone actually call it like he sees it in words of few syllables. Truth telling is the anodyne to the daily obfuscations from Voices of Responsibility. <br/><br/>MTM losses: "We think the loan isn't worth it's face value."<br/><br/>Credit losses: "We know the collateral isn't worth the loan value . . . cause a lot of the time the collateral is worth zero."<br/><br/>That's a big difference.<br/><br/>And those Landesbanks, whoa doggie them's some big bites. I can see from that perspective why he wants to be short the euro, yessir. Spain has been the most hideous property bubble of 'em all, and unwinding it will be a toughie. Europe has the money; it may not want to spend it that way, that's the rub. On Rosner, it’s a pleasure to see someone actually call it like he sees it in words of few syllables. Truth telling is the anodyne to the daily obfuscations from Voices of Responsibility.

MTM losses: “We think the loan isn’t worth it’s face value.”

Credit losses: “We know the collateral isn’t worth the loan value . . . cause a lot of the time the collateral is worth zero.”

That’s a big difference.

And those Landesbanks, whoa doggie them’s some big bites. I can see from that perspective why he wants to be short the euro, yessir. Spain has been the most hideous property bubble of ‘em all, and unwinding it will be a toughie. Europe has the money; it may not want to spend it that way, that’s the rub.

]]> By: anon http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6541 anon Tue, 08 Apr 2008 11:57:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6541 What's he getting at re the difference between MTM losses and actual credit losses?<br/><br/>MTM on mortgage securities is the market's attempt to estimate future cash flow (credit) shortfalls on the underlying mortgages.<br/><br/>He talks about it as if credit losses on mortgages for example are over and above and separate from MTM losses on mortgages. What's he talking about? MTM losses are an estimate that are subject to future adjustment, up or down, depending on the actual credit outcome.<br/><br/>Illogical hyperbole on this issue at least. What’s he getting at re the difference between MTM losses and actual credit losses?

MTM on mortgage securities is the market’s attempt to estimate future cash flow (credit) shortfalls on the underlying mortgages.

He talks about it as if credit losses on mortgages for example are over and above and separate from MTM losses on mortgages. What’s he talking about? MTM losses are an estimate that are subject to future adjustment, up or down, depending on the actual credit outcome.

Illogical hyperbole on this issue at least.

]]> By: a http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6540 a Tue, 08 Apr 2008 10:41:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6540 Truly excellent. Much thanks for posting this. Truly excellent. Much thanks for posting this.

]]> By: eh http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6535 eh Tue, 08 Apr 2008 08:43:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6535 I see you posted on commented on the Greenspan/FT anti mea culpa earlier. Sorry. I see you posted on commented on the Greenspan/FT anti mea culpa earlier. Sorry.

]]> By: eh http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-prospects-for-credit-markets.html#comment-6534 eh Tue, 08 Apr 2008 08:21:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/rosner-on-the-prospects-for-the-credit-markets-not-for-the-fainthearted/#comment-6534 Very interesting. However, I expect the anti-Rosner, second half 2008 happy talk to continue to drive the markets higher.<br/><br/>More about Greenspan <a HREF="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aK6fhJY95tPg" REL="nofollow">here in Bloomberg</a> and <a HREF="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/81c05200-03f2-11dd-b28b-000077b07658.html" REL="nofollow">here in the FT</a> (the FT oped is referenced in the Bloomberg piece). He really comes off as a smug, self-serving jerk. Very interesting. However, I expect the anti-Rosner, second half 2008 happy talk to continue to drive the markets higher.

More about Greenspan here in Bloomberg and here in the FT (the FT oped is referenced in the Bloomberg piece). He really comes off as a smug, self-serving jerk.

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