Comments on: Buffett: US Probably Less Than Halfway Through Effects of Credit Crisis http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 07:56:24 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: bobo7874 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html#comment-8269 bobo7874 Tue, 20 May 2008 00:19:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway-through-effects-of-credit-crisis/#comment-8269 "Observer" is right, according to Whitney Tilson's notes from Berkshire's 2007 shareholder meeting: "There will be consequences for these people, but the question is whether it spreads. If unemployment and interest rates don’t go up, then it’s unlikely this factor alone triggers anything in the general economy."<br/><br/>Here is a linke to Tilson's notes: http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsight.com/bonus/pdf/Tilson_2007_BRK_Meeting_Notes.pdf “Observer” is right, according to Whitney Tilson’s notes from Berkshire’s 2007 shareholder meeting: “There will be consequences for these people, but the question is whether it spreads. If unemployment and interest rates don’t go up, then it’s unlikely this factor alone triggers anything in the general economy.”

Here is a linke to Tilson’s notes: http://www.designs.valueinvestorinsight.com/bonus/pdf/Tilson_2007_BRK_Meeting_Notes.pdf

]]> By: An observer http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html#comment-8268 An observer Mon, 19 May 2008 22:49:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway-through-effects-of-credit-crisis/#comment-8268 I was at the Berkshire shareholder meeting last year in which Buffett was asked to comment on the implications of the real estate bubble for the economy. I believe that that is the quote that the news story above is all about. What Buffett actually said as I recall, and I was listening closely even though not taking notes, was that he didn't think that the popping of the real estate bubble would cause a recession, *as long as unemployment rates stayed low*. That's a big, big, qualification regarding the unemployment rate! In other words, I don't think he really was in the camp of saying subprime is contained. Rather, he was just sort of cleverly avoiding the question, by adding the qualification that it would not matter, as long as the plunge was not big enough to move the unemployment up much. He answered it circularly, in other words...but you had to be listening closely, probably more closely than the average reporter is listening, to catch it. Hard to blame him because he's in a position where he really has to avoid saying anything that might cause the average listener to freak out. Again, all from memory, but I was listening closely and it made a big impression on me at the time. I was at the Berkshire shareholder meeting last year in which Buffett was asked to comment on the implications of the real estate bubble for the economy. I believe that that is the quote that the news story above is all about. What Buffett actually said as I recall, and I was listening closely even though not taking notes, was that he didn’t think that the popping of the real estate bubble would cause a recession, *as long as unemployment rates stayed low*. That’s a big, big, qualification regarding the unemployment rate! In other words, I don’t think he really was in the camp of saying subprime is contained. Rather, he was just sort of cleverly avoiding the question, by adding the qualification that it would not matter, as long as the plunge was not big enough to move the unemployment up much. He answered it circularly, in other words…but you had to be listening closely, probably more closely than the average reporter is listening, to catch it. Hard to blame him because he’s in a position where he really has to avoid saying anything that might cause the average listener to freak out. Again, all from memory, but I was listening closely and it made a big impression on me at the time.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html#comment-8266 Anonymous Mon, 19 May 2008 21:24:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway-through-effects-of-credit-crisis/#comment-8266 Not the same anonymous but what the hey<br/><br/>http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/buffett-says-subprime-crisis-not/story.aspx?guid=%7B075F9A09-6B32-484C-8B57-D9811F351B05%7D Not the same anonymous but what the hey

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/buffett-says-subprime-crisis-not/story.aspx?guid=%7B075F9A09-6B32-484C-8B57-D9811F351B05%7D

]]> By: Francois http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html#comment-8265 Francois Mon, 19 May 2008 20:50:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway-through-effects-of-credit-crisis/#comment-8265 "Note that Buffet was in the subprime-is-contained camp a year ago."<br/><br/>Could you post the link to this comment please? I'd be curious to read what was his thinking at the time.<br/><br/>Thank you “Note that Buffet was in the subprime-is-contained camp a year ago.”

Could you post the link to this comment please? I’d be curious to read what was his thinking at the time.

Thank you

]]> By: Francois http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html#comment-8264 Francois Mon, 19 May 2008 20:48:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway-through-effects-of-credit-crisis/#comment-8264 I agree with Buffet's current assessment. But take it from a guy like David Rosenberg Chief Econ for North America @ Merril.<br/><br/>http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/rosenberg-debunking-five-myths.html I agree with Buffet’s current assessment. But take it from a guy like David Rosenberg Chief Econ for North America @ Merril.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/rosenberg-debunking-five-myths.html

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway.html#comment-8263 Anonymous Mon, 19 May 2008 20:45:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/buffett-us-probably-less-than-halfway-through-effects-of-credit-crisis/#comment-8263 Note that Buffet was in the subprime-is-contained camp a year ago. Note that Buffet was in the subprime-is-contained camp a year ago.

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