Comments on: Doubts About Oil Demand http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:46:10 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8775 Anonymous Fri, 30 May 2008 18:42:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8775 Strong relationship between increase in living standards and oil usage. Seems the emerging third world rapid growth is really based not on fundamentals but oil subsidies. Shock and awe await these countries.<br/>The decouple theory is really based on how long these gov't can keep up these subsidies, good luck! Strong relationship between increase in living standards and oil usage. Seems the emerging third world rapid growth is really based not on fundamentals but oil subsidies. Shock and awe await these countries.
The decouple theory is really based on how long these gov’t can keep up these subsidies, good luck!

]]> By: wprestong http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8772 wprestong Fri, 30 May 2008 17:07:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8772 NYMEX is increasing margin requirements on oil futures. Also some other contracts. See their press release at<br/>http://nymex.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1868 NYMEX is increasing margin requirements on oil futures. Also some other contracts. See their press release at
http://nymex.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1868

]]> By: mxq http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8770 mxq Fri, 30 May 2008 16:22:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8770 Anon @ 10:50 - <br/><br/>"So why is the CFTC so schizophrenic in their analysis? Why can they see manipulation in energy, where the supply demand problem is obvious as Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens have shown." <br/><br/>That's just it...the cftc <b>doesn't</b> "see" manipulation in energy. I'm not sure where you see them acknowledging this. <br/><br/>What they are doing is investigating it - as they should be doing with ALL commodities (including silver). <br/><br/><br/>Back to Yves:<br/><br/>"oil trading failed to provide the more detailed breakout"<br/><br/>I'm wondering if this has anything to do with the "enron loophole?" Although that has recently been closed, i wonder what the timeline is for when they WILL show it.<br/><br/>Also, my favorite line from the WSJ article from above was from Paul Pantano, "a Washington lawyer who represents many energy traders":<br/><br/>"Commercial parties and speculators are operating in a market where the rules about what is considered manipulative conduct versus legitimate trading activity are not very clear."<br/><br/>Wow. Does this mean traders don't even <i>know</i> if they were cornering the markets? Or is this pre-emptive, in defense of traders that knowingly did? Anon @ 10:50 –

“So why is the CFTC so schizophrenic in their analysis? Why can they see manipulation in energy, where the supply demand problem is obvious as Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens have shown.”

That’s just it…the cftc doesn’t “see” manipulation in energy. I’m not sure where you see them acknowledging this.

What they are doing is investigating it – as they should be doing with ALL commodities (including silver).

Back to Yves:

“oil trading failed to provide the more detailed breakout”

I’m wondering if this has anything to do with the “enron loophole?” Although that has recently been closed, i wonder what the timeline is for when they WILL show it.

Also, my favorite line from the WSJ article from above was from Paul Pantano, “a Washington lawyer who represents many energy traders”:

“Commercial parties and speculators are operating in a market where the rules about what is considered manipulative conduct versus legitimate trading activity are not very clear.”

Wow. Does this mean traders don’t even know if they were cornering the markets? Or is this pre-emptive, in defense of traders that knowingly did?

]]> By: Scott http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8768 Scott Fri, 30 May 2008 15:00:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8768 The fact that it is only now that foreign governments are bringing "hundreds of millions of consumers face to face with the true market cost of oil" really needs to be brought to the attention of the US public and policymakers. While improved energy efficiency remains an important goal for the US, the lack of incentive for consumers in these other countries to be more energy efficient has obviously been an important driver of demand. I expect that foreign demand will drop off sharply as these subsidies are eliminated, relieving demand pressure and thereby some of the price pressure. The fact that it is only now that foreign governments are bringing “hundreds of millions of consumers face to face with the true market cost of oil” really needs to be brought to the attention of the US public and policymakers. While improved energy efficiency remains an important goal for the US, the lack of incentive for consumers in these other countries to be more energy efficient has obviously been an important driver of demand. I expect that foreign demand will drop off sharply as these subsidies are eliminated, relieving demand pressure and thereby some of the price pressure.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8767 Anonymous Fri, 30 May 2008 14:50:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8767 Bogus. The CFTC sees manipulation and speculation in the energy markets, yet in the silver market they see no sign of manipulation. Observers have reported that the bullish speculation in oil is only 1/3 the bearish speculation in silver. Yes, the big boys are allowed to keep the price of silver low by playing games in the paper silver markets... <br/><br/>From Ted Butler: "For the COT of 5/25/04, the eight largest traders were net short 180 million ounces of silver futures. At the recent extreme on 3/11/08 they held more than 400 million ounces short." I think that's like 6-9 months of the world's entire silver output, yet the CFTC is perfectly fine with it. Move right along...<br/><br/>So why is the CFTC so schizophrenic in their analysis? Why can they see manipulation in energy, where the supply demand problem is obvious as Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens have shown; yet the CFTC blindly ignores the obvious problem in the silver market??<br/><br/>No wonder there are so many conspiracy theories out there. Somethin' smells bad. Bogus. The CFTC sees manipulation and speculation in the energy markets, yet in the silver market they see no sign of manipulation. Observers have reported that the bullish speculation in oil is only 1/3 the bearish speculation in silver. Yes, the big boys are allowed to keep the price of silver low by playing games in the paper silver markets…

From Ted Butler: “For the COT of 5/25/04, the eight largest traders were net short 180 million ounces of silver futures. At the recent extreme on 3/11/08 they held more than 400 million ounces short.” I think that’s like 6-9 months of the world’s entire silver output, yet the CFTC is perfectly fine with it. Move right along…

So why is the CFTC so schizophrenic in their analysis? Why can they see manipulation in energy, where the supply demand problem is obvious as Matt Simmons and Boone Pickens have shown; yet the CFTC blindly ignores the obvious problem in the silver market??

No wonder there are so many conspiracy theories out there. Somethin’ smells bad.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8765 Anonymous Fri, 30 May 2008 14:17:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8765 Looks like $200 oil should take care of global warming. Hail to the people who wanted market forces to solve the global warming problem. Looks like $200 oil should take care of global warming. Hail to the people who wanted market forces to solve the global warming problem.

]]> By: slg http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand.html#comment-8764 slg Fri, 30 May 2008 13:43:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/doubts-about-oil-demand/#comment-8764 Masters may not be such a disinterested party as he claimed:<br/><br/>http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/05/more-fun-with-michael-masters-paper.html Masters may not be such a disinterested party as he claimed:

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com/2008/05/more-fun-with-michael-masters-paper.html

]]>