Comments on: MBIA Reports $2.4 Billion 1Q Loss, Downstreams Cash to Sub http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:17:20 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Richard Kline http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss.html#comment-8010 Richard Kline Tue, 13 May 2008 22:46:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss-downstreams-cash-to-sub/#comment-8010 "Attention gettin . . . . ." Yessir, losing both legs at the hip without subsequent cauterization does have an impact, especially after already having one's right arm blown off. The modo/duolines are so dead it would take the Monty Python team to do their justice to their final undulations. <br/><br/>The newspapers and the markets generally are in the 'blood oxygen isn't getting to the brain' stage. Oils drops from $126 to $124 and we're told it's cause for a market rally. A monoline reports $3.6B in swap losses, and someone says, "It's all priced in now, Mama." *yeesh* “Attention gettin . . . . .” Yessir, losing both legs at the hip without subsequent cauterization does have an impact, especially after already having one’s right arm blown off. The modo/duolines are so dead it would take the Monty Python team to do their justice to their final undulations.

The newspapers and the markets generally are in the ‘blood oxygen isn’t getting to the brain’ stage. Oils drops from $126 to $124 and we’re told it’s cause for a market rally. A monoline reports $3.6B in swap losses, and someone says, “It’s all priced in now, Mama.” *yeesh*

]]> By: Ginger Yellow http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss.html#comment-7954 Ginger Yellow Mon, 12 May 2008 21:24:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss-downstreams-cash-to-sub/#comment-7954 Speaking of stress tests, I noticed something a bit odd in the 10-Q. I may be misreading it (I only skim-read it), but it seemed to say that their base case loss estimates for subprime portfolios were 16%-20%, while the stress case was 18%-22%. That doesn't seem like much of a stress to me, and is far below ABX-implied losses. Even if you don't think the ABX is a realistic or applicable base case, surely it should be covered by your stress test. Speaking of stress tests, I noticed something a bit odd in the 10-Q. I may be misreading it (I only skim-read it), but it seemed to say that their base case loss estimates for subprime portfolios were 16%-20%, while the stress case was 18%-22%. That doesn’t seem like much of a stress to me, and is far below ABX-implied losses. Even if you don’t think the ABX is a realistic or applicable base case, surely it should be covered by your stress test.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss.html#comment-7951 Anonymous Mon, 12 May 2008 20:37:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss-downstreams-cash-to-sub/#comment-7951 One interesting comment was the auditors only look at the reserves and losses on an annual basis. They can pretty much say anything they want for awhile... One interesting comment was the auditors only look at the reserves and losses on an annual basis. They can pretty much say anything they want for awhile…

]]> By: RK http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss.html#comment-7949 RK Mon, 12 May 2008 20:32:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss-downstreams-cash-to-sub/#comment-7949 Eric Dinallo appeared on CNBC today at 11:30 and said that, while the loss was greater than "analysts estimates", it was within the "stress test " estimates worked out between the rating agencies and NYS insurance commissioner's office. He also spoke about the question of whether CDS constituted insurance, and spoke of the differential treatment which perhaps should be given to CDS which actually hedge a real position (such as a bond) and CDS which are purely <br/>options on a given event. Eric Dinallo appeared on CNBC today at 11:30 and said that, while the loss was greater than “analysts estimates”, it was within the “stress test ” estimates worked out between the rating agencies and NYS insurance commissioner’s office. He also spoke about the question of whether CDS constituted insurance, and spoke of the differential treatment which perhaps should be given to CDS which actually hedge a real position (such as a bond) and CDS which are purely
options on a given event.

]]> By: James http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss.html#comment-7945 James Mon, 12 May 2008 18:57:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/mbia-reports-24-billion-1q-loss-downstreams-cash-to-sub/#comment-7945 The US is in the biggest period of denial ever. The US is in the biggest period of denial ever.

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