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	<title>Comments on: Scary Bad Increase in Chinese Foreign Currency Reserves</title>
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	<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html</link>
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		<title>By: Lune</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8684</link>
		<dc:creator>Lune</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2008 20:17:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I think you answered your own question, Yves: &quot;Any pegged currency right now looks like the safest financial bet in town.&quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Since the U.S. has no capital controls, it&#039;s easy to convert the dollar into RMB (maybe not for us retail investors, but surely for the big boys). As confidence in the dollar has fallen, people are rapidly moving money into other accounts. Given the uncertainty of the Euro (dependent on what the ECB will do with interest rates), and the Yen (carry trade vagaries and fear of the Japanese housewife :-), the RMB is your best bet.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I wouldn&#039;t be surprised if much of the hot flows are small transactions by Americans fleeing their domestic currency.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you answered your own question, Yves: &#8220;Any pegged currency right now looks like the safest financial bet in town.&#8221;</p>
<p>Since the U.S. has no capital controls, it&#8217;s easy to convert the dollar into RMB (maybe not for us retail investors, but surely for the big boys). As confidence in the dollar has fallen, people are rapidly moving money into other accounts. Given the uncertainty of the Euro (dependent on what the ECB will do with interest rates), and the Yen (carry trade vagaries and fear of the Japanese housewife <img src='http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> , the RMB is your best bet.</p>
<p>I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if much of the hot flows are small transactions by Americans fleeing their domestic currency.</p>
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		<title>By: eTrader</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8655</link>
		<dc:creator>eTrader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2008 12:48:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>China traditionally has bad reputation of statistics. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;In the &quot;Great Leap&quot; era, each local government reported inflated supply /demand of foods, materials, and population and central government just believed them. In the real world, more than tens of millions people suffered in starvation, while local elites got decorations from the communist party.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;We might be witnessing a repetition of Great Leap. The central government asked to banks to increase their reserve. Chances are... some of, if not all of, those banks might have reported highly inflated numbers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>China traditionally has bad reputation of statistics. </p>
<p>In the &#8220;Great Leap&#8221; era, each local government reported inflated supply /demand of foods, materials, and population and central government just believed them. In the real world, more than tens of millions people suffered in starvation, while local elites got decorations from the communist party.</p>
<p>We might be witnessing a repetition of Great Leap. The central government asked to banks to increase their reserve. Chances are&#8230; some of, if not all of, those banks might have reported highly inflated numbers.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8630</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 May 2008 01:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>From here in GW deficit land,  looking at the 2000 US budget surplus sitting in the PBoC&#039;s account makes me nostalgic for the good old days.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From here in GW deficit land,  looking at the 2000 US budget surplus sitting in the PBoC&#8217;s account makes me nostalgic for the good old days.</p>
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		<title>By: bugly</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8619</link>
		<dc:creator>bugly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 21:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>P.S.  be aware that the carry cost for a leveraged position is significant, and if it doesn&#039;t move much your profit will be rapidly eroded by the interest- you can trust me on this one as I have personal experience.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>P.S.  be aware that the carry cost for a leveraged position is significant, and if it doesn&#8217;t move much your profit will be rapidly eroded by the interest- you can trust me on this one as I have personal experience.</p>
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		<title>By: bugly</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8618</link>
		<dc:creator>bugly</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 21:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>you can trade CNY-USD at OANDA.com- it&#039;s well capitalized broker.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>you can trade CNY-USD at OANDA.com- it&#8217;s well capitalized broker.</p>
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		<title>By: martinb</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8615</link>
		<dc:creator>martinb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 19:59:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Double counting of reserves perhaps?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Double counting of reserves perhaps?</p>
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		<title>By: Dan</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8612</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 18:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>How about purchasing Hong Kong dollars?  It&#039;s buying most of its imports from Mainland China with a currency essentially pegged to USDs...This currency is bound to get stressed.  Gonna be pressure to either peg to Yuan or re-adjust the trading band sometime.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How about purchasing Hong Kong dollars?  It&#8217;s buying most of its imports from Mainland China with a currency essentially pegged to USDs&#8230;This currency is bound to get stressed.  Gonna be pressure to either peg to Yuan or re-adjust the trading band sometime.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8609</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 18:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Could it be that some of it is in Euros etc, and so the dollar depreciation in Q1 means reserve growth expressed in dollars?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Could it be that some of it is in Euros etc, and so the dollar depreciation in Q1 means reserve growth expressed in dollars?</p>
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		<title>By: chegewara</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8607</link>
		<dc:creator>chegewara</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 18:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>not surprised at all to see accelerating inflows. as panic about dollar reaches histeria search for alternatives drives hot money flows. disregarding that china is really a bigger problem than US. all this CNY speculation (and you can buy ETFs and institutional investors can buy NDFs too - it&#039;s a very liquid market) is going to end up very badly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>not surprised at all to see accelerating inflows. as panic about dollar reaches histeria search for alternatives drives hot money flows. disregarding that china is really a bigger problem than US. all this CNY speculation (and you can buy ETFs and institutional investors can buy NDFs too &#8211; it&#8217;s a very liquid market) is going to end up very badly.</p>
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		<title>By: Justin</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/scary-bad-increase-in-chinese-foreign.html#comment-8606</link>
		<dc:creator>Justin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 17:53:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I just wanted to mention Wisdomtree&#039;s new yuan money market ETF, CYB, though I&#039;m not sure it&#039;s any less willie-inducing than CNY. But it&#039;s close to its NAV!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just wanted to mention Wisdomtree&#8217;s new yuan money market ETF, CYB, though I&#8217;m not sure it&#8217;s any less willie-inducing than CNY. But it&#8217;s close to its NAV!</p>
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