Comments on: Setser: Real Export Growth Stalls http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:56:52 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html#comment-7863 Anonymous Sun, 11 May 2008 04:59:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls/#comment-7863 Re: "You'd never detect that worrisome pattern from the mainstream press. "<br/><br/>It is great to see blogs like yours making headroads into the mainstream distribution of info. This is a big part of the future, in that people like you and this type of blog are needed to cut thru the crap that is being spun by corporate spinners that want a political agenda bias that is false and misleading!<br/><br/>Keep up the great job and may you prosper!<br/><br/>I'm going to start using Mainstream links less often! Re: “You’d never detect that worrisome pattern from the mainstream press. “

It is great to see blogs like yours making headroads into the mainstream distribution of info. This is a big part of the future, in that people like you and this type of blog are needed to cut thru the crap that is being spun by corporate spinners that want a political agenda bias that is false and misleading!

Keep up the great job and may you prosper!

I’m going to start using Mainstream links less often!

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html#comment-7856 Anonymous Sat, 10 May 2008 14:50:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls/#comment-7856 Boeing Co. and Machinists union representatives met Friday to open contract talks, exchanging proposals on pay, pensions, health care and other issues.<br/><br/>http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=6703334&action=article<br/><br/>With the ripoff Bernankie is passing out to American workers I doubt if Boeing will be making many planes when these guys go on strike. Boeing Co. and Machinists union representatives met Friday to open contract talks, exchanging proposals on pay, pensions, health care and other issues.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=6703334&action=article

With the ripoff Bernankie is passing out to American workers I doubt if Boeing will be making many planes when these guys go on strike.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html#comment-7853 Anonymous Sat, 10 May 2008 13:52:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls/#comment-7853 Yves -- it turns out your compliment was premature at best; there was a small error in my post. q1 08/ q1 07 Non-ag non-industrial supply growth was 8.8% -- not 5.2% as I initially wrote. A calculating error on my part. Volume growth on the same measure was 8.2%. That looks good -- not much margin expansion.<br/><br/>The problem is that q4/q1 and q4/q3 data suggest real export growth (annualized) is running at 3-4% now, so a much slower pace than earlier in the year. the fact real goods export growth has been slow for 2qs suggests to me that it isn't just a monthly boeing blip.<br/><br/>bsetser<br/><br/>bsetser Yves — it turns out your compliment was premature at best; there was a small error in my post. q1 08/ q1 07 Non-ag non-industrial supply growth was 8.8% — not 5.2% as I initially wrote. A calculating error on my part. Volume growth on the same measure was 8.2%. That looks good — not much margin expansion.

The problem is that q4/q1 and q4/q3 data suggest real export growth (annualized) is running at 3-4% now, so a much slower pace than earlier in the year. the fact real goods export growth has been slow for 2qs suggests to me that it isn’t just a monthly boeing blip.

bsetser

bsetser

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html#comment-7852 Anonymous Sat, 10 May 2008 13:37:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls/#comment-7852 I've also been worrying about polluted food. In 2006 I stopped buying fruit and vegetables from China and when garbage was piling up in the streets of Naples I heard that area is one of the worst polluted in western Europe with high incidences of cancer. That convinced me to stop buying Italian except when it's clearly stated that the consumables come from another region of Italy. I’ve also been worrying about polluted food. In 2006 I stopped buying fruit and vegetables from China and when garbage was piling up in the streets of Naples I heard that area is one of the worst polluted in western Europe with high incidences of cancer. That convinced me to stop buying Italian except when it’s clearly stated that the consumables come from another region of Italy.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html#comment-7851 Anonymous Sat, 10 May 2008 13:15:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls/#comment-7851 Yves -- Thanks for the compliment. My first job at the US Treasury involved tracking the trade data (among other things), so also thank the US taxpayer. I agree with your point on toxic toys and Heparin -- clearly, I need to spend more time in the 'burbs. A few additional points.<br/><br/>a) the 5.2% y/y increase in nominal non-ag, non-industrial supplies exports (comparing q1 08 to q1 07) really shouldn't be compared with the monthly fall. A better comparison would be with the y/y increase in real goods exports from q1 07 to q1 08 (I'll dig up that number later) -- or even better, real goods ex ag and ex industrial supplies on a y/y basis. I suspect there has been some volume increase as there was a big jump in volumes in q2 and q3 of last year. I should have been a bit clearer on this.<br/><br/>b) some of the march down blip is planes; the street is right to highlight the $1.5b fall in Boeing deliveries abroad. aircraft can drive fairly large swings in the monthly export number. But I suspect that if you compare q4 real goods exports to q1 real goods exports they will be close to flat. that is the underlying worry. the pace of growth in civil aircraft exports also has slowed (tho they are up y/y) i think because of capacity constraints.<br/>c) I should look at the real volume data for ag and industrial supplies. the "ports clogged" stories suggest some growth in volumes not just values, but part of that may be due to the fall in incoming containers. lots more containers are now going to the Gulf and Europe with ASian goods these days than in the past.<br/>d) net exports could still contribute positively to growth in a mechanical sense if real imports fall and real exports stall. basically, us suppliers would be taking some of the pain of the slowdown in US consumption (non-oil consumption) reducing the hit to US activity. But that isn't quite as nice a story as booming exports.<br/><br/>bsetser Yves — Thanks for the compliment. My first job at the US Treasury involved tracking the trade data (among other things), so also thank the US taxpayer. I agree with your point on toxic toys and Heparin — clearly, I need to spend more time in the ‘burbs. A few additional points.

a) the 5.2% y/y increase in nominal non-ag, non-industrial supplies exports (comparing q1 08 to q1 07) really shouldn’t be compared with the monthly fall. A better comparison would be with the y/y increase in real goods exports from q1 07 to q1 08 (I’ll dig up that number later) — or even better, real goods ex ag and ex industrial supplies on a y/y basis. I suspect there has been some volume increase as there was a big jump in volumes in q2 and q3 of last year. I should have been a bit clearer on this.

b) some of the march down blip is planes; the street is right to highlight the $1.5b fall in Boeing deliveries abroad. aircraft can drive fairly large swings in the monthly export number. But I suspect that if you compare q4 real goods exports to q1 real goods exports they will be close to flat. that is the underlying worry. the pace of growth in civil aircraft exports also has slowed (tho they are up y/y) i think because of capacity constraints.
c) I should look at the real volume data for ag and industrial supplies. the “ports clogged” stories suggest some growth in volumes not just values, but part of that may be due to the fall in incoming containers. lots more containers are now going to the Gulf and Europe with ASian goods these days than in the past.
d) net exports could still contribute positively to growth in a mechanical sense if real imports fall and real exports stall. basically, us suppliers would be taking some of the pain of the slowdown in US consumption (non-oil consumption) reducing the hit to US activity. But that isn’t quite as nice a story as booming exports.

bsetser

]]> By: Richard Kline http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls.html#comment-7850 Richard Kline Sat, 10 May 2008 11:05:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/setser-real-export-growth-stalls/#comment-7850 I have been waiting for just this number, and was unsurprised that Brad Setser was on top of the issue. As I rather suspected, there is much less to the 'Export-led Recovery' than meets the eye: we are, fundamentally, exporting commodities, both agriculturals, and refined products like chemicals and petrochemicals. Finished manufactures are not rising at a rate which will in any way address our long-term BoP issues. We need to take a long look in the mirror as a country, swear of the sauce, and come up with a national economic policy; like, yesterday. I have been waiting for just this number, and was unsurprised that Brad Setser was on top of the issue. As I rather suspected, there is much less to the ‘Export-led Recovery’ than meets the eye: we are, fundamentally, exporting commodities, both agriculturals, and refined products like chemicals and petrochemicals. Finished manufactures are not rising at a rate which will in any way address our long-term BoP issues. We need to take a long look in the mirror as a country, swear of the sauce, and come up with a national economic policy; like, yesterday.

]]>