Comments on: "Hot money poses risks to China’s stability" http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/hot-money-poses-risks-to-chinas.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:06:33 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Doc Holiday http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/hot-money-poses-risks-to-chinas.html#comment-11322 Doc Holiday Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:10:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/hot-money-poses-risks-to-china%e2%80%99s-stability/#comment-11322 Last week I came over from The Dark side and thought those cunning folks in China were smart to be obtaining cheap US dollars, because it was likely that oil would fall and the buck would spike, however, with all these banks going down, and Fannie, freddie and this systemic re-engineering, I'm back to the Dark Side and think the dollar will eat these poor people alive and that the old bet is off and they are holding trash in what amounts to a liquidity trap! Oil will spike and the buck will crash! Last week I came over from The Dark side and thought those cunning folks in China were smart to be obtaining cheap US dollars, because it was likely that oil would fall and the buck would spike, however, with all these banks going down, and Fannie, freddie and this systemic re-engineering, I’m back to the Dark Side and think the dollar will eat these poor people alive and that the old bet is off and they are holding trash in what amounts to a liquidity trap! Oil will spike and the buck will crash!

]]> By: Rick http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/hot-money-poses-risks-to-chinas.html#comment-11295 Rick Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:07:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/hot-money-poses-risks-to-china%e2%80%99s-stability/#comment-11295 Tom Malthus at seekingalpha.com takes a look at hot money flows in "China's Impending Financial Crisis". He points out a new twist -<br/><br/>"'hot money' that may be hidden within the sector (i.e. through over-invoicing). Some estimates have placed the amount of hot money hidden within the sector at around 2% of exports."<br/><br/>He also projects forward to when the appreciation of the yuan might turn to depreciation to reverse the flow of hot money. Tom Malthus at seekingalpha.com takes a look at hot money flows in “China’s Impending Financial Crisis”. He points out a new twist -

“‘hot money’ that may be hidden within the sector (i.e. through over-invoicing). Some estimates have placed the amount of hot money hidden within the sector at around 2% of exports.”

He also projects forward to when the appreciation of the yuan might turn to depreciation to reverse the flow of hot money.

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