Comments on: Will Japan’s Lost Decade Become the Norm? http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:41:41 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Walt French http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11197 Walt French Sun, 13 Jul 2008 05:29:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11197 <i>"...Who shaves the barber?"</i> I don't have the original Bertrand Russell quote, so the answer -- highly relevant to the assumption that Yves is male -- that the barber is a woman -- is probably a cop-out: the original likely forces the self-referential paradox.<br/><br/>And are we in such a paradox, where our logic is doomed to fail? The arguments here are too fast & loose to be subjected to such rigor. Claims that we're headed for a decade or more of slow growth may be true, or may not, without any reference to the reasons we give. A society produces what it is willing to. <b>*I*</b> think the US has lost most of its vitality, and the emergerers will be making news as they rise to our level of productivity.<br/><br/>Finally, the notion that Green is a cost, not a benefit: it's always been both. We have given very short shrift to externalities of our development, but it's now obvious to many that choking ourselves to death is not "economic progress." You can think of it as people ALWAYS liked fresh air, water, etc., but never had to worry about it before. The time is now. “…Who shaves the barber?” I don’t have the original Bertrand Russell quote, so the answer — highly relevant to the assumption that Yves is male — that the barber is a woman — is probably a cop-out: the original likely forces the self-referential paradox.

And are we in such a paradox, where our logic is doomed to fail? The arguments here are too fast & loose to be subjected to such rigor. Claims that we’re headed for a decade or more of slow growth may be true, or may not, without any reference to the reasons we give. A society produces what it is willing to. *I* think the US has lost most of its vitality, and the emergerers will be making news as they rise to our level of productivity.

Finally, the notion that Green is a cost, not a benefit: it’s always been both. We have given very short shrift to externalities of our development, but it’s now obvious to many that choking ourselves to death is not “economic progress.” You can think of it as people ALWAYS liked fresh air, water, etc., but never had to worry about it before. The time is now.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11135 Anonymous Sat, 12 Jul 2008 13:22:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11135 I know. I just randomly through out a date becuase deep down, all men have a juvenile side to them!<br/><br/>:-) I know. I just randomly through out a date becuase deep down, all men have a juvenile side to them!

:-)

]]> By: Yves Smith http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11082 Yves Smith Sat, 12 Jul 2008 00:26:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11082 Hate to tell you, but wrong Ivy League issue. Hate to tell you, but wrong Ivy League issue.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11076 Anonymous Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:29:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11076 After looking at that link above, I knew I saw her picture before. It took me a while to find it, but there she is, Miss January 1983!!!<br/><br/>;-) After looking at that link above, I knew I saw her picture before. It took me a while to find it, but there she is, Miss January 1983!!!

;-)

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11071 Anonymous Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:21:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11071 Gents,<br/><br/>"Yves" can also be a woman's name.<br/><br/>See http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/gcprogram.taf?function=bio&EventID=GC08&SPID=3194 Gents,

“Yves” can also be a woman’s name.

See http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/gcprogram.taf?function=bio&EventID=GC08&SPID=3194

]]> By: jm http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11070 jm Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:48:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11070 I believe the critical factor determining the future path of the US economy will be how long the Chinese government can continue the dirty float that continues to give its manufacturers massive subsidies for exports to the US, and brings in the dollars with which the Chinese government buys US securities to keep our interest rates low.<br/><br/>Sans purchases of US securities by foreign central banks, US rates will go through the roof, US consumption will plunge as the savings rate rises, and our retail/distribution-based economy will implode. <br/><br/>Will not the money-creating mechanisms of fractional-reserve banking go into reverse as more and more loans go bad?<br/><br/>It seems to me it is not a question of whether this will happen -- only when.<br/><br/>I suspect that the internal contradictions of the Chinese system are going to cause it to collapse just as the Soviet system did, soon after the Olympics end. I believe the critical factor determining the future path of the US economy will be how long the Chinese government can continue the dirty float that continues to give its manufacturers massive subsidies for exports to the US, and brings in the dollars with which the Chinese government buys US securities to keep our interest rates low.

Sans purchases of US securities by foreign central banks, US rates will go through the roof, US consumption will plunge as the savings rate rises, and our retail/distribution-based economy will implode.

Will not the money-creating mechanisms of fractional-reserve banking go into reverse as more and more loans go bad?

It seems to me it is not a question of whether this will happen — only when.

I suspect that the internal contradictions of the Chinese system are going to cause it to collapse just as the Soviet system did, soon after the Olympics end.

]]> By: jm http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11069 jm Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:30:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11069 Yves, <br/><br/>I think you have the best economics/financial blog on the net.<br/>I treasure your insights and informed commentary. Yves,

I think you have the best economics/financial blog on the net.
I treasure your insights and informed commentary.

]]> By: jm http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11067 jm Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:28:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11067 russell1200, <br/><br/>The barber shaves all the men in town.<br/>No man shaves himself.<br/>Who shaves the barber? russell1200,

The barber shaves all the men in town.
No man shaves himself.
Who shaves the barber?

]]> By: russell1200 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11063 russell1200 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:09:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11063 How did you wind up with a playboy issue roomie? Did they have coed dorm rooms? How did you wind up with a playboy issue roomie? Did they have coed dorm rooms?

]]> By: b http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-norm.html#comment-11057 b Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:00:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/07/will-japans-lost-decade-become-the-norm/#comment-11057 It's always seemed to me that one obvious factor in Japan's predicament is demographics. Their population is falling, ipso facto demand for housing and many other assets will also fall. This is already occurring in Europe, and even China's population will peak in the next 50 years. Sometime this century, world population will begin declining. <br/><br/>If population falls 1%, and real growth is flat, people are 1% richer on average. How is that worse than population growth of 1% and real growth of 2% like we have averaged in the US? <br/><br/>All the navel convoluted analysis about political systems seems fairly silly.<br/><br/>The big problem I foresee is that our whole economic system can't deal with positive deflation. That's where the Fed made it's mistake in the early 2000s. That deflation was good. If they had raised rates, house prices would have flattened and cars and TVs would have cost less. It’s always seemed to me that one obvious factor in Japan’s predicament is demographics. Their population is falling, ipso facto demand for housing and many other assets will also fall. This is already occurring in Europe, and even China’s population will peak in the next 50 years. Sometime this century, world population will begin declining.

If population falls 1%, and real growth is flat, people are 1% richer on average. How is that worse than population growth of 1% and real growth of 2% like we have averaged in the US?

All the navel convoluted analysis about political systems seems fairly silly.

The big problem I foresee is that our whole economic system can’t deal with positive deflation. That’s where the Fed made it’s mistake in the early 2000s. That deflation was good. If they had raised rates, house prices would have flattened and cars and TVs would have cost less.

]]>