what interfuel substitutions are you allowing for over what periods. other variables might be relations between primary, wholesale, retail, then as well, efficiency changes in cap goods — sure elasticities are not linear but neither are they particularly predictive and if we’re talking prices of oils, we’re talking prices which are only indirectly related to physical supply/demand.

anon 4:42,

latest monthly at tod indicates that production has been, if not ’surging’, definitely rising. saudi production rates are not exactly known but if i had been in their shoes i’d not have increased earlier and would be cutting by now. looks like the same old lags between production/consumption which have given us gluts before.

Where did the inaccurate data come from that informed its earlier numbers?

Who fudged what?

And, why?

To those who predict a dampening effect on this reduction trend due to structural factors:
there are yet additional iterations of each of the financial, credit, economic factors in the economy to play out.
Each of these iterations will produce another downward plateau in demand.
Remember the US’ energy input to economic output largesse.
We have a long ways to go.
Oil Price. It’s a coming down, it’s a coming down, it’s a coming down, it’s a coming DOWN.
Seventy Bucks and holding.

If it takes a global meltdown to bring down oil prices, we better hope the world stays weak until alternative energies comes online in commercially available quantities.

The Saudi’s have a few projects coming online in the next couple years. This should add a sustainable 1 million barrels per day. The can go higher, but it would lead to faster field depletion rates.

Also, OPEC may decide to cut production at existing fields to support prices. So whatever Americans have sacrificed by consuming less may be negated by OPEC action.

So the world must get much weaker, consume less, and stay in a depression-like condition to delay the onset of “peak oil”

Sad that we are getting excited about why oil prices are falling. Not due to surging supplies, rather falling demand.

Not good for global growth, global stock markets, and global employment.

No surprise here that U.S treasuries get a constant bid.

Everyone I know has slowed spending. Even the ones with stable jobs and a good income. “Frugal is the new Cool” is real, and it’s here to stay. Dave Ramsey is becoming popular with people outside the churches, who simply want to be free of the debt yoke we’ve all been hauling around for two decades.

It’ll be a couple of years of consumer retrenching, for sure. It’s going to be harder going for foreign countries who have depended upon selling tons of crap here to drive their economies because people are, and will continue, to buy less of that crap.

I would expect much, much better from you. Guy Caruso is a joke, some sort of a bureaucratic clown. He has no idea what he is talking about and expects higher private investment to save the day(really, that his game plan).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y13dNHFqeLM

Appears that the U.S. has been exporting increasing quantities of crude and distillates, which may effect commercial inventories?:

Chart-
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist_chart/MTTEXUS1m.jpg