This is speculation, sure. But what is most important is that during the Summer of 45 US policy makers came to understand how completely Russia was taking control of occupied areas in E Europe: Arguably this was the main policy preoccupation of Truman’s first six months, even ahead of the still continuing US-Japanese war. The Japanese army in Manchuria, supposedly one of the best units in their military, put up negligible resistance to the Russians, and the idea that the military in Japan would cut a deal with and put themselves ‘in an armistice under Russian protection,’ the terms of which could be discussed later, seems to me very real. They were not give time even to think about it, just as the dates you show. Day 1, Russian invasion; Day 2, mushroom cloud in Nippon. The short time frame, and the extreme sensitivity of this issue means that very little of any top level discussions in the US Admin would have been committed to paper, or discussed afterward. I mean, who wants their name on a meeting minute authorizing the exemplary execution of 110K civilians for raisons d’etat, especially when it is clear that top level US officials had already received surrender overtures from the Japanese and hence knew of a certainty that the bombing was unnecessary?

We’ll never really know. But I wonder whether the American public is ready for the day when others treat us the same way? That will be after my time, I think, but that day will come. Most Americans are blind to the harm we do and our spendthrift way with the lives of others, but the rest of the world keeps a ledger in these things.

What about something fun????

For many years I have been tormented by the certainty that the most extraor-
dinary discoveries await us in the sphere of Time. We know less about time than
about anything else.
—Tarkovsky.2

http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/archive/00002549/01/representation2.pdf

Purchases rose 0.2 percent, one-third the pace in June, the Commerce Department said today in Washington, while prices surged the most in 17 years. The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment was at 63 this month, from 61.2 in July.

Yields on agency mortgage securities fell to the lowest in a month relative to U.S. Treasuries after buyers took advantage of some of the widest spreads since 1986.

The difference between yields on Fannie Mae's current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate bonds and 10-year government notes narrowed 10 basis points this week to 197 basis points, data compiled by Bloomberg show, reducing the cost of new home loans. The spread fell from 215 basis points on Aug. 18, the widest since March, when the gap set a 22-year high of 238 basis point.

“Mortgages had gotten extremely cheap, so even if Fannie and Freddie are capital-constrained and might not be as aggressive, other leveraged accounts can put on the same trade that they might have,'' said Gary Cloud, who oversees $500 million in fixed-income securities at Financial Counselors Inc. in Kansas City, Missouri.

“If I'm Paulson, I'm looking at spreads,'' Gary Gordon, an analyst at New York-based Portales Partners LLC, said in an interview. The Treasury may decide to buy the securities itself or take other actions to lower mortgage rates rather than make capital injections to Fannie and Freddie if officials believed spreads were too wide, he said.

Bank of China Ltd., the nation's third-largest bank, said in earnings report that it pared its holdings of mortgage bonds guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie by 22 percent to $5.17 billion between June 30 and Aug. 25.

Very helpful, thanks!

Also trying to scare Stalin then the Soviet Union seems a bit over the top. One has to recall that FDR had tried to coax America into another world war without sucess and he was a very popular President. Truman was not FDR’s choice for VP he was pushed on FDR and maybe the bomb drop is a good indication of the forces behind the change in political mood that was considered necessary to move the country into a constant war footing. Those forces are still in charge today no matter what political party wins in November.

The drivers behind today’s rating action are the current rating of WMB and the risk posed to the continuity of payments on the covered bonds in the event of a default by WMB. In Fitch’s analysis this combination limits the rating to ‘AA’. Furthermore the new rating is supported by the committed OC between the cover pool and the covered bonds.
Recently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a policy statement outlining criteria for U.S. covered bonds. The criteria were designed to ensure that the highest quality mortgage loans would be used in new covered bond transactions. Covered bonds meeting the criteria would benefit from a reduced automatic stay period of 10 days in the event an issuer was to become insolvent. Because WMB’s mortgage loans do not meet the new criteria, a 90 day stay period is required in the event WMB becomes insolvent which could delay access to the pledged collateral if a sale were required to repay the covered bonds before the end of their maturity extension period.

The idea is that this deal was done prior to the new regulations. The quality of the collateral is not adequate to allow the covered bondholders to gain access to the collateral in 10 days after in insolvency, but instead, 90 days. During that period of time, the value of the collateral could decline below the par value of the bonds, leaving the bondholders with a loss, which they would be senior unsecured creditors for the difference.

That loss is likely to be small-ish if it occurs, thus a AA rating, rather than the BBB (neg outlook) senior unsecured rating for WaMu holding company debt.

While I’m at it, I have a post coming on the SEC and International Accounting Standards. I oppose their adoption.