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	<title>Comments on: AIG: &quot;Rush Is On to Prevent Big Insurer From Failing&quot; (Even More Scary Updates)</title>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15297</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15297</guid>
		<description>It has been nine months since the rating agencies first began to make it clear how foolish it is to build a business whose existence is dependent on maintaining a given credit rating.  Any firm like AIG that did not spend those 9 months de-levering as quickly as possible and doing everything possible to insulate itself from rating-driven collateral calls is run by incompetent managers.  Willumstad certainly fits that description. Overrated at Citi, fiddled while Rome burned at AIG. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It is Paulson&#039;s fault that it came to this for AIG, LEH, MER, and others, but the management teams had an opportunity to protect itself from his recklessness and the rating agencies&#039; foolishness. They chose not to take it.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Meanwhile, the maligned monolines, having learned their lesson the hard way much earlier this year, spent the last 3 or 4 months in a frenzy of activity to wind down the one part of their business (asset management) that still was exposed to rating agency irrationality.  Unthinkable as it was several months ago, the monolines seem pretty smart compared to the dopes at LEH, AIG, MER, WM, and lord knows who&#039;s next.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It has been nine months since the rating agencies first began to make it clear how foolish it is to build a business whose existence is dependent on maintaining a given credit rating.  Any firm like AIG that did not spend those 9 months de-levering as quickly as possible and doing everything possible to insulate itself from rating-driven collateral calls is run by incompetent managers.  Willumstad certainly fits that description. Overrated at Citi, fiddled while Rome burned at AIG. </p>
<p>It is Paulson&#8217;s fault that it came to this for AIG, LEH, MER, and others, but the management teams had an opportunity to protect itself from his recklessness and the rating agencies&#8217; foolishness. They chose not to take it.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the maligned monolines, having learned their lesson the hard way much earlier this year, spent the last 3 or 4 months in a frenzy of activity to wind down the one part of their business (asset management) that still was exposed to rating agency irrationality.  Unthinkable as it was several months ago, the monolines seem pretty smart compared to the dopes at LEH, AIG, MER, WM, and lord knows who&#8217;s next.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt Dubuque</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15295</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt Dubuque</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:24:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15295</guid>
		<description>Yves, to put the radicalization of the ratings agencies into perspective (you draw a wise contrast between their stance on AIG and their inexcusable snail&#039;s pace on the monolines), a bit of background history helps.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;We are going to see much more assertive ratings agencies now.  I&#039;m reminded of how accounting firms always used to sign off on corporate statements that they never should have.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Enron changed all that, together with the public dismemberment of Arthur Andersen orchestrated by the fearless Paul Volcker.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Nobody thought  Andersen could fail.  There was blood everywhere after the public execution of Andersen by Volcker and EVERY accountant who went to a good school knows more than a few of their friends who lost their jobs there.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;After the lynching of Arthur Andersen, the large accounting firms changed their tune.  Look what their AUDITED statements did to corporate earnings last January.   (Remember that only ANNUAL reports are audited.)  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Wait to see what happens come January 2009 when they AUDIT all this trash posing as quarterly earnings reports.  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Oooo weee.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Similarly, the ratings agencies, all of them were corrupt and complacent.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now, armies of brilliant commando plaintiff&#039;s lawyers have descended on Federal courtroooms throughout the country armed with hundreds of reams of smoking guns about the liability of the ratings firms in all of this.  Their stock price reflects this.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The ratings agencies have now been ordered by their in-house corporate counsel that competence and diligence are more important than chance encounters with gorgeous women facilitated by unnamed third parties in deciding whether and when to downgrade.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Matt Dubuque</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves, to put the radicalization of the ratings agencies into perspective (you draw a wise contrast between their stance on AIG and their inexcusable snail&#8217;s pace on the monolines), a bit of background history helps.</p>
<p>We are going to see much more assertive ratings agencies now.  I&#8217;m reminded of how accounting firms always used to sign off on corporate statements that they never should have.</p>
<p>Enron changed all that, together with the public dismemberment of Arthur Andersen orchestrated by the fearless Paul Volcker.</p>
<p>Nobody thought  Andersen could fail.  There was blood everywhere after the public execution of Andersen by Volcker and EVERY accountant who went to a good school knows more than a few of their friends who lost their jobs there.</p>
<p>After the lynching of Arthur Andersen, the large accounting firms changed their tune.  Look what their AUDITED statements did to corporate earnings last January.   (Remember that only ANNUAL reports are audited.)  </p>
<p>Wait to see what happens come January 2009 when they AUDIT all this trash posing as quarterly earnings reports.  </p>
<p>Oooo weee.</p>
<p>Similarly, the ratings agencies, all of them were corrupt and complacent.</p>
<p>Now, armies of brilliant commando plaintiff&#8217;s lawyers have descended on Federal courtroooms throughout the country armed with hundreds of reams of smoking guns about the liability of the ratings firms in all of this.  Their stock price reflects this.</p>
<p>The ratings agencies have now been ordered by their in-house corporate counsel that competence and diligence are more important than chance encounters with gorgeous women facilitated by unnamed third parties in deciding whether and when to downgrade.</p>
<p>Matt Dubuque</p>
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		<title>By: ScottH</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15282</link>
		<dc:creator>ScottH</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15282</guid>
		<description>LEH filed. After the deadline for the netting trades session, it appears, so those are dead. Apparently that was a bit of disaster so missing the deadline is kind of a moot point.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LEH filed. After the deadline for the netting trades session, it appears, so those are dead. Apparently that was a bit of disaster so missing the deadline is kind of a moot point.</p>
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		<title>By: Merry-will-go-round</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15276</link>
		<dc:creator>Merry-will-go-round</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Sep 2008 04:05:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15276</guid>
		<description>Well, I&#039;m so glad that these catastrophes did not occur on September 11.  Wonder if Wall Street will erect a memorial to the fallen free market?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, I&#8217;m so glad that these catastrophes did not occur on September 11.  Wonder if Wall Street will erect a memorial to the fallen free market?</p>
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		<title>By: ruetheday</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15198</link>
		<dc:creator>ruetheday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:41:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15198</guid>
		<description>For all the economist types out there, I recommend boning up on your Irving Fisher and Hyman Minsky.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For all the economist types out there, I recommend boning up on your Irving Fisher and Hyman Minsky.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15195</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15195</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m a little surprised that stock futures are only down 3%.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Seems rather cavalier -- &quot;What, we worry?&quot;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Maybe they know something we don&#039;t.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m a little surprised that stock futures are only down 3%.</p>
<p>Seems rather cavalier &#8212; &#8220;What, we worry?&#8221;</p>
<p>Maybe they know something we don&#8217;t.</p>
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		<title>By: Viv</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15194</link>
		<dc:creator>Viv</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15194</guid>
		<description>NY times is reporting Lehman will undergo liquidation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NY times is reporting Lehman will undergo liquidation.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15191</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:07:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15191</guid>
		<description>That&#039;s the problem in a sell off, you have to open your books for perusal and after one look people runaway like it&#039;s Halloween haunted house.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s the problem in a sell off, you have to open your books for perusal and after one look people runaway like it&#8217;s Halloween haunted house.</p>
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		<title>By: mxq</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15190</link>
		<dc:creator>mxq</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-rush-is-on-to-prevent-big-insurer-from-failing-even-more-scary-updates/#comment-15190</guid>
		<description>&quot;Mr. Ashooh said, “what kind of risk is in the portfolio, what kind of collateral there is, and how the marks were calculated. We think we use a very thorough and conservative approach that includes third-party input and input from the rating services.....”&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;First off, to Mr. Ashooh...i say &quot;Gazoontite.&quot;  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Second off, who is this &quot;third-party&quot; that keeps signing off on these obviously ridiculous marks, simultaneously facillitating the total annhilation of our modern financial system while maintaining a smile?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Here&#039;s an idea:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Is there a market for this security?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If the answer is &quot;no,&quot; you mark it zero, and move on to the next frame.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;If the answer is &quot;yes,&quot; you sell a piece of it and mark the lot based upon the bid you get.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Now THAT would be competent risk management...in indeed there is such a thing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Mr. Ashooh said, “what kind of risk is in the portfolio, what kind of collateral there is, and how the marks were calculated. We think we use a very thorough and conservative approach that includes third-party input and input from the rating services&#8230;..”</p>
<p>First off, to Mr. Ashooh&#8230;i say &#8220;Gazoontite.&#8221;  </p>
<p>Second off, who is this &#8220;third-party&#8221; that keeps signing off on these obviously ridiculous marks, simultaneously facillitating the total annhilation of our modern financial system while maintaining a smile?</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s an idea:</p>
<p>Is there a market for this security?</p>
<p>If the answer is &#8220;no,&#8221; you mark it zero, and move on to the next frame.</p>
<p>If the answer is &#8220;yes,&#8221; you sell a piece of it and mark the lot based upon the bid you get.</p>
<p>Now THAT would be competent risk management&#8230;in indeed there is such a thing.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/aig-plans-major-restructuring.html#comment-15185</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>the potentially scary thing about tonight/Tomorrow is that Korea and Japan are closed...we may see a classic sell-what-you-can reaction across Asia if investors with Japanese/Korean positions want to liquidate/hedge their positions.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&#039;s going to be a crazy week.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>the potentially scary thing about tonight/Tomorrow is that Korea and Japan are closed&#8230;we may see a classic sell-what-you-can reaction across Asia if investors with Japanese/Korean positions want to liquidate/hedge their positions.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s going to be a crazy week.</p>
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