Comments on: Is Another Emerging Markets Crisis in Motion? http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:06:33 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Unstructure http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22955 Unstructure Fri, 24 Oct 2008 17:25:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22955 We would like to know your thoughts on how global businesses can create opportunities in emerging markets.<br/><br/>We would be delighted to have you share your thoughts at unstructure.org.<br/><br/>Would you consider joining the discussion ? <br/><br/>If your answer is in the affirmative, you can simply click on this link to see the current thoughts on the topic. <br/><br/>http://www.unstructure.org/how-should-global-businesses-respond-to-the-unique-opportunities-that-open-up-with-the-emerging-markets-taking-center-stage/<br/><br/>Thanks We would like to know your thoughts on how global businesses can create opportunities in emerging markets.

We would be delighted to have you share your thoughts at unstructure.org.

Would you consider joining the discussion ?

If your answer is in the affirmative, you can simply click on this link to see the current thoughts on the topic.

http://www.unstructure.org/how-should-global-businesses-respond-to-the-unique-opportunities-that-open-up-with-the-emerging-markets-taking-center-stage/

Thanks

]]> By: rahuldeodhar http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22728 rahuldeodhar Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:04:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22728 Great Post and great comments particularly Richard! Great Post and great comments particularly Richard!

]]> By: Richard Kline http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22716 Richard Kline Thu, 23 Oct 2008 08:10:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22716 So John Bougearel, feel free to quote away. I consider anything I place here public domain. But please, fix my typos. (I do worse neurologically some days than others.) I'm willing to look like a fool on content where I'm wrong, but I'd prefer to look less of a fool on execution than I often achieve under my own power. So John Bougearel, feel free to quote away. I consider anything I place here public domain. But please, fix my typos. (I do worse neurologically some days than others.) I’m willing to look like a fool on content where I’m wrong, but I’d prefer to look less of a fool on execution than I often achieve under my own power.

]]> By: James Kwak http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22692 James Kwak Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:27:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22692 It's a good thing that the emerging markets crisis is getting some attention - it's been very easy for people in the G7 to ignore it because of our own problems. For more on the topic, my co-authors wrote an op-ed in Forbes.com a week and a half ago (http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/12/gazprom-europe-banks-oped-cx_pb_sj_1012boonejohnson.html). We also do periodic updates on our blog (http://baselinescenario.com/2008/10/18/emerging-market-developments/), although I've been remiss about doing one in the last few days. It’s a good thing that the emerging markets crisis is getting some attention – it’s been very easy for people in the G7 to ignore it because of our own problems. For more on the topic, my co-authors wrote an op-ed in Forbes.com a week and a half ago (http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/12/gazprom-europe-banks-oped-cx_pb_sj_1012boonejohnson.html). We also do periodic updates on our blog (http://baselinescenario.com/2008/10/18/emerging-market-developments/), although I’ve been remiss about doing one in the last few days.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22665 Anonymous Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:03:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22665 Or they could just stop buying the trillions of new debt the US Treasury plans to issue for all the bailouts..... Or they could just stop buying the trillions of new debt the US Treasury plans to issue for all the bailouts…..

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22662 Anonymous Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:40:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22662 Does this mean these holders of US debt start selling treasuries to raise dollars?<br/><br/>Now that would be fun ;) Does this mean these holders of US debt start selling treasuries to raise dollars?

Now that would be fun ;)

]]> By: john bougearel http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22661 john bougearel Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:38:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22661 the only way to capture US dollars for alot of these EM's are through crude oil exports. Countries reliant on Crude oil exports and are starving for dollars will be hurtin for certain.<br/><br/>(sorry to have to rewrite that, must have been distracted by the credit rating agency testimonies) the only way to capture US dollars for alot of these EM’s are through crude oil exports. Countries reliant on Crude oil exports and are starving for dollars will be hurtin for certain.

(sorry to have to rewrite that, must have been distracted by the credit rating agency testimonies)

]]> By: john bougearel http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22659 john bougearel Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:33:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22659 Richard, <br/><br/>That is beautiful! Don't mind if a quote you do ya? <br/><br/>jb Richard,

That is beautiful! Don’t mind if a quote you do ya?

jb

]]> By: john bougearel http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22657 john bougearel Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:30:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22657 Yves,<br/><br/>Funny you should parallel EM's of today with that of problems with the ASian and Russian EM's in 1997-1998. <br/><br/>Back then,the final bear market decline in crude oil was 62% to zero when it bottomed near $10. <br/><br/>I happen to do a bit of technical analysis (a chronic hobby of mine) and noted that a 62% correction from $147 targets a $5-%56. That would take Crude oil back to its Hurricane Ivan high in Oct 2004. <br/><br/>$55 appears to be the next big support area above the 2007 low at $50. <br/><br/>That implies about another 20% downside risks near term which seems quite doable given the 12% crude oil demand destruction you noted in your recent oil post. The downside risks are further strengthened by the fact that that demand destruction continues to accelerate i.e. the gap between peak demand and today's diminishing demand. <br/><br/>the only way to capture US dollars for alot of EM's in Russia, Brazil, and other latin american countries are hurting for certain. <br/><br/>Risks of defaults in these countries are escalating as we speak and write Yves,

Funny you should parallel EM’s of today with that of problems with the ASian and Russian EM’s in 1997-1998.

Back then,the final bear market decline in crude oil was 62% to zero when it bottomed near $10.

I happen to do a bit of technical analysis (a chronic hobby of mine) and noted that a 62% correction from $147 targets a $5-%56. That would take Crude oil back to its Hurricane Ivan high in Oct 2004.

$55 appears to be the next big support area above the 2007 low at $50.

That implies about another 20% downside risks near term which seems quite doable given the 12% crude oil demand destruction you noted in your recent oil post. The downside risks are further strengthened by the fact that that demand destruction continues to accelerate i.e. the gap between peak demand and today’s diminishing demand.

the only way to capture US dollars for alot of EM’s in Russia, Brazil, and other latin american countries are hurting for certain.

Risks of defaults in these countries are escalating as we speak and write

]]> By: mxq http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in.html#comment-22655 mxq Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:09:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/is-another-emerging-markets-crisis-in-motion/#comment-22655 I wonder if the dollar shortage is why the fed is offering its bazillion dollar <a HREF="http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2008/09/thursdays-post.html" REL="nofollow">swap facility</a>.<br/><br/>Which actually reminds me of a joke...<br/><br/>"Donald Rumsfeld is giving the president his daily briefing. He concludes by saying: "Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed."<br/><br/>"OH NO!" the President exclaims. "That's terrible!"<br/><br/>His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.<br/><br/>Finally, the President looks up and asks, "How many is a brazillion?"<br/><br/>boo! hiss! I wonder if the dollar shortage is why the fed is offering its bazillion dollar swap facility.

Which actually reminds me of a joke…

“Donald Rumsfeld is giving the president his daily briefing. He concludes by saying: “Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed.”

“OH NO!” the President exclaims. “That’s terrible!”

His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.

Finally, the President looks up and asks, “How many is a brazillion?”

boo! hiss!

]]>