Comments on: Mitsubishi Agrees Revised Terms on $9 Billion Investment in Morgan Stanley http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:07:28 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21414 Anonymous Tue, 14 Oct 2008 03:38:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21414 4:21, we didn't quite catch your answer to the question of what your investment strategy is. Since your investment success has been so overwhelming, we are longing for your advice. 4:21, we didn’t quite catch your answer to the question of what your investment strategy is. Since your investment success has been so overwhelming, we are longing for your advice.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21316 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 21:50:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21316 I see where the next four largest percentage gains came during the First Great Depression.<br/><br/>"Fasten your selt belts and make sure your tray tables are in their upright and locked positions..." I see where the next four largest percentage gains came during the First Great Depression.

“Fasten your selt belts and make sure your tray tables are in their upright and locked positions…”

]]> By: Ja http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21312 Ja Mon, 13 Oct 2008 21:22:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21312 Roubini has a clue. When you post very large daily percentage gains, you're officially in a bear market. Or so suggests history and intuition.<br/><br/>It may not be so bad, but better fasten your seat belts, at least this month.<br/><br/>Largest daily percentage gains, DOW<br/>Rank - Date - Close - Net Change - % Change <br/><br/>----------------------------------<br/><br/>1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34<br/>2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87<br/>3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34<br/>4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36<br/>5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08<br/>6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15<br/>7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52<br/>8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47<br/>9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36<br/>10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35<br/>11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19<br/>12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08<br/>13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03<br/>14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70<br/>15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99<br/>16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26<br/>17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12<br/>18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12<br/>19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83<br/>20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69 Roubini has a clue. When you post very large daily percentage gains, you’re officially in a bear market. Or so suggests history and intuition.

It may not be so bad, but better fasten your seat belts, at least this month.

Largest daily percentage gains, DOW
Rank – Date – Close – Net Change – % Change

———————————-

1 1933-03-15 62.10 +8.26 +15.34
2 1931-10-06 99.34 +12.86 +14.87
3 1929-10-30 258.47 +28.40 +12.34
4 1932-09-21 75.16 +7.67 +11.36
5 2008-10-13 9,387.61 +936.42 +11.08
6 1987-10-21 2,027.85 +186.84 +10.15
7 1932-08-03 58.22 +5.06 +9.52
8 1932-02-11 78.60 +6.80 +9.47
9 1929-11-14 217.28 +18.59 +9.36
10 1931-12-18 80.69 +6.90 +9.35
11 1932-02-13 85.82 +7.22 +9.19
12 1932-05-06 59.01 +4.91 +9.08
13 1933-04-19 68.31 +5.66 +9.03
14 1931-10-08 105.79 +8.47 +8.70
15 1932-06-10 48.94 +3.62 +7.99
16 1939-09-05 148.12 +10.03 +7.26
17 1931-06-03 130.37 +8.67 +7.12
18 1932-01-06 76.31 +5.07 +7.12
19 1932-10-14 63.84 +4.08 +6.83
20 1907-03-15 81.33 +5.10 +6.69

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21307 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:39:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21307 This is 4:21, So tell me who has been more accurate in calling this? You'd rather rely on the cheerleaders who have been wrong the last two years?<br/><br/>I've been up considerably more than cash the last two years, and that with a low risk strategy and little trading. I'll put my record against any one, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis. This is 4:21, So tell me who has been more accurate in calling this? You’d rather rely on the cheerleaders who have been wrong the last two years?

I’ve been up considerably more than cash the last two years, and that with a low risk strategy and little trading. I’ll put my record against any one, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21306 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:32:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21306 4:21, I love "First, Roubini is not convinced this crisis is over." Is that the state of things these days? It's not over until Roubini says its over? <br/><br/>What is your investment advice, pray tell? Not stocks, obviously. Bonds? Gold? Canned soup and ammunition?<br/><br/>All of the governments of the major countries of the world are bringing everything they have to bear to solve what basically boils down to a crisis of confidence. You want to bet that a multi-trillion dollar global effort to keep the banking system functioning won't succeed? The odds are just a bit against you and your idol Nouriel. 4:21, I love “First, Roubini is not convinced this crisis is over.” Is that the state of things these days? It’s not over until Roubini says its over?

What is your investment advice, pray tell? Not stocks, obviously. Bonds? Gold? Canned soup and ammunition?

All of the governments of the major countries of the world are bringing everything they have to bear to solve what basically boils down to a crisis of confidence. You want to bet that a multi-trillion dollar global effort to keep the banking system functioning won’t succeed? The odds are just a bit against you and your idol Nouriel.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21304 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:21:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21304 A one day rally does not an economic recovery make. Paul Kedrosly had a chart showing that the long term trend line of the Dow since 1982 would put the proper value at .......7000.<br/><br/>Mr. Stock Market hopes banking crisis over, we get back to consumer borrow and spend party. First, Roubini is not convinced the crisis is over. Second, even if it is, banks are cutting back on consumer lending of every kind, both via pricing and via slashing credit lines. We will still have deleveraging, and still have a bad recession, even if no depression.<br/><br/>The Dow had multiple double digit rallies during its 90% decline. The Japanese stock market never recovered to its bubble year peak.<br/><br/>And I further submit that if we do, it might not be for good reasons. Zimbabwe with its hyperinflation has the best nominal stock market performance on offer...<br/><br/>Way too early to declare victory. A one day rally does not an economic recovery make. Paul Kedrosly had a chart showing that the long term trend line of the Dow since 1982 would put the proper value at …….7000.

Mr. Stock Market hopes banking crisis over, we get back to consumer borrow and spend party. First, Roubini is not convinced the crisis is over. Second, even if it is, banks are cutting back on consumer lending of every kind, both via pricing and via slashing credit lines. We will still have deleveraging, and still have a bad recession, even if no depression.

The Dow had multiple double digit rallies during its 90% decline. The Japanese stock market never recovered to its bubble year peak.

And I further submit that if we do, it might not be for good reasons. Zimbabwe with its hyperinflation has the best nominal stock market performance on offer…

Way too early to declare victory.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21303 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:06:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21303 That's it. Game over bears. Yves will have to close out this blog!<br/><br/>We're on a gravy train with biscuit wheels! That’s it. Game over bears. Yves will have to close out this blog!

We’re on a gravy train with biscuit wheels!

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21282 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 16:15:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21282 The British banking meltdown is threatening the planned $35-billion takeover of BCE Inc. A crisis yesterday at Royal Bank of Scotland, one of four lenders on the buyout, sent shares of Canada's largest company tumbling.<br/><br/>There are widespread fears these troubles will force RBS to renege on its pledge to lend to BCE's buyers, led by the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan. RBS executives declined comment on the BCE buyout, or the possibility of a bailout. The British banking meltdown is threatening the planned $35-billion takeover of BCE Inc. A crisis yesterday at Royal Bank of Scotland, one of four lenders on the buyout, sent shares of Canada’s largest company tumbling.

There are widespread fears these troubles will force RBS to renege on its pledge to lend to BCE’s buyers, led by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. RBS executives declined comment on the BCE buyout, or the possibility of a bailout.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21256 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 14:14:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21256 EH,<br/><br/>The MS business model for fixed income seems kaput -- slicing and dicing mortgages, loans and reselling for an arb profit.<br/><br/>They can go back to an older model of underwriting debt and equity. But that is oh so 1978 EH,

The MS business model for fixed income seems kaput — slicing and dicing mortgages, loans and reselling for an arb profit.

They can go back to an older model of underwriting debt and equity. But that is oh so 1978

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9.html#comment-21251 Anonymous Mon, 13 Oct 2008 13:33:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/mitsubishi-agrees-revised-terms-on-9-billion-investment-in-morgan-stanley/#comment-21251 The put protects MUFG from getting 'Beared' where all equity (including pref) is wipedout in some forced merger and all debt is protected.<br/><br/>That they need to ask for such protection speaks volumes about their outlook for the bailout plan and their confidence in MS The put protects MUFG from getting ‘Beared’ where all equity (including pref) is wipedout in some forced merger and all debt is protected.

That they need to ask for such protection speaks volumes about their outlook for the bailout plan and their confidence in MS

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