Comments on: Quelle Surprise! Experts Now Say Home Prices Far From Bottom http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:47:30 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21897 Anonymous Thu, 16 Oct 2008 13:23:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21897 Could Alt-A mortgages cause another wave of write-downs in the banks? They must be securitized as well. As reported by Bloomberg, S&P has raised the estimated default rate for Alt-A to 40%. Could Alt-A mortgages cause another wave of write-downs in the banks? They must be securitized as well. As reported by Bloomberg, S&P has raised the estimated default rate for Alt-A to 40%.

]]> By: rahuldeodhar http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21888 rahuldeodhar Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:18:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21888 A "Quelle Surprise" post after a long time!<br/><br/>Totally agree - the real estate prices globally had some more way down left to go. This was before the recession was "priced in". <br/><br/>Despite the current stirring of hornet's nest - my bet is "recession" is not adequately "priced in". Bottoms are going to be way lower. This is just starting.<br/><br/>Rahul A “Quelle Surprise” post after a long time!

Totally agree – the real estate prices globally had some more way down left to go. This was before the recession was “priced in”.

Despite the current stirring of hornet’s nest – my bet is “recession” is not adequately “priced in”. Bottoms are going to be way lower. This is just starting.

Rahul

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21868 Anonymous Thu, 16 Oct 2008 07:27:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21868 ".....This most recent S&P action hit $280 billion and comes just two months following another massive sweep of both Alt-A and Jumbo Prime (see Mr Mortgage report links). $280 billion is approximately 15% of the total Alt-A universe. I am aware that $280 billion hardly seems like news any longer, but many banks still hold Alt-A and Jumbo Prime MBS/whole loans on balance sheet due to their previous high ratings.<br/><br/>The raters are finally understanding the ominous impact that negative equity has across all loan types and borrower grades. Negative equity knows no bounds. While factoring in the unprecedented home price deprecation seen in the past 12-months and projecting that out, they are discovering that those who purchased or refinanced with cash-out as early as 2003 are now under water and at an exponentially greater risk of default. In your harder hit areas, prices are at decade lows and those in a negative equity position are the majority....."<br/><br/>http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/ "…..This most recent S&P action hit $280 billion and comes just two months following another massive sweep of both Alt-A and Jumbo Prime (see Mr Mortgage report links). $280 billion is approximately 15% of the total Alt-A universe. I am aware that $280 billion hardly seems like news any longer, but many banks still hold Alt-A and Jumbo Prime MBS/whole loans on balance sheet due to their previous high ratings.

The raters are finally understanding the ominous impact that negative equity has across all loan types and borrower grades. Negative equity knows no bounds. While factoring in the unprecedented home price deprecation seen in the past 12-months and projecting that out, they are discovering that those who purchased or refinanced with cash-out as early as 2003 are now under water and at an exponentially greater risk of default. In your harder hit areas, prices are at decade lows and those in a negative equity position are the majority….."

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21864 Anonymous Thu, 16 Oct 2008 06:48:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21864 I keep remembering what Sir John Templeton said a few years ago in an interview. (I might add, an interview in which he acknowledged the housing bubble way in advance of most.) He said you will know when it's time to buy back in when the most outrageously over-priced realestate (price at height of the bubble) sells for 10% of its original price. That sounded pretty drastic at the time - still does - but it would not surprise me greatly if it turned out Sir John was right. Of course, he could have simply been repeating historical data from the Japanese housing crash in the latter part of last decade. I keep remembering what Sir John Templeton said a few years ago in an interview. (I might add, an interview in which he acknowledged the housing bubble way in advance of most.) He said you will know when it’s time to buy back in when the most outrageously over-priced realestate (price at height of the bubble) sells for 10% of its original price. That sounded pretty drastic at the time – still does – but it would not surprise me greatly if it turned out Sir John was right. Of course, he could have simply been repeating historical data from the Japanese housing crash in the latter part of last decade.

]]> By: gdd9000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21862 gdd9000 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 06:31:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21862 Exactly. The marginal change in home prices, from what was already expected, is that the job losses are about. But what is really funny, is that their adjusted cumulative price decline, after recessionary impacts, is still smaller than what many of us here already expected before the massive credit crunch. Exactly. The marginal change in home prices, from what was already expected, is that the job losses are about. But what is really funny, is that their adjusted cumulative price decline, after recessionary impacts, is still smaller than what many of us here already expected before the massive credit crunch.

]]> By: doc holiday http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21856 doc holiday Thu, 16 Oct 2008 06:04:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21856 Meanwhile, in another housing market...<br/><br/>Wind Knocked out of China's Housing Prices<br/>http://www.eeo.com.cn/ens//Industry/2008/10/10/115887.html<br/><br/>A wave of housing price cuts appeared to have swept across major cities in China after the Olympics, which earlier this year was still a property hotspot.<br/><br/>Property developers in Shenzhen, southern Guangdong province, were among the first to slash prices to boost the sluggish local real estate market.<br/><br/>Between September 29 and Oct 4, trading volume for housing units dropped 72% compared with the same period last year, according to data posted on the the Beijing municipal real estate management website. During that week, 412 units were sold, or an average of 69 units per day. Meanwhile, in another housing market…

Wind Knocked out of China’s Housing Prices
http://www.eeo.com.cn/ens//Industry/2008/10/10/115887.html

A wave of housing price cuts appeared to have swept across major cities in China after the Olympics, which earlier this year was still a property hotspot.

Property developers in Shenzhen, southern Guangdong province, were among the first to slash prices to boost the sluggish local real estate market.

Between September 29 and Oct 4, trading volume for housing units dropped 72% compared with the same period last year, according to data posted on the the Beijing municipal real estate management website. During that week, 412 units were sold, or an average of 69 units per day.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html#comment-21855 Anonymous Thu, 16 Oct 2008 05:58:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home-prices-far-from-bottom/#comment-21855 According to the zillow mortgage page, average 30 mortgage rates have gone up .75% in one week...<br/><br/>Housing has been plunging even with great interest rates.<br/><br/>If the rates start to head higher due to "unlimited funds" of the western worlds CBs to bail out their banks and a resistance of the eastern would to buy sovereign debt used for those purposes, housing will add momentum to it's rate of descent. <br/><br/>Here in San Diego the poster child for the housing boom home prices are already off an average of 35% and dropping at a steady rate of 2%/month.<br/><br/>The only precedent I'm aware of for a housing bubble popping based on excessive credit is Honolulu, HI after japan tanked in 1990. Prices there dropped just over fifty percent and did it in a staggeringly short period of time. According to the zillow mortgage page, average 30 mortgage rates have gone up .75% in one week…

Housing has been plunging even with great interest rates.

If the rates start to head higher due to “unlimited funds” of the western worlds CBs to bail out their banks and a resistance of the eastern would to buy sovereign debt used for those purposes, housing will add momentum to it’s rate of descent.

Here in San Diego the poster child for the housing boom home prices are already off an average of 35% and dropping at a steady rate of 2%/month.

The only precedent I’m aware of for a housing bubble popping based on excessive credit is Honolulu, HI after japan tanked in 1990. Prices there dropped just over fifty percent and did it in a staggeringly short period of time.

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