Comments on: China Likely to Stop Diesel Imports for Second Month http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 13:08:50 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Joe C http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for.html#comment-24684 Joe C Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:33:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for-second-month/#comment-24684 Dont worry, OPEC's unity will crack shortly, the way this economy is slowing, oil will be a lot lower soon. Unfortunately, that's really not good for anyone. <br/><br/>Oil is a yoke now on global growth, as soon as the economy picks up, oil will rise right along with it. I look at a $80 a barrel as the choke point for how we currently do business.<br/><br/>We're going to have to change, here's a piece of mine published by the Asia Times on Wednesday, that talks about the financial mess, our economy, and energy,<br/><br/><a HREF="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JK06Dj03.html" REL="nofollow">Economics Can Open to New Realities</a><br/><br/>peace<br/>joe Dont worry, OPEC’s unity will crack shortly, the way this economy is slowing, oil will be a lot lower soon. Unfortunately, that’s really not good for anyone.

Oil is a yoke now on global growth, as soon as the economy picks up, oil will rise right along with it. I look at a $80 a barrel as the choke point for how we currently do business.

We’re going to have to change, here’s a piece of mine published by the Asia Times on Wednesday, that talks about the financial mess, our economy, and energy,

Economics Can Open to New Realities

peace
joe

]]> By: Charles http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for.html#comment-24668 Charles Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:32:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for-second-month/#comment-24668 And that is why this reader has come to this forum rather than waste time on The Economist, for their blind insistence that secular changes in demand was the primary reason for the spike up to $145! And that is why this reader has come to this forum rather than waste time on The Economist, for their blind insistence that secular changes in demand was the primary reason for the spike up to $145!

]]> By: fresno dan http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for.html#comment-24650 fresno dan Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:50:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for-second-month/#comment-24650 "Skeptics like your contrarian blogger "<br/>thats why your ornery readers come here... somebody needs to face the onrushing lemmings and yell "Stop and think!!!" “Skeptics like your contrarian blogger “
thats why your ornery readers come here… somebody needs to face the onrushing lemmings and yell “Stop and think!!!”

]]> By: doc holiday http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for.html#comment-24641 doc holiday Fri, 07 Nov 2008 09:24:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/china-likely-to-stop-diesel-imports-for-second-month/#comment-24641 I read a few stories and saw references to diesel prices that have risen by 240 percent since 2004.<br/><br/>It almost seems like we have some delayed global impacts of inflation that are not priced in at this point -- or more realistically, those earlier inflation values from 4 years ago were distorted by The Bush folks, et al in order to under-estimate global inflation and to over-state GDP. Thus, re-pricing oil to reflect real valuation would be like re-stating GPD and de-valuing and depreciating everything in sight -- then again, I probably need to sleep.<br/><br/> I assume China is a bagholder in this game and they also over-estimate growth and consumption and they have too much inventory and slowing demand, but, if this is a game of distortion from 4 years ago, what is the advantage to not distort things now? If GDP was overstated, why not continue along with that game and simple keep cheating?<br/><br/>Remember the stories going around on the bogus GDP deflator: Nominal vs. Real GDP: Why the GDP Deflator Overstates GDP<br/>http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/09/nominal-vs-real-gdp-why-gdp-deflator.html I read a few stories and saw references to diesel prices that have risen by 240 percent since 2004.

It almost seems like we have some delayed global impacts of inflation that are not priced in at this point — or more realistically, those earlier inflation values from 4 years ago were distorted by The Bush folks, et al in order to under-estimate global inflation and to over-state GDP. Thus, re-pricing oil to reflect real valuation would be like re-stating GPD and de-valuing and depreciating everything in sight — then again, I probably need to sleep.

I assume China is a bagholder in this game and they also over-estimate growth and consumption and they have too much inventory and slowing demand, but, if this is a game of distortion from 4 years ago, what is the advantage to not distort things now? If GDP was overstated, why not continue along with that game and simple keep cheating?

Remember the stories going around on the bogus GDP deflator: Nominal vs. Real GDP: Why the GDP Deflator Overstates GDP
http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2008/09/nominal-vs-real-gdp-why-gdp-deflator.html

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