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	<title>Comments on: Cotton Exports Fall Sharply</title>
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		<title>By: macndub</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26077</link>
		<dc:creator>macndub</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply/#comment-26077</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;The end result will most likely be some cotton producers will go out of business, which when the supply chain has consumed all its spare inventories may mean a production shortage&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I expect this in many commodities.  The harder to store, the worse it should get.  Oil is at a $10 contango for the year, which is an astounding 18% riskless return, provided you have the credit and storage capacity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>The end result will most likely be some cotton producers will go out of business, which when the supply chain has consumed all its spare inventories may mean a production shortage</i></p>
<p>I expect this in many commodities.  The harder to store, the worse it should get.  Oil is at a $10 contango for the year, which is an astounding 18% riskless return, provided you have the credit and storage capacity.</p>
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		<title>By: doc holiday</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26072</link>
		<dc:creator>doc holiday</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 18:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Retail news FYI:  Profit in its credit-card business fell to $35 million from $202 million last year because of Target&#039;s lower investment in the portfolio, a decline in its overall performance because of higher bad-debt expenses and lower interest rates.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The company sold 47 percent of its credit card receivables to JPMorgan Chase in May.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Target said it will stop most share repurchases for now and cut its 2009 expected capital expenditures by $1 billion, mainly due to a lower estimate of 2009 investments in stores that would have opened in 2010 and beyond.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&quot;The current environment and our financial outlook have naturally reduced our appetite for investment in our business,&quot; Chief Financial Officer Doug Scovanner said in a statement.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Meanwhile, Target said it was still evaluating the proposal last month by investor William Ackman...&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&gt;&gt;  Something tells me that JPMorgan Chase has a deal with Treasury, and thus Treasury is essentially helping JP extend credit to Target and meanwhile Target will reward its insiders and so on and so forth...  does this mean Target is supported by taxpayers and will wal-mart be next, huh, huh?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Retail news FYI:  Profit in its credit-card business fell to $35 million from $202 million last year because of Target&#39;s lower investment in the portfolio, a decline in its overall performance because of higher bad-debt expenses and lower interest rates.</p>
<p>The company sold 47 percent of its credit card receivables to JPMorgan Chase in May.</p>
<p>Target said it will stop most share repurchases for now and cut its 2009 expected capital expenditures by $1 billion, mainly due to a lower estimate of 2009 investments in stores that would have opened in 2010 and beyond.</p>
<p>&quot;The current environment and our financial outlook have naturally reduced our appetite for investment in our business,&quot; Chief Financial Officer Doug Scovanner said in a statement.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Target said it was still evaluating the proposal last month by investor William Ackman&#8230;</p>
<p>&gt;&gt;  Something tells me that JPMorgan Chase has a deal with Treasury, and thus Treasury is essentially helping JP extend credit to Target and meanwhile Target will reward its insiders and so on and so forth&#8230;  does this mean Target is supported by taxpayers and will wal-mart be next, huh, huh?</p>
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		<title>By: Peripheral Visionary</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26051</link>
		<dc:creator>Peripheral Visionary</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I agree with anon 6:24; rather than scaling down operations across the supply chain, it appears that the textiles industry is putting a massive reduction in purchase of raw materials while it works through its inventory.  It&#039;s not an illogical move, but as pointed out, it could mean fewer suppliers available when the industry eventually needs to start purchasing raw materials again.  Lower inventories are less of a financial burden, but they could also leave the industry very exposed should materials costs and/or shipping costs suddenly reverse and head higher (between the two, I suspect transportation costs will stay low, but cotton may rebound.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with anon 6:24; rather than scaling down operations across the supply chain, it appears that the textiles industry is putting a massive reduction in purchase of raw materials while it works through its inventory.  It&#8217;s not an illogical move, but as pointed out, it could mean fewer suppliers available when the industry eventually needs to start purchasing raw materials again.  Lower inventories are less of a financial burden, but they could also leave the industry very exposed should materials costs and/or shipping costs suddenly reverse and head higher (between the two, I suspect transportation costs will stay low, but cotton may rebound.)</p>
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		<title>By: Matt Dubuque</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26049</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt Dubuque</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:54:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The fall in the price of cotton is ONLY surprising if you do not understand the SCOPE of the deflationary risks we face.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Nothing is immune.  That includes staples.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;We face a risk, not a certainty, of HYPERdeflation.  This is a sign of that.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Avoid the American press.  Turn off the television.  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Get up to speed.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Matt Dubuque</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fall in the price of cotton is ONLY surprising if you do not understand the SCOPE of the deflationary risks we face.</p>
<p>Nothing is immune.  That includes staples.</p>
<p>We face a risk, not a certainty, of HYPERdeflation.  This is a sign of that.</p>
<p>Avoid the American press.  Turn off the television.  </p>
<p>Get up to speed.</p>
<p>Matt Dubuque</p>
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		<title>By: CTMM</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26043</link>
		<dc:creator>CTMM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 14:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I don&#039;t find this suprising-&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Most people I know seem to have 20-30 outfits. We have an odd cultural pattern where you can&#039;t wear the same outfit all the time.  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Maintaining a wardrobe that size (one you change based on &quot;fashion&quot; not &quot;wear and tear&quot;) is surely discretionary spending. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I remember living in London a few years ago and being surprised that most people had 2-3 outfits, and just rotated through those.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t find this suprising-</p>
<p>Most people I know seem to have 20-30 outfits. We have an odd cultural pattern where you can&#8217;t wear the same outfit all the time.  </p>
<p>Maintaining a wardrobe that size (one you change based on &#8220;fashion&#8221; not &#8220;wear and tear&#8221;) is surely discretionary spending. </p>
<p>I remember living in London a few years ago and being surprised that most people had 2-3 outfits, and just rotated through those.</p>
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		<title>By: eh</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26037</link>
		<dc:creator>eh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:12:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;i&gt;Mish&#039;s comment: &#039;Meanwhile Paulson and Bernanke are in a battle with Bloomberg because they are failing to disclose to investors exactly what they are doing with taxpayer money.&#039;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I&#039;m no expert, but regarding Bernanke I don&#039;t see that the money being created by the Fed to expand its balance sheet (?) is &quot;taxpayer money&quot;. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;As for Paulson and the money borrowed (into existence?) by the Treasury, yes -- this debt represents obligations of US taxpayers.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Mish&#8217;s comment: &#8216;Meanwhile Paulson and Bernanke are in a battle with Bloomberg because they are failing to disclose to investors exactly what they are doing with taxpayer money.&#8217;</i></p>
<p>I&#8217;m no expert, but regarding Bernanke I don&#8217;t see that the money being created by the Fed to expand its balance sheet (?) is &#8220;taxpayer money&#8221;. </p>
<p>As for Paulson and the money borrowed (into existence?) by the Treasury, yes &#8212; this debt represents obligations of US taxpayers.</p>
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		<title>By: River</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26034</link>
		<dc:creator>River</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 11:35:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply/#comment-26034</guid>
		<description>G-20 statement: &#039;Accounting standards should be harmonized around the world, the group said, and regulators should consider whether current rules properly value securities, particularly complex, illiquic products, during times of stress.&#039;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Mish&#039;s comment: &#039;This sounds suspiciously like a move away from mark to market accounting to more mark to fantasy accounting.&#039;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;G-20 statement: &#039;The leaders directed their finance misisters to work on recommendations for enchancing disclosure by investors and institutions, including hedge funds, of their financial conditions.&#039;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Mish&#039;s comment: &#039;Meanwhile Paulson and Bernanke are in a battle with Bloomberg because they are failing to disclose to investors exactly what they are doing with taxpayer money.&#039;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&#039;Top 5 Things G-20 Ignored&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;05: US Dollar Hegemony.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;04: Micro-Mismanagement of interest rates by the Fed and Central Bankers.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;03: Spending run rampant in US authorized by Congress. Same thing in other G-20 countries.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;02: Of immediate concern is the Collapse of Trade, Letters of Credit, and Baltic Dry Shipping. Please see Yet More Trade Finance Worries (Not for the Fainthearted).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;01: Fractional Reserve Lending run rampant, leverage, excessive credit creation, and unsound fiat currencies. In other words the G-20 ignored discussing the very cause of the problem we are now facing.&#039;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>G-20 statement: &#8216;Accounting standards should be harmonized around the world, the group said, and regulators should consider whether current rules properly value securities, particularly complex, illiquic products, during times of stress.&#8217;</p>
<p>Mish&#8217;s comment: &#8216;This sounds suspiciously like a move away from mark to market accounting to more mark to fantasy accounting.&#8217;</p>
<p>G-20 statement: &#8216;The leaders directed their finance misisters to work on recommendations for enchancing disclosure by investors and institutions, including hedge funds, of their financial conditions.&#8217;</p>
<p>Mish&#8217;s comment: &#8216;Meanwhile Paulson and Bernanke are in a battle with Bloomberg because they are failing to disclose to investors exactly what they are doing with taxpayer money.&#8217;</p>
<p>&#8216;Top 5 Things G-20 Ignored</p>
<p>05: US Dollar Hegemony.</p>
<p>04: Micro-Mismanagement of interest rates by the Fed and Central Bankers.</p>
<p>03: Spending run rampant in US authorized by Congress. Same thing in other G-20 countries.</p>
<p>02: Of immediate concern is the Collapse of Trade, Letters of Credit, and Baltic Dry Shipping. Please see Yet More Trade Finance Worries (Not for the Fainthearted).</p>
<p>01: Fractional Reserve Lending run rampant, leverage, excessive credit creation, and unsound fiat currencies. In other words the G-20 ignored discussing the very cause of the problem we are now facing.&#8217;</p>
<p><a href="http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/</a></p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26033</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 11:24:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>There is clear evidence that retailers are withholding payment to suppliers for longer whilst reducing inventories. This is working its way back up the supply chain as each party reduces inventory. At the root of the chain like the cotton producer there is just no demand, as everyone works to reduce inventories rather than order new stock from suppliers. Compounding the problem is the problem with letters of credit, but more so the withdrawal of supplier credit insurance. Insurance companies are ratcheting up costs and cutting back their exposure to risks meaning suppliers are being exposed to more and more risk further down the chain.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;  The end result will most likely be some cotton producers will go out of business, which when the supply chain has consumed all its spare inventories may mean a production shortage. The risk is that if the inventory reduction is prolonged then you could get a significant rebound in commodity prices as producers have gone out of business and there are not enough producers to meet demand. A commodity price rebound has to be what China and the US fear most as this would cut Chinas surpluses and hence their need to buy US treasuries. Inflation risks might bloom as a result and it would be up to the FED to time the transition of policy for inflationary pricing in a deflationary environment exactly right. Tightrope walking comes to mind.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is clear evidence that retailers are withholding payment to suppliers for longer whilst reducing inventories. This is working its way back up the supply chain as each party reduces inventory. At the root of the chain like the cotton producer there is just no demand, as everyone works to reduce inventories rather than order new stock from suppliers. Compounding the problem is the problem with letters of credit, but more so the withdrawal of supplier credit insurance. Insurance companies are ratcheting up costs and cutting back their exposure to risks meaning suppliers are being exposed to more and more risk further down the chain.</p>
<p>  The end result will most likely be some cotton producers will go out of business, which when the supply chain has consumed all its spare inventories may mean a production shortage. The risk is that if the inventory reduction is prolonged then you could get a significant rebound in commodity prices as producers have gone out of business and there are not enough producers to meet demand. A commodity price rebound has to be what China and the US fear most as this would cut Chinas surpluses and hence their need to buy US treasuries. Inflation risks might bloom as a result and it would be up to the FED to time the transition of policy for inflationary pricing in a deflationary environment exactly right. Tightrope walking comes to mind.</p>
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		<title>By: eh</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26028</link>
		<dc:creator>eh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I&#039;m sure the blabfest over the weekend in Washington fixed these problems.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m sure the blabfest over the weekend in Washington fixed these problems.</p>
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		<title>By: River</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply.html#comment-26026</link>
		<dc:creator>River</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:22:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cotton-exports-fall-sharply/#comment-26026</guid>
		<description>Chain reaction in the real economy. Receivables pile up, manufacturers can&#039;t pay commodities suppliers, struggle to make payrolls, forget expansion.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Retailers that were on 30-60-90 day same as cash accounts with wholesalers are suddenly cut off because no one in the supply chain has access to cheap or reasonably priced credit. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Anyone that has run a small to medium size business through a recession knows what this is like. Those managers that are forced to lay off good workers in hard times are stressed.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Meanwhile the Gov is busily concentrating on Wall St bailouts, doing nothing to help the real economy. Perhaps when the azz hats go to the store to buy some new cotton underware they will find none for sale?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chain reaction in the real economy. Receivables pile up, manufacturers can&#8217;t pay commodities suppliers, struggle to make payrolls, forget expansion.</p>
<p>Retailers that were on 30-60-90 day same as cash accounts with wholesalers are suddenly cut off because no one in the supply chain has access to cheap or reasonably priced credit. </p>
<p>Anyone that has run a small to medium size business through a recession knows what this is like. Those managers that are forced to lay off good workers in hard times are stressed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Gov is busily concentrating on Wall St bailouts, doing nothing to help the real economy. Perhaps when the azz hats go to the store to buy some new cotton underware they will find none for sale?</p>
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