Given the still expanding/deepening of crisis, not unlikely the above cited numbers will prove extremely conservative and modern crisis management techniques prove their practical ineffectiveness.

Worth considering: What is a Crisis of Overproduction

I stand to see what will be the reaction by the rest of the world (Central Banks). Will they accept the dollar or revert back to Gold (Unlikely). Then if so, the gold has absolutely no value as currency and should be value the same as other metals such as platinum.

I personally think Oil will take the place of gold (clique) as a new insurance against Armageddon. It is much more useful than gold.

Understanding that no single definition is sufficient, the BLS provides a set of ‘alternative’ unemployment measures with every monthly report. While the U-3 measure, which is the official, (i.e. headline), unemployment rate came in at 6.5 percent last month, the broader U-6 measure posted 11.8 percent. If the old U-7 had not been discontinued years ago, I’ve little doubt it would be in the mid-13s.

This is your LAST warning. I told you to quit making stuff up here.

Gold did not plunge today. It is now $736 an ounce. It has been slowly, if anything, basing higher and higher. When it went down in the recent past, the lows would be around $700 (it went as low at $680), then $720ish, then $730ish, now $735-40ish, The high on its trading range have also been moving up, even as oil has been trading down.

I am NOT advocating gold. I think many people buy it for reasons that may not make any sense. But I am NOT going to tolerate ANYONE dispensing false information out of narrow self-promotional interests. I also delete spam comments for various market timing services when I find them.

We can also look forward to elections in 2010, and if unemployment is anywhere near 12%, you can bet Congress will cut taxes and raise spending so as to send the budget deficit surging past $2 trillion. We can also look forward to President Obama selecting a Fed chief then. If Bernanke wants to keep his job, then he will dutifully monetize much of this $2 trillion deficit. Anyone who doubts the combined powers of fiscal and monetary policy to combat deflation doesn’t understand anything about economics, and anyone who doubts the willingness of politicians to take the inflationary road out so as to avoid the pain of deflation doesn’t understand anything about politics.

BTW Japan is not an example of the failure of monetary/fiscal policy. The Japanese simply didn’t try hard enough. A debt/GDP ratio of 200% isn’t inflationary? Fine, try 300% or 500% or 1000%. Print enough money, and you’ll get inflation. The reason the Japanese didn’t try to generate inflation is that they had other ways of ameliorating the pain of deflation (such as allowing banks to keep bad loans hidden on their books for decades at a time, etc). We could similarly try to paper over the deflation, but that doesn’t seem to be likely. Just look at what the Fed and Treasury are doing right now, and extrapolate forwards. That $700 billion bailout is just the first step…

SilverDollar

Thank you very much for posting that Barclay’s oil report. I really appreciate it. Where does one find these?

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/chaize/chaize110408.html

“The reason that I don’t agree is the natural gas supply situation, which is extremely bearish for prices. Oil and gas are not short-run substitutes, but they can substitute for each other in the long run (and they have). Over time, it makes no sense that BTUs (or GJs if you’re not American) can be priced differently (allowing for convenience, transportation, storage, and volatility).”

2008 lower 48 natural gas production increased 8% year-over-year. We haven’t even come close to tapping out North American natural gas supply. Internationally, natural gas is even earlier in the growth curve. Liquified natural gas (LNG) growth will add another North America in the next five to ten years. “

- I don’t know what you are reading, but it’s not what I’m reading, which says, in effect, and no offense intended, that your conclusion is without merit. It’s not that the stat you offer on year over year (’07 to ‘08) production in natural gas isn’t accurate, but, going forward, it will not provide the long term relief you assert.

“And when all else fails, there’s coal.”

You may have not have heard President elect Obama say that he is going to, no pun intended, and here I paraphrase, bury the coal industry. We’re not in Cheney Bush land anymore. Coal is not an option.