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	<title>Comments on: $75 Billion Needlessly Lost in Hasty Lehman Bankruptcy Filing?</title>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30781</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:11:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Yves:&lt;br/&gt;There are a couple of exagerations in the piece you wrote.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The securities industry wants these exemptions because without them people would be reluctant to enter into  repurchase agreements and derivatives because of the inability to manage risk through collateral. &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Second, Jim Bianco&#039;s statement that your credit rating gets downgraded to that of your weakest counterparty is an exaggeration. Many derivatives contracts are collateralized; a downgrade could prompt the requirement of the weaker counterparty to accept a larger haircut (post more excess collateral) or in some cases allow the trade to be unwounded or reassigned. It would also mean that fewer counterparties would be permitted to trade.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Second, the change in the bankruptcy law on repurchase agreements is not so malignent as you maintain. Normally counterparties in derivatives contracts and repurchase agreements attempt to limit their losses by requiring each other to post collateral. Under current law and contracts when one party declares bankruptcy the counterparty can typically unwind the trade at market prices and seize collateral up to the amount owed. It appears the law you cite merely expanded the types of transactions exempted. Without such exemptions, the collateral would be frozen in the bankruptcy and the counterparty would be unsure of its recovery and unable to protect itself against possible price movements in the collateral.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves:<br />There are a couple of exagerations in the piece you wrote.</p>
<p>The securities industry wants these exemptions because without them people would be reluctant to enter into  repurchase agreements and derivatives because of the inability to manage risk through collateral. </p>
<p>Second, Jim Bianco&#8217;s statement that your credit rating gets downgraded to that of your weakest counterparty is an exaggeration. Many derivatives contracts are collateralized; a downgrade could prompt the requirement of the weaker counterparty to accept a larger haircut (post more excess collateral) or in some cases allow the trade to be unwounded or reassigned. It would also mean that fewer counterparties would be permitted to trade.</p>
<p>Second, the change in the bankruptcy law on repurchase agreements is not so malignent as you maintain. Normally counterparties in derivatives contracts and repurchase agreements attempt to limit their losses by requiring each other to post collateral. Under current law and contracts when one party declares bankruptcy the counterparty can typically unwind the trade at market prices and seize collateral up to the amount owed. It appears the law you cite merely expanded the types of transactions exempted. Without such exemptions, the collateral would be frozen in the bankruptcy and the counterparty would be unsure of its recovery and unable to protect itself against possible price movements in the collateral.</p>
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		<title>By: macndub</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30772</link>
		<dc:creator>macndub</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty-lehman-bankruptcy-filing/#comment-30772</guid>
		<description>Anonymous 11:50, I think this is the sentence you are referring to: &lt;i&gt;“If the Fed or the Treasury said, ‘Let’s say to Lehman, there’s no bailout, we’re not going to save the company,’ they could have supported an orderly unwinding of all the transactions over a period of months,” he says.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;While I defer to an expert&#039;s knowledge, I&#039;m not certain that he fully understands the details.  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The only way the Feds could have done this was backstopping the transactions.  For a variety of reasons, that&#039;s a terrible idea.  For one, backstopped transactions in New York will not save the London desk from a quick closeout.  I know of a lot of commodity desks that were reading ISDAs very carefully prior to Lehman&#039;s bankruptcy, to ensure that they&#039;d be jumping to termination as soon as legally possible.  &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;There is no reason to expect that Lehman&#039;s counterparties would have behaved anything other than rationally.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anonymous 11:50, I think this is the sentence you are referring to: <i>“If the Fed or the Treasury said, ‘Let’s say to Lehman, there’s no bailout, we’re not going to save the company,’ they could have supported an orderly unwinding of all the transactions over a period of months,” he says.</i></p>
<p>While I defer to an expert&#8217;s knowledge, I&#8217;m not certain that he fully understands the details.  </p>
<p>The only way the Feds could have done this was backstopping the transactions.  For a variety of reasons, that&#8217;s a terrible idea.  For one, backstopped transactions in New York will not save the London desk from a quick closeout.  I know of a lot of commodity desks that were reading ISDAs very carefully prior to Lehman&#8217;s bankruptcy, to ensure that they&#8217;d be jumping to termination as soon as legally possible.  </p>
<p>There is no reason to expect that Lehman&#8217;s counterparties would have behaved anything other than rationally.</p>
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		<title>By: mliving</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30763</link>
		<dc:creator>mliving</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty-lehman-bankruptcy-filing/#comment-30763</guid>
		<description>Yes but the more chaotic the more politicians were fooled into thinking there was no other way to &quot;save&quot; these companies.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;It&#039;s called the &lt;a HREF=&quot;http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine&quot; REL=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;&lt;b&gt;Shock Doctrine.&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes but the more chaotic the more politicians were fooled into thinking there was no other way to &#8220;save&#8221; these companies.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s called the <a HREF="http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine" REL="nofollow"><b>Shock Doctrine.</b></a></p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30734</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty-lehman-bankruptcy-filing/#comment-30734</guid>
		<description>Yves:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;The last argument made by Anon @10:47 concerning an orderly dissolution would appear to be supported by the bankruptcy attorney hired to represent LEH.  See the fifth paragraph of the following article in the NY Times:&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt; http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/business/14miller.html</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves:</p>
<p>The last argument made by Anon @10:47 concerning an orderly dissolution would appear to be supported by the bankruptcy attorney hired to represent LEH.  See the fifth paragraph of the following article in the NY Times:</p>
<p> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/business/14miller.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/business/14miller.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: Mitchell</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30730</link>
		<dc:creator>Mitchell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:29:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>For the people still asking &quot;why did they let Lehman fail?&quot; - I figured the reason was that the GSE bailout had happened just recently, and Paulson was trying to ensure that people (especially the remaining i-banks) did not get into the habit of expecting bailouts. But then the consequences of Lehman&#039;s failure were so huge that he immediately reversed course.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the people still asking &#8220;why did they let Lehman fail?&#8221; &#8211; I figured the reason was that the GSE bailout had happened just recently, and Paulson was trying to ensure that people (especially the remaining i-banks) did not get into the habit of expecting bailouts. But then the consequences of Lehman&#8217;s failure were so huge that he immediately reversed course.</p>
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		<title>By: Yves Smith</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30729</link>
		<dc:creator>Yves Smith</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty-lehman-bankruptcy-filing/#comment-30729</guid>
		<description>Anon os 12:47 PM,&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;I can only go on what the Journal reported, and the summary they made of the A&amp;M report contradicts bankruptcy law as applied to derivatives and reportedly keys off the premise that an &quot;orderly&quot; bankruptcy was an option, which per above, it was not.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Second, as Independent Accountant indicated above, A&amp;M is conflicted in the issuance of any report on the bankruptcy process, given their status as an advisor hired prior to the filing. An independent firm should have been hired and was not. Frankly, they should have recuses themselves (they could have provided data and analysis to a third party which would have made an independent determination).&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Third, if you do not think that firms to not issue client-serving reports from big-billing clients, you are sorely naive. I have seen repeated instances of highly questionable work, to put it politely, done at client request while I was at McKinsey and Goldman, and also have seen numerous instances of  dubious reports out of other major consulting firms and accounting firms that I have been asked to review in a professional capacity.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anon os 12:47 PM,</p>
<p>I can only go on what the Journal reported, and the summary they made of the A&amp;M report contradicts bankruptcy law as applied to derivatives and reportedly keys off the premise that an &quot;orderly&quot; bankruptcy was an option, which per above, it was not.</p>
<p>Second, as Independent Accountant indicated above, A&amp;M is conflicted in the issuance of any report on the bankruptcy process, given their status as an advisor hired prior to the filing. An independent firm should have been hired and was not. Frankly, they should have recuses themselves (they could have provided data and analysis to a third party which would have made an independent determination).</p>
<p>Third, if you do not think that firms to not issue client-serving reports from big-billing clients, you are sorely naive. I have seen repeated instances of highly questionable work, to put it politely, done at client request while I was at McKinsey and Goldman, and also have seen numerous instances of  dubious reports out of other major consulting firms and accounting firms that I have been asked to review in a professional capacity.</p>
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		<title>By: Anonymous</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30728</link>
		<dc:creator>Anonymous</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:47:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>First of all, if you guys think Bryan Marsal/A&amp;M doesn&#039;t know about the changes to US bankruptcy law in 2005, you&#039;re absolutely nuts. A&amp;M&#039;s core business is advising firms in bankruptcy. This is akin to saying that Citigroup didn&#039;t anticipate the changes to securities law that would result from the Gramm-Leach-Bliley law three years after it took affect.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Second, A&amp;M wasn&#039;t hired to write a report - they are in charge of the liquidation of the Lehman estate. You don&#039;t need 150 people full time to write a report.&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Finally, Yves, you seem to take it for granted that Lehman had to file for bankruptcy on the 15th. While ratings downgrades (which would have gravely hindered the chances of any recovery) were threatened by the credit rating agencies, those hadn&#039;t yet happened. Had Chris Cox not urged Lehman&#039;s board to file the night of the 14th and the company instead opened for business that week with the goal of unwinding its derivative exposure, a much different picture might have emerged.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First of all, if you guys think Bryan Marsal/A&amp;M doesn&#39;t know about the changes to US bankruptcy law in 2005, you&#39;re absolutely nuts. A&amp;M&#39;s core business is advising firms in bankruptcy. This is akin to saying that Citigroup didn&#39;t anticipate the changes to securities law that would result from the Gramm-Leach-Bliley law three years after it took affect.</p>
<p>Second, A&amp;M wasn&#39;t hired to write a report &#8211; they are in charge of the liquidation of the Lehman estate. You don&#39;t need 150 people full time to write a report.</p>
<p>Finally, Yves, you seem to take it for granted that Lehman had to file for bankruptcy on the 15th. While ratings downgrades (which would have gravely hindered the chances of any recovery) were threatened by the credit rating agencies, those hadn&#39;t yet happened. Had Chris Cox not urged Lehman&#39;s board to file the night of the 14th and the company instead opened for business that week with the goal of unwinding its derivative exposure, a much different picture might have emerged.</p>
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		<title>By: Hemant</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30727</link>
		<dc:creator>Hemant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I diasgree with part of Bena&#039;s analysis that the market would have moved as counterparties would have re-enterd their Leh trades (with fresh counterparties)&lt;br/&gt;Two reasons&lt;br/&gt;(i) I dont think anyone saw such a move in the weeks after Leh demise&lt;br/&gt;(ii)In many cases, the book would have been reasonably squarish&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;But yes, if a counterparty has two trades outstanding with Leh (in roughly opposite direction), I suspect the unwind value in each would have involved a massive bid / offer . And Leh (creditors) would be out of pocket&lt;br/&gt;So I dont know if 75 billion is ballpark or not, but some money would have been transferrred to counterparties as a result. The resr, as CNBC says, has gone to dollar heaven</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I diasgree with part of Bena&#8217;s analysis that the market would have moved as counterparties would have re-enterd their Leh trades (with fresh counterparties)<br />Two reasons<br />(i) I dont think anyone saw such a move in the weeks after Leh demise<br />(ii)In many cases, the book would have been reasonably squarish</p>
<p>But yes, if a counterparty has two trades outstanding with Leh (in roughly opposite direction), I suspect the unwind value in each would have involved a massive bid / offer . And Leh (creditors) would be out of pocket<br />So I dont know if 75 billion is ballpark or not, but some money would have been transferrred to counterparties as a result. The resr, as CNBC says, has gone to dollar heaven</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30725</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Dec 2008 02:06:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Back to the very first comment: Didn&#039;t counterparties gain $75 billion?&lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Isn&#039;t it all a zero-sum game in the end? Wasn&#039;t it just a bunch of marks on paper and computer files that changed?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back to the very first comment: Didn&#8217;t counterparties gain $75 billion?</p>
<p>Isn&#8217;t it all a zero-sum game in the end? Wasn&#8217;t it just a bunch of marks on paper and computer files that changed?</p>
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		<title>By: In a bunker until 2011</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/75-billion-needlessly-lost-in-hasty.html#comment-30713</link>
		<dc:creator>In a bunker until 2011</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 21:11:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>A big reason for the LEH pluge was Fuld himself.  He was not well liked and there were few favorable life rafts that were tossed his way during the lead up the filing.  Buzz around banking world was also that Paulson couldn&#039;t resist the chance to boost his GS buddies, and a LEH failure helped that.  GS was poised to be a even more catastrophic failure for two reasons.  First, it had more &quot;good&quot; debt that was rotten which would have rocked confidence beyond recovery.  Second, and not dissimilarly, is that GS is the cornerstone of wall street from a perception standpoint.  If it were to go, there would have been absolute choas.  &lt;br/&gt;Once LEH and Fuld refused the dire lifelines extended, Paulson &amp; Co. were free to let them go.  Once the world saw what a mess that created they were able to convince everyone that a GS failure would be even worse - hence their being bailed out via the AIG move - since GS was sitting on about $20B of AIG derivatives.&lt;br/&gt;As for the A&amp;M opinion, it is just further evidence of how these guys just like to throw good money after bad.  If the board wanted a CYA opinion they should have retained bankruptcy counsel earlier, which would have provided two iron clad defenses - (1)Attorney client privilege, and if all else failed (2) advice of counsel.  I&#039;m an attorney and I&#039;m pretty sure that opinion of consultant is not the best defense out there, and am hoping that some LEH bondholders read this.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A big reason for the LEH pluge was Fuld himself.  He was not well liked and there were few favorable life rafts that were tossed his way during the lead up the filing.  Buzz around banking world was also that Paulson couldn&#39;t resist the chance to boost his GS buddies, and a LEH failure helped that.  GS was poised to be a even more catastrophic failure for two reasons.  First, it had more &quot;good&quot; debt that was rotten which would have rocked confidence beyond recovery.  Second, and not dissimilarly, is that GS is the cornerstone of wall street from a perception standpoint.  If it were to go, there would have been absolute choas.  <br />Once LEH and Fuld refused the dire lifelines extended, Paulson &amp; Co. were free to let them go.  Once the world saw what a mess that created they were able to convince everyone that a GS failure would be even worse &#8211; hence their being bailed out via the AIG move &#8211; since GS was sitting on about $20B of AIG derivatives.<br />As for the A&amp;M opinion, it is just further evidence of how these guys just like to throw good money after bad.  If the board wanted a CYA opinion they should have retained bankruptcy counsel earlier, which would have provided two iron clad defenses &#8211; (1)Attorney client privilege, and if all else failed (2) advice of counsel.  I&#39;m an attorney and I&#39;m pretty sure that opinion of consultant is not the best defense out there, and am hoping that some LEH bondholders read this.</p>
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