Comments on: Guest Post: "If You Can’t Tell Who The Sucker Is…." http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:07:28 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Gloppie http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30266 Gloppie Tue, 23 Dec 2008 12:49:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30266 Yves is a male name<br/>Cassandra rocks<br/>Normalcy is overrated <br/>This is the big one all right<br/>But not how most think<br/>More pain will come Yves is a male name
Cassandra rocks
Normalcy is overrated
This is the big one all right
But not how most think
More pain will come

]]> By: GC http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30259 GC Tue, 23 Dec 2008 08:25:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30259 Wise words form 'fair economist'.<br/><br/> It is not difficult for economists like me to describe 'normal' in economic and financial terms.<br/><br/>The BIG problem is how to stop sustained and ultimately unsustainable divergences from normal. To quote Roubini today in the FT " markets are not self regulating each other".<br/>In other words, the invisible had needs some help.... especially in the finance sector.<br/><br/>Graham Cox Wise words form ‘fair economist’.

It is not difficult for economists like me to describe ‘normal’ in economic and financial terms.

The BIG problem is how to stop sustained and ultimately unsustainable divergences from normal. To quote Roubini today in the FT ” markets are not self regulating each other”.
In other words, the invisible had needs some help…. especially in the finance sector.

Graham Cox

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30251 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 05:19:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30251 "It is demonstrable," said he, "that things cannot be otherwise than as they are; for as all things have been created for some end, they must necessarily be created for the best end. Observe, for instance, the nose is formed for spectacles, therefore we wear spectacles. The legs are visibly designed for stockings, accordingly we wear stockings. Stones were made to be hewn and to construct castles, therefore My Lord has a magnificent castle; for the greatest baron in the province ought to be the best lodged. Swine were intended to be eaten, therefore we eat pork all the year round: and they, who assert that everything is right, do not express themselves correctly; they should say that everything is best." “It is demonstrable,” said he, “that things cannot be otherwise than as they are; for as all things have been created for some end, they must necessarily be created for the best end. Observe, for instance, the nose is formed for spectacles, therefore we wear spectacles. The legs are visibly designed for stockings, accordingly we wear stockings. Stones were made to be hewn and to construct castles, therefore My Lord has a magnificent castle; for the greatest baron in the province ought to be the best lodged. Swine were intended to be eaten, therefore we eat pork all the year round: and they, who assert that everything is right, do not express themselves correctly; they should say that everything is best.”

]]> By: Uncle Billy is A Confused Cat http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30235 Uncle Billy is A Confused Cat Tue, 23 Dec 2008 01:08:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30235 anon@3:30<br/><br/>I've been chewing on this for the last 3 years. <br/><br/>It certainly feels orchestrated. And I'm sure many would prefer to feel like it wasn't just the ultimate shipwreck resulting from rudderless policy.<br/><br/>I thought about your angle a little, but rejected it because I thought that the new depression would necessitate huge social reforms and big tax increases -- all of which *seems* antithetical to the neocon idealogy. As we've learned, though, our junta is not is not the small government self reliance thing we were sold. <br/><br/>So who knows.<br/> <br/>I had two other orchestration scenarios:<br/><br/>a) The bad guys went to college and figured out how to scam the entire world very efficiently and elegantly, and using all the tricks of modern psychology and pr. Good job, bad guys. You are really smart if this is what happened. Right up until the guy who lost his job and house shoots you in the head and takes your car.<br/><br/>b) Legitimately concerned council of academics (I picture them as Oxford Dons) games out a way, using our greed and fear, to knock down all the capitalist garbage that allows millions to starve and kill each other, and then build up a society that can respect itself. anon@3:30

I’ve been chewing on this for the last 3 years.

It certainly feels orchestrated. And I’m sure many would prefer to feel like it wasn’t just the ultimate shipwreck resulting from rudderless policy.

I thought about your angle a little, but rejected it because I thought that the new depression would necessitate huge social reforms and big tax increases — all of which *seems* antithetical to the neocon idealogy. As we’ve learned, though, our junta is not is not the small government self reliance thing we were sold.

So who knows.

I had two other orchestration scenarios:

a) The bad guys went to college and figured out how to scam the entire world very efficiently and elegantly, and using all the tricks of modern psychology and pr. Good job, bad guys. You are really smart if this is what happened. Right up until the guy who lost his job and house shoots you in the head and takes your car.

b) Legitimately concerned council of academics (I picture them as Oxford Dons) games out a way, using our greed and fear, to knock down all the capitalist garbage that allows millions to starve and kill each other, and then build up a society that can respect itself.

]]> By: "Cassandra" http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30231 "Cassandra" Tue, 23 Dec 2008 00:12:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30231 Clever, Dearie Me !! I concur! Clever, Dearie Me !! I concur!

]]> By: dearieme http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30225 dearieme Mon, 22 Dec 2008 23:09:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30225 The Normal Conquest will be bad for the Anglo-Saxons. The Normal Conquest will be bad for the Anglo-Saxons.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30210 Anonymous Mon, 22 Dec 2008 20:30:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30210 Here's kinda of a random question. What if all of the policy decisisions made to bring us to the financial point of no return were part of an orchestrated plan? Greenspan, Paulson, etc. Have alway appeared to be of the bent that prefered the Rand-ian approacht that called for no governmental intervention. A truly free market. The only way that was ever really going to happen was if the issue was forced. If a massive credit bubble was created - one which the US government simply had to deal with - the cost would be so prohibitive that the entire social safety net would have to dismantled or the country would become a third world banana republic in a decade or less. Could this all be a grand game of chicken to see if the beast can finally be starved to death (to paraphrase Grover Norquist)? Here’s kinda of a random question. What if all of the policy decisisions made to bring us to the financial point of no return were part of an orchestrated plan? Greenspan, Paulson, etc. Have alway appeared to be of the bent that prefered the Rand-ian approacht that called for no governmental intervention. A truly free market. The only way that was ever really going to happen was if the issue was forced. If a massive credit bubble was created – one which the US government simply had to deal with – the cost would be so prohibitive that the entire social safety net would have to dismantled or the country would become a third world banana republic in a decade or less. Could this all be a grand game of chicken to see if the beast can finally be starved to death (to paraphrase Grover Norquist)?

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30207 Anonymous Mon, 22 Dec 2008 20:18:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30207 I agree with Cassandra's analysis, but the frustrating thing is, reversion to the mean can take many different paths. And the appropriate response for investors or citizens planning ahead can be very different for each case.<br/><br/>Inflated asset prices, for instance, can fall in nominal terms. Or they can be ratified by letting inflation surge. It has become absolutely clear now that the US government has crossed the Rubicon and is furiously working to make the latter scenario unfold.<br/><br/>So, for instance, should we be buying shares at this point? A simple answer seems to be no, asset prices are still inflated and there is more reversion to the mean ahead. But on the other hand, common shares represent a claim on very long-term cash flows, and those in general keep pace with inflation (and certain Zimbabwean stock prices bear this out).<br/><br/>The worst thing, I think, would be to get the description right but the prescription wrong... I agree with Cassandra’s analysis, but the frustrating thing is, reversion to the mean can take many different paths. And the appropriate response for investors or citizens planning ahead can be very different for each case.

Inflated asset prices, for instance, can fall in nominal terms. Or they can be ratified by letting inflation surge. It has become absolutely clear now that the US government has crossed the Rubicon and is furiously working to make the latter scenario unfold.

So, for instance, should we be buying shares at this point? A simple answer seems to be no, asset prices are still inflated and there is more reversion to the mean ahead. But on the other hand, common shares represent a claim on very long-term cash flows, and those in general keep pace with inflation (and certain Zimbabwean stock prices bear this out).

The worst thing, I think, would be to get the description right but the prescription wrong…

]]> By: mxq http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30201 mxq Mon, 22 Dec 2008 19:19:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30201 (btw...it boggles the mind that 10:09 has to come to the blogsphere to learn manners) (btw…it boggles the mind that 10:09 has to come to the blogsphere to learn manners)

]]> By: mxq http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-sucker.html#comment-30200 mxq Mon, 22 Dec 2008 19:13:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/guest-post-if-you-cant-tell-who-the-sucker-is/#comment-30200 I agree with Anon @ 11:54. <br/><br/>10:09, your merdivorous jabber reflects an obvious competing interest with Yves' enterprise - of course, i'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that you're not completely psychotic. But what cowardice to make such an eggregious personal attack without revealing yourself or your true intentions. if your true intention is to make such a miserable opinion known, its best to just keep that to yourself. your parents should have taught you that. I agree with Anon @ 11:54.

10:09, your merdivorous jabber reflects an obvious competing interest with Yves’ enterprise – of course, i’m giving you the benefit of the doubt that you’re not completely psychotic. But what cowardice to make such an eggregious personal attack without revealing yourself or your true intentions. if your true intention is to make such a miserable opinion known, its best to just keep that to yourself. your parents should have taught you that.

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