Comments on: Investors May Be Too Optimistic About Consumer Recovery http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:18:41 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29307 Anonymous Mon, 15 Dec 2008 04:25:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29307 Man, it took these economist a year to finally admit an L shaped recession. I remember last time this year people are talking about a V, then a W, then a U, and finally we got the L. Frankly I think most investors know their shit better than the economists. Man, it took these economist a year to finally admit an L shaped recession. I remember last time this year people are talking about a V, then a W, then a U, and finally we got the L. Frankly I think most investors know their shit better than the economists.

]]> By: River http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29291 River Mon, 15 Dec 2008 02:30:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29291 Hi Lineup32. It looks as if China is gearing up to sell stuff cheaper than ever. Even if we are all unemployed maybe we can still get plastic Chinese crap for a buck at the Dollar Store. <br/><br/>This is going to get crazy. Every producing country is racing to get their currency to the bottom first. Maybe prices on imports will go negative and stores will pay consumers to take it home? Send in the cupon from the carton and the producer will send a check in the mail? :)<br/><br/>Aint globalization great? Hi Lineup32. It looks as if China is gearing up to sell stuff cheaper than ever. Even if we are all unemployed maybe we can still get plastic Chinese crap for a buck at the Dollar Store.

This is going to get crazy. Every producing country is racing to get their currency to the bottom first. Maybe prices on imports will go negative and stores will pay consumers to take it home? Send in the cupon from the carton and the producer will send a check in the mail? :)

Aint globalization great?

]]> By: River http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29290 River Mon, 15 Dec 2008 02:21:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29290 Somewhat off topic: <br/><br/>I am certainly glad that the developed nations of the world are going to cooperate to solve the cross border financial debacle. If this isn't a trade war, what would one look like? Does this mean the 'strong dollar policy' is dead. :)<br/><br/>'China to Print Money to Combat Slowdown'<br/><br/>'China will increase its money supply by 17 percent next year, the Cabinet said in a statement on its Web site. It said that would be 3 to 4 percentage points above the total growth of economic output and consumer prices.'<br/><br/>'Beggar Thy Neighbor tactics are a hallmark of deflationary times. When and how this madness ends no one knows.'<br/><br/>Thanks to Mish...<br/><br/>http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ Somewhat off topic:

I am certainly glad that the developed nations of the world are going to cooperate to solve the cross border financial debacle. If this isn’t a trade war, what would one look like? Does this mean the ’strong dollar policy’ is dead. :)

‘China to Print Money to Combat Slowdown’

‘China will increase its money supply by 17 percent next year, the Cabinet said in a statement on its Web site. It said that would be 3 to 4 percentage points above the total growth of economic output and consumer prices.’

‘Beggar Thy Neighbor tactics are a hallmark of deflationary times. When and how this madness ends no one knows.’

Thanks to Mish…

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

]]> By: lineup32 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29274 lineup32 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 21:38:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29274 If the current high level layoffs keep occuring then the two income family is in trouble and it woun't take long for the banking idustry to reprice credit risk for sectors getting hit. The idea that the American consumer can forge ahead and maintain high levels of durable good consumption keeping Germany,china,South Korea and Japan in the black while pushing up GDP at home is a joke.. a bad joke If the current high level layoffs keep occuring then the two income family is in trouble and it woun’t take long for the banking idustry to reprice credit risk for sectors getting hit. The idea that the American consumer can forge ahead and maintain high levels of durable good consumption keeping Germany,china,South Korea and Japan in the black while pushing up GDP at home is a joke.. a bad joke

]]> By: GloomBoom.com http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29271 GloomBoom.com Sun, 14 Dec 2008 19:58:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29271 Man, I was feeling fine until I read the article and all these comments! Good thing my office is on the first floor(for Europeans that's the ground floor, just kidding). Nobody seems to agree what will happen next year, if it will be Armageddon or just a severe recession. I'm depressed! Man, I was feeling fine until I read the article and all these comments! Good thing my office is on the first floor(for Europeans that’s the ground floor, just kidding). Nobody seems to agree what will happen next year, if it will be Armageddon or just a severe recession. I’m depressed!

]]> By: ruetheday http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29258 ruetheday Sun, 14 Dec 2008 17:04:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29258 There are WAY too many people looking for clues into what will happen next by looking at the 2001 or 1990-91 recessions. This one will not be anything at all like either of those. Unemployment and lost output will be more similar to 1973-75 and 1980-82, but the similarities end there as those were inflationary recessions. I honestly don't know what to expect. Judging by the behavior of the authorities, the similarities to 1990's Japan are most striking, but even so, there are significant differences (savings rate, trade balance, institutions/culture). There are WAY too many people looking for clues into what will happen next by looking at the 2001 or 1990-91 recessions. This one will not be anything at all like either of those. Unemployment and lost output will be more similar to 1973-75 and 1980-82, but the similarities end there as those were inflationary recessions. I honestly don’t know what to expect. Judging by the behavior of the authorities, the similarities to 1990’s Japan are most striking, but even so, there are significant differences (savings rate, trade balance, institutions/culture).

]]> By: fresno dan http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29251 fresno dan Sun, 14 Dec 2008 16:05:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29251 Consumers will spend less because...wait for it...they have less money. In Montgomery county Maryland you can look up real estate transactions on the innertubes:<br/>http://sdatcert3.resiusa.org/rp_rewrite/<br/><br/>Two years ago a house on my row of townhouses went for 350,000K, which was incredible. Now, the townhouse next to me went for 175,000K - no more HELOC, no more spending Consumers will spend less because…wait for it…they have less money. In Montgomery county Maryland you can look up real estate transactions on the innertubes:
http://sdatcert3.resiusa.org/rp_rewrite/

Two years ago a house on my row of townhouses went for 350,000K, which was incredible. Now, the townhouse next to me went for 175,000K – no more HELOC, no more spending

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29248 Anonymous Sun, 14 Dec 2008 15:37:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29248 I feel that the pain is much greater than most people expect. This crisis is huge and has many compounding problems that make it difficult to see any way out. This is probably the event that equalizes the world in terms of wages and standard of living. America can no longer just keep borrowing and outsourcing to maintain a higher standard of living than everyone else. We need to suck it up, foreclose, file for bankruptcy, work for less and start building stuff again. <br/><br/>Mark ROwell I feel that the pain is much greater than most people expect. This crisis is huge and has many compounding problems that make it difficult to see any way out. This is probably the event that equalizes the world in terms of wages and standard of living. America can no longer just keep borrowing and outsourcing to maintain a higher standard of living than everyone else. We need to suck it up, foreclose, file for bankruptcy, work for less and start building stuff again.

Mark ROwell

]]> By: nanute http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29243 nanute Sun, 14 Dec 2008 14:57:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29243 Bankruptcy reform: the law of unintended consequences. All the corporations will be able to get a fresh start thru bankruptcy. The poor individual consumer; no such luck. Bankruptcy reform: the law of unintended consequences. All the corporations will be able to get a fresh start thru bankruptcy. The poor individual consumer; no such luck.

]]> By: killben http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about.html#comment-29240 killben Sun, 14 Dec 2008 14:35:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/investors-may-be-too-optimistic-about-consumer-recovery/#comment-29240 I would agree .. that this is going to be a longer and different recession from the ones after the Great Depression ... one because consumers have become or trying to be frugal and two the repricing of asset is going to make the consumer feel poorer and further curtail spending.<br/><br/>that is why trying to drive consumption is leading nowhere ... you have wait for it to hit the bottom .... bankruptcies, job lossses, home prices bottom etc... I would agree .. that this is going to be a longer and different recession from the ones after the Great Depression … one because consumers have become or trying to be frugal and two the repricing of asset is going to make the consumer feel poorer and further curtail spending.

that is why trying to drive consumption is leading nowhere … you have wait for it to hit the bottom …. bankruptcies, job lossses, home prices bottom etc…

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