Comments on: Sudden Upsurge in Demand for Mortgages May Not Be Met With Supply http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:49:51 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: john bougearel http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30322 john bougearel Wed, 24 Dec 2008 03:28:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30322 There will certainly be demand, and it is ludicrous to suppose supply can't keep up with demand do to labor shortage. <br/><br/>Patrick is right, the gov't will pick up any slack in private entities to do mortgage originations. That is what the FHA is for. <br/><br/>Refi activity btw is already soaring since November. November is so 2008, Dec data will be so 2009 There will certainly be demand, and it is ludicrous to suppose supply can’t keep up with demand do to labor shortage.

Patrick is right, the gov’t will pick up any slack in private entities to do mortgage originations. That is what the FHA is for.

Refi activity btw is already soaring since November. November is so 2008, Dec data will be so 2009

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30305 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:34:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30305 Sorry, "not lending". Sorry, “not lending”.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30304 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:33:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30304 <i>Borrowing at 0-2.5% and lending at 4.5-5.5% seems like a pretty good deal.</i><br/><br/>OK.<br/><br/>But if the government is going to undercut the private sector on price, logically the government can't be bitching about the private sector lot lending.<br/><br/>Dumping is dumping. Borrowing at 0-2.5% and lending at 4.5-5.5% seems like a pretty good deal.

OK.

But if the government is going to undercut the private sector on price, logically the government can’t be bitching about the private sector lot lending.

Dumping is dumping.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30303 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:28:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30303 I refi'd to a 5.25% mortgage in 2005. There was no stability in the housing market then as prices kept going higher very quickly. <br/><br/>So why would there be any rational reason to expect the housing market to stabilize with 5.25% interest now? I refi’d to a 5.25% mortgage in 2005. There was no stability in the housing market then as prices kept going higher very quickly.

So why would there be any rational reason to expect the housing market to stabilize with 5.25% interest now?

]]> By: Patrick http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30284 Patrick Tue, 23 Dec 2008 15:59:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30284 There is a large demand for refis. If the private sector is unable to meet the demand, why shouldn't the Gov't do it? Borrowing at 0-2.5% and lending at 4.5-5.5% seems like a pretty good deal. There is a large demand for refis. If the private sector is unable to meet the demand, why shouldn’t the Gov’t do it? Borrowing at 0-2.5% and lending at 4.5-5.5% seems like a pretty good deal.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30262 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:25:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30262 Fannie and Freddie have a plan where by you can make up a value for your property. This will get round Loan to value restrictions and allow borrowers to access cheaper mortgages. I don’t know who is going to buy agencies bonds though as a result because you will have no idea what the risks are. I guess that is where the taxpayer comes in.<br/><br/>There will be a wave of refinancing as a result, but it will be by those who are not in difficulty. Those with the means to afford the costs of refinancing who will benefit. We wait with baited breath though as they announce soon no charges for refinancing with the taxpayer picking up the bill. This is yet another case of targeted action missing the target with a few gaming agency actions to their benefit.<br/><br/>Decision makers are yet again behind the action and on the wrong page. The new paradigm is about forced selling due to job losses and it is here that perhaps Europe is leading the way with appropriate action. Lenders across Europe are giving borrowers the ability to have up to a two year holiday from mortgage payments while they get back on their feet. Debt is not written off and will need to be paid eventually but forced selling ought to be eased as will house price declines. Fannie and Freddie have a plan where by you can make up a value for your property. This will get round Loan to value restrictions and allow borrowers to access cheaper mortgages. I don’t know who is going to buy agencies bonds though as a result because you will have no idea what the risks are. I guess that is where the taxpayer comes in.

There will be a wave of refinancing as a result, but it will be by those who are not in difficulty. Those with the means to afford the costs of refinancing who will benefit. We wait with baited breath though as they announce soon no charges for refinancing with the taxpayer picking up the bill. This is yet another case of targeted action missing the target with a few gaming agency actions to their benefit.

Decision makers are yet again behind the action and on the wrong page. The new paradigm is about forced selling due to job losses and it is here that perhaps Europe is leading the way with appropriate action. Lenders across Europe are giving borrowers the ability to have up to a two year holiday from mortgage payments while they get back on their feet. Debt is not written off and will need to be paid eventually but forced selling ought to be eased as will house price declines.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30258 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 07:56:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30258 How can you re-fi when housing is falling in value? Duh! How can you re-fi when housing is falling in value? Duh!

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30257 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 07:38:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30257 I seriously doubt there will be a tsunami of refi's coming up next year, unless mortgage<br/>rates drop below 3%, with The 30 year Treasury going below 2%. The other factor will be increased foreclosures and an increase in available homes driving prices a bit lower, so IMHO, there will be no rush to go sign up for a crap loan from some bank or mortgage lender that smells like GM, Ford, AIG, BAC, Wamu or about a thousand corrupt lenders that are begging for cash and bailouts!<br/><br/>Investors are not going to suddenly trust entities that remain dependent on fraud and in the hands of crooks; thus, if our government continues to fail to prosecute these criminals that are being bailed out, any recovery attempts will be delayed by many years. I seriously doubt there will be a tsunami of refi’s coming up next year, unless mortgage
rates drop below 3%, with The 30 year Treasury going below 2%. The other factor will be increased foreclosures and an increase in available homes driving prices a bit lower, so IMHO, there will be no rush to go sign up for a crap loan from some bank or mortgage lender that smells like GM, Ford, AIG, BAC, Wamu or about a thousand corrupt lenders that are begging for cash and bailouts!

Investors are not going to suddenly trust entities that remain dependent on fraud and in the hands of crooks; thus, if our government continues to fail to prosecute these criminals that are being bailed out, any recovery attempts will be delayed by many years.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages.html#comment-30256 Anonymous Tue, 23 Dec 2008 07:13:00 +0000 http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/12/sudden-upsurge-in-demand-for-mortgages-may-not-be-met-with-supply/#comment-30256 if lower interest rates does not result in increased lending, then refis does not really increase consumer discretionary income. it is merely shifting wealth from savers to borrowers. As a saver, my income has been diminishing in the past year... if lower interest rates does not result in increased lending, then refis does not really increase consumer discretionary income. it is merely shifting wealth from savers to borrowers. As a saver, my income has been diminishing in the past year…

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