Comments on: Asia-Europe Shipping Rates Drop to Zero

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 00:28:00 +0000

Agree with Mate’s comment and can only hope it is not “Check Mate”.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 16:55:00 +0000

I want to know what kind of subsideies shippers are receiving, Bunker charges arent enough to support the shipping facilities and large office these shippers have built. How long till we find out that some of these cash reserves, have been buying time

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 16:30:00 +0000

The holidays in Asia are near. In this bad year, the workers leave for their hometowns earlier than normal years. The production stops earlier tham before. I would assume that this factor at least plays an important role in the 0 transportation activity.

By: dave in sv

dave in sv — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 15:12:00 +0000

NVDA the last three years grew revenue better than 5% between September and January. Now (as previously posted) guiding down 40% to 50%!!!

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 11:44:00 +0000

The great, and predictable, deflationary spiral has begun. The Asian and European export ecomomies will be unable to resist viscious price (read employment) competition.

Another feature of the lopsided “free trade” seems to be about to erupt. I have always feared this one. Mercantilism hollows out incomes in the demand target, a debt bubble is installed to prop flagging demand, construction of parallel supply chain completed, debt bubble collapse, consumer collapse, non-profiable competition between competing supply chains instigates deflation, third world standard of living for all, Check Mate ?

By: purple

purple — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 09:16:00 +0000

Export oriented countries are going to be hammered when this is all said and done. A world economy based on US deficit spending, those days are over.

By: wintermute

wintermute — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 09:08:00 +0000

Zero rates make sense as a short-term measure to preserve long-standing customer relations – especially if some costs (wages, rents) have to be paid whether idle or not.

It certainly can’t continue like this. Soon it will be survival of the fittest shippers moving just essential (food) goods.

By: IF

IF — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 08:58:00 +0000

ndk,

I don't have any details on what really happened. All I can say is, that we had our share of problems last spring, but our line of products for Xmas would have been competitive in normal years. And Xmas should have been our strongest quarter, much better than fall, not 40..50 percent off. Combine this with recent polls (and general experience) for a tendency to cut back on high priced tech toys during bad times...

Intel's quarter is shifted a few weeks before ours. One guess is that theirs was half bad while ours was fully bad. I don't know. Just guesses. I found the announcement rather shocking. Had a bit of hope that people would need entertainment in bad times.

By: bg

bg — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 08:41:00 +0000

ndk,

I am close to Taiwan semi manufacturers, and the drops have been stunning. I only have informal data, which is why I have not come forward with it, but I would venture you could put semiconductors up there with CDS and BDI under your oy category.

Semiconductors are driven increasing by specific markets: cell phones, computers, telecommunications and auto's. which of those would you consider deferable expenses?

My real fear is the high tech has a unique problem with interdependencies between companies and technologies in a Just-in-time and capital intensive world. I think a minor breakdown could cause point shortages which could cascade. I have seen breakdowns first hand in the past, but there was transparency and urgency to fix problems quickly. I have only speculation to offer here, but it is a real fear for me.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 08:32:00 +0000

Intel’s warning is for sales to be down in all geographies, all regions.