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as always, The Onion predicted this awhile ago:

http://www.theonion.com/2056-06-22/news/6/

Perhaps they see the end of oil being reflected in the real estimates of reserves they look at instead of the estimates they report.

If there is an 800 lb gorilla in this article it should be that. I also support the notion that we will continue to be ahead of the curve in innovation for green tech. We have to be and we still have the educational infrastructure pumping out graduates that need work and a direction. Don’t lower the flag over America yet.

Anon @11:01 said:
"To the guy above, the Greeks came up with everything from logic to sodomy, look up where they are at now – an ex-communist country with a dying population."

Yes, good counter-example. Only time will tell of course.

"Every country gets their turn to have a stab at the forefront of humanity. Not that I am particularly fond of the Arabs, but they deserve a change. If they got 15 billion to burn and a cause that doesn't have to do with spreading the glory of Allah then I am all for it."

I agree with this too, but the Gulf States do not currently put out cutting-edge research. Thus, where will the change come from? Lots of money only gets you so far. I will become more convinced of this if I see more structural changes in their society, for instance a strong university system and allowing for the free exchange of ideas without recrimination, all of which will take time. This can certainly be done – Brazil had made great strides in several fields such as ag biotech for example – but I myself would wait to see more proof coming out of the Gulf States before I believe they they overtake the US in green technology.

"A lot of this talk of America came up with this and that … blah blah … innovation seems like gloating on the past."

I'm sure people said the same thing about the US when the Russians were first into space. Now look at how things things turned out. Innovation sure wasn't a "thing of the past" in the 50s and 60s, and it isn't now. Innovation is as critical today as at anytime in history, and the US has a tremendous amount of it.

Phillip Huggan @11:07 said:
"I get the impression the USA once had the best culture of innovation on Earth, but now stomped by Northern Europe."

I disagree. Again, my examples are companies like Apple, Intel, Google, Exxon and P&G. There are certainly some, but few foreign companies match these companies in terms of innovation. For example, last I checked Europeans were buying iPods and iPhones conceived and designed in the US, not in Northern Europe.

"For example an entrepreneur in Holland won't lose their business because of medical bills."

On this issue, I agree completely. At the same time, there's less chance an entrepreneur in Holland will create the next Google.

To both Anon@11:01 and Phillip Huggan: are either of you two in scientific research? I do, and a lot of my optimism stems from seeing all the possibilities out there right now. The research being done throughout the world – not just in the US – is absolutely amazing. My favorite example here is metamaterials and the possibility of an invisibility cloak. I believe, however, that the US will be at the forefront of turning these ideas into products and companies because we have a system here, from our entrepreneurial spirit to funding mechanisms to expertise, that is the best in the world.

But the emphasis of the story is odd, the oil producing nations want a share in the new technology, but they do not want to kill their golden goose–oil and gas.

They want to know what to expect, when to expect it, and (maybe) how to kill it before it gets here, but (certainly) know how to schedule it so that their profits are maximized.

Riyadh may be complaining about the low price of oil, but think of all the biodiesel plants that are having a hard time finding financing to get them through this current turmoil and you might have a better sense of the view from there. It’s almost as if the global financial industry took on the global oil industry and … lost!

Who woulda guessed it?

Don’t confuse me me for a chest-beating wrapped-in-the-flag republican here. I am in fact Canadian, a country where anti-Americanism is a national pastime. But having spent a few years in California, and recently moving back to Toronto, a few things became obvious to me.

One, a sound financial system and fiscally responsible government do not necessarily create a vibrant economy. Canada has weathered the financial storm quite nicely, our financial institutions needed no bailout and almost as if by attrition are climbing the rankings of highest financials by market cap. Until recently, most levels of government posted large surpluses.

But I have more faith in the American economy. I doubt Canada will ever escape being tied to the fortunes of other economies through their need for raw materials. Why?

All levels of government seem to have a desperation to spur innovation. Left and right-leaning institutes have all kinds of theories; either taxes are too high, or we’re not building enough bike paths to lure the hipsters, or we’re not being inclusive enough of minorities, etc. etc. The real problem is that when I talk to an average Canadian, or American, about an idea that I have, however outrageous, in general the attitude here is one of contempt, mocking or indifference. In the US, most people will humour you, and maybe even brainstorm. Of course these are broad generalizations, but I’m talking about culture, something inherently difficult to quantify.

In California I can’t think of a single “innovation and entrepreneurship” institute, yet entrepreneurs are everywhere. Who needs an institute when all you need to do is talk to people?

In Canada we have lots of academics and politicians telling us what we need to be innovative, what we lack are innovative people. And so we’ll continue to invest in some of the best universities on the continent and pour public money into useless programs and watch as the brightest Waterloo students get plucked by Google and Microsoft, the top medical professionals from McGill move south, etc.

I don’t have enough experience with the Gulf states to make an informed comment, but I do know that no amount of money can buy an innovative culture.

OK, I’ll pay for your one-way ticket to any of the Gulf States but you’ve got to promise not to kiss on their beaches, OK?

First Iraq gets back its electricity, then gets back its 4M in refugee flight, then retrains all its professors assassinated and fled post-2003, then tries to recover its archaelogical heritage, then gets back basic police order…gorilla??

“My opinion is that the US is and will continue to be the most innovative and entrepreneurial country in the world, and it’s not so easy for other countries to pick up this trait because our culture and values and system are absolutely essential to this process.”

I thought it was because USA beat Europe to New Deal by 20 years and I thought USA is now behind Europe because of corporatist individual culture. What are these values and culture and system that unlock tech innovation?? Access to venture cap is/was best in the world? Anything else? I get the impression the USA once had the best culture of innovation on Earth, but now stomped by Northern Europe. For example an entrepreneur in Holland won’t lose their business because of medical bills.

The main reason we went to the moon was because we were worried the Russians would get there first. The reason so many talented people spent so much time creating crazy financial products, is that we have had no external competitors forcing us to get real.

The one thing that will make sure we actually sit down and create things is the perception that we might lose a race to someone else. The gulf states fit the bill nicely.