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	<title>Comments on: Chrysler End Game: BK Next Week if No Deal (and Journal Says Even if a Deal)</title>
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		<title>By: run75441</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45958</link>
		<dc:creator>run75441</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2009 02:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45958</guid>
		<description>Yves:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Guess I gotta check in on this topic.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;66,000 workers up for grabs plus a probable equal number of tier 1 &amp; 2 workers, the same number of retirees, and a vast assortment of other non-automotive related businesses. Lets say another quarter of million job to be impacted? And retiree benefits to be PGBC? Return of which has been 40 cents on the dollar for some who have gone before. Lots of political capital gonna be spent on this one if Obama does not pull a rabbit out of the hat for these people.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Jeeps and Minivans are the mainstay of Chrysler; but, there is no reason it can&#039;t be better in other areas such as mid and large cars also. The goger rabbit cars are ugly in comparison to what GM and Ford offer. Cut some more models, keep the Dodge line of pickup trucks and vans and it could be viable as a smaller auto manufacturer. Yea, smaller and more efficent needs to be accomplished and they were on the road until W$ went cliff diving.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The largest issue with gasoline and oil conservation is &quot;not&quot; what is being driven around. It is how they are being driven. When gasoline proces went up; everyone slowed down, drove less frequently, and planned their trips. Net result was an ~5% reduction in gasoline usage. Changing our habits will have a large impact on energy. We are spoiled by our living in the US.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Creditors aren&#039;t going to roll, at least the big ones won&#039;t. We are playing with the likes of Citi and Sachs. They are probably hedged against the default of Chrysler in which case, they will make more money. CDS anyone???&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Just a few thoughts . .</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves:</p>
<p>Guess I gotta check in on this topic.</p>
<p>66,000 workers up for grabs plus a probable equal number of tier 1 &amp; 2 workers, the same number of retirees, and a vast assortment of other non-automotive related businesses. Lets say another quarter of million job to be impacted? And retiree benefits to be PGBC? Return of which has been 40 cents on the dollar for some who have gone before. Lots of political capital gonna be spent on this one if Obama does not pull a rabbit out of the hat for these people.</p>
<p>Jeeps and Minivans are the mainstay of Chrysler; but, there is no reason it can&#39;t be better in other areas such as mid and large cars also. The goger rabbit cars are ugly in comparison to what GM and Ford offer. Cut some more models, keep the Dodge line of pickup trucks and vans and it could be viable as a smaller auto manufacturer. Yea, smaller and more efficent needs to be accomplished and they were on the road until W$ went cliff diving.</p>
<p>The largest issue with gasoline and oil conservation is &quot;not&quot; what is being driven around. It is how they are being driven. When gasoline proces went up; everyone slowed down, drove less frequently, and planned their trips. Net result was an ~5% reduction in gasoline usage. Changing our habits will have a large impact on energy. We are spoiled by our living in the US.</p>
<p>Creditors aren&#39;t going to roll, at least the big ones won&#39;t. We are playing with the likes of Citi and Sachs. They are probably hedged against the default of Chrysler in which case, they will make more money. CDS anyone???</p>
<p>Just a few thoughts . .</p>
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		<title>By: tz</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45953</link>
		<dc:creator>tz</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2009 00:28:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45953</guid>
		<description>Obama&#039;s team doesn&#039;t meet CAFE standards, and the last administration said go out and buy an SUV as it was patriotic.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It is not protectionism to insist we not buy from countries where workers have no rights, they dump raw toxic waste directly into the air and water, and otherwise don&#039;t play by civilized rules.  Some of e-bay&#039;s highest rated vendors are fronts for shoplifting rings, but that is not free trade.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Chrysler may be a (3 headed?) dog (will Harry Potter&#039;s &quot;fluffy&quot; be the antidote), but it is one that provides jobs for americans and plays by the rules such as they are.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;CAFE standards are an 80+ billion dollar tax.  It would be like insisting that McDonalds sell salads or other &quot;healthy&quot; food for a nickel to maintain a &quot;corporate average nutritional quality&quot;.  Let the Japanese sell the tiny or &quot;green&quot; cars at a profit (the Priuses may all be sold at a loss), and let us do the SUVs.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obama&#8217;s team doesn&#8217;t meet CAFE standards, and the last administration said go out and buy an SUV as it was patriotic.</p>
<p>It is not protectionism to insist we not buy from countries where workers have no rights, they dump raw toxic waste directly into the air and water, and otherwise don&#8217;t play by civilized rules.  Some of e-bay&#8217;s highest rated vendors are fronts for shoplifting rings, but that is not free trade.</p>
<p>Chrysler may be a (3 headed?) dog (will Harry Potter&#8217;s &#8220;fluffy&#8221; be the antidote), but it is one that provides jobs for americans and plays by the rules such as they are.</p>
<p>CAFE standards are an 80+ billion dollar tax.  It would be like insisting that McDonalds sell salads or other &#8220;healthy&#8221; food for a nickel to maintain a &#8220;corporate average nutritional quality&#8221;.  Let the Japanese sell the tiny or &#8220;green&#8221; cars at a profit (the Priuses may all be sold at a loss), and let us do the SUVs.</p>
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		<title>By: &#34;DoctoRx&#34;</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45803</link>
		<dc:creator>&#34;DoctoRx&#34;</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45803</guid>
		<description>Yves-&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Your move to limit comments has worked!  Thanks . . .&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;May I add that the alleged &quot;Big Three&quot; have for some years morphed into finance companies with manufacturing subs?  Seen in that context, the agony of the automakers is entirely of a piece with what&#039;s going on elsewhere in this credit-induced mess.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;(Perhaps the single most annoying ad on CNBC in the real estate bubble days was GMAC&#039;s sub Ditech with its cross-dressing fat man pushing subprime mortgages.)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves-</p>
<p>Your move to limit comments has worked!  Thanks . . .</p>
<p>May I add that the alleged &#8220;Big Three&#8221; have for some years morphed into finance companies with manufacturing subs?  Seen in that context, the agony of the automakers is entirely of a piece with what&#8217;s going on elsewhere in this credit-induced mess.</p>
<p>(Perhaps the single most annoying ad on CNBC in the real estate bubble days was GMAC&#8217;s sub Ditech with its cross-dressing fat man pushing subprime mortgages.)</p>
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		<title>By: bob</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45796</link>
		<dc:creator>bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45796</guid>
		<description>&quot;Will contractors buy a Ram&lt;br /&gt;pickup that has been &#039;greened&#039;?&quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Only if they paint it pink.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Come on.....Do you still beat your wife?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Obamarx is going to make everyone in america drive flamboyantly gay cars that he designs himself.  The chrysler cock is first, followed by the jeep jihad.  Buying them will be mandatory in red states.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I am still amazed people want a car with 2 engines(hybrids).  Henry Ford is trying to dig his way out of the grave to get at that one.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Never underestimate the stupidity of the american public, they will buy anything.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Between the Caravan and the Wrangler, chrysler has already sold almost 50,000 cars this year, as much as the vaunted civic.  The ram alone sold 46,000.  Someone is buying what they are selling, even now.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;For the record, I am not a fan of his, it&#039;s just very easy to take the other side of that argument, and in this instance, it was fun.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Will contractors buy a Ram<br />pickup that has been &#8216;greened&#8217;?&#8221;</p>
<p>Only if they paint it pink.  </p>
<p>Come on&#8230;..Do you still beat your wife?</p>
<p>Obamarx is going to make everyone in america drive flamboyantly gay cars that he designs himself.  The chrysler cock is first, followed by the jeep jihad.  Buying them will be mandatory in red states.</p>
<p>I am still amazed people want a car with 2 engines(hybrids).  Henry Ford is trying to dig his way out of the grave to get at that one.</p>
<p>Never underestimate the stupidity of the american public, they will buy anything.</p>
<p>Between the Caravan and the Wrangler, chrysler has already sold almost 50,000 cars this year, as much as the vaunted civic.  The ram alone sold 46,000.  Someone is buying what they are selling, even now.</p>
<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html</a></p>
<p>For the record, I am not a fan of his, it&#8217;s just very easy to take the other side of that argument, and in this instance, it was fun.</p>
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		<title>By: Brick</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45793</link>
		<dc:creator>Brick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:25:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45793</guid>
		<description>Chrysler&#039;s rescue plan looked to hinge on sharing platforms with Fiat, otherwise they would not really be big enough to compete in the global market. With Fiat looking at GM Europe/Holden/Saturn, which is many respects is a better business, the future for Chrysler looks bleak. If fiat is looking at parts of GM then potentially it has the same problem in that it will no longer be big enough to compete in a global market.&lt;br /&gt;   Chapter 11 with profitable brands either being sold off to the likes of Toyota or Nissan for next to nothing or to an equity firm which will milk it as it runs it into the ground. It is nothing new and happens outside the US regularly.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chrysler&#8217;s rescue plan looked to hinge on sharing platforms with Fiat, otherwise they would not really be big enough to compete in the global market. With Fiat looking at GM Europe/Holden/Saturn, which is many respects is a better business, the future for Chrysler looks bleak. If fiat is looking at parts of GM then potentially it has the same problem in that it will no longer be big enough to compete in a global market.<br />   Chapter 11 with profitable brands either being sold off to the likes of Toyota or Nissan for next to nothing or to an equity firm which will milk it as it runs it into the ground. It is nothing new and happens outside the US regularly.</p>
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		<title>By: bob</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45787</link>
		<dc:creator>bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45787</guid>
		<description>http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070801/REG/70801004/1036&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&#039;The debt package also includes Chrysler Automotive’s $12 billion leveraged loan, which is still being postponed due to market conditions. Cerberus will hold the $2 billion 6½-year second-lien loan, while banks underwriting the $10 billion six-year first-lien loan, including J.P. Morgan, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, will hold the $10 billion tranche.&#039;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Some more good details in the story.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Another seat at that table:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/business/24pensions.html&lt;br /&gt;&#039;When Daimler sold a majority stake in Chrysler in 2007 to a private equity firm, Cerberus, it promised to pay $1 billion into the government’s pension insurance program if the pension plan failed within five years. The Treasury could try to persuade Daimler to put some of that money into the plan to avoid a failure. &#039;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070801/REG/70801004/1036" rel="nofollow">http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070801/REG/70801004/1036</a></p>
<p>&#8216;The debt package also includes Chrysler Automotive’s $12 billion leveraged loan, which is still being postponed due to market conditions. Cerberus will hold the $2 billion 6½-year second-lien loan, while banks underwriting the $10 billion six-year first-lien loan, including J.P. Morgan, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, will hold the $10 billion tranche.&#8217;</p>
<p>Some more good details in the story.</p>
<p>Another seat at that table:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/business/24pensions.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/business/24pensions.html</a><br />&#8216;When Daimler sold a majority stake in Chrysler in 2007 to a private equity firm, Cerberus, it promised to pay $1 billion into the government’s pension insurance program if the pension plan failed within five years. The Treasury could try to persuade Daimler to put some of that money into the plan to avoid a failure. &#8216;</p>
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		<title>By: B. Mull</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45786</link>
		<dc:creator>B. Mull</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:35:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Cerberus sank $5 billion into Chrysler at the beginning, but unloaded most of that to about 100 co-investors. I&#039;m guessing the $2 billion loan from Chrysler Financial&#039;s future profits is pretty close to what Cerberus took out in management fees, etc. They wouldn&#039;t want it known that they made money on this fiasco. Plus, the government is now motivated to approve the merger of Chrysler Financial and GMAC, so taxpayers can actually get back the $2 billion and Cerberus has a chance to make a whole lot of money.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cerberus sank $5 billion into Chrysler at the beginning, but unloaded most of that to about 100 co-investors. I&#8217;m guessing the $2 billion loan from Chrysler Financial&#8217;s future profits is pretty close to what Cerberus took out in management fees, etc. They wouldn&#8217;t want it known that they made money on this fiasco. Plus, the government is now motivated to approve the merger of Chrysler Financial and GMAC, so taxpayers can actually get back the $2 billion and Cerberus has a chance to make a whole lot of money.</p>
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		<title>By: sangellone</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45785</link>
		<dc:creator>sangellone</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45785</guid>
		<description>Assuming Chrysler is to be a car company and not a Federal jobs program, what is it that it can sell? Chrysler 300&#039;s? Dodge Ram pickups with Hemi engines? Jeeps that get 15 mpg? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Team Obama has got more than a financial dilemma here, it&#039;s got a dichotomy between the kind of cars it thinks Americans should drive and the kind of cars Chrysler can offer. Will people even want a Jeep&lt;br /&gt;if it is some underpowered lightweight clone of a Suzuki Samurai. Will contractors buy a Ram&lt;br /&gt;pickup that has been &#039;greened&#039;?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Assuming Chrysler is to be a car company and not a Federal jobs program, what is it that it can sell? Chrysler 300&#8217;s? Dodge Ram pickups with Hemi engines? Jeeps that get 15 mpg? </p>
<p>Team Obama has got more than a financial dilemma here, it&#8217;s got a dichotomy between the kind of cars it thinks Americans should drive and the kind of cars Chrysler can offer. Will people even want a Jeep<br />if it is some underpowered lightweight clone of a Suzuki Samurai. Will contractors buy a Ram<br />pickup that has been &#8216;greened&#8217;?</p>
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		<title>By: bob</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45784</link>
		<dc:creator>bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:02:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no-deal-and-journal-says-even-if-a-deal/#comment-45784</guid>
		<description>I often wonder about how cereberus hedged itself when it went in to this deal.  Could they actually gain on the default?  Remember, they didn&#039;t actually pay anything for Chrysler.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In a worst case scenerio, they installed a terrible CEO and ran it into the ground in order to collect on cds&#039;s.  Not that far off the charts from what I know/have heard about nardelli.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There is not enough press on all of the seats Cereberus is occupying in the auto industry.  They were also half owners of GMAC.  Now a bank, I lost track after that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I often wonder about how cereberus hedged itself when it went in to this deal.  Could they actually gain on the default?  Remember, they didn&#8217;t actually pay anything for Chrysler.</p>
<p>In a worst case scenerio, they installed a terrible CEO and ran it into the ground in order to collect on cds&#8217;s.  Not that far off the charts from what I know/have heard about nardelli.</p>
<p>There is not enough press on all of the seats Cereberus is occupying in the auto industry.  They were also half owners of GMAC.  Now a bank, I lost track after that.</p>
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		<title>By: Lune</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/chrysler-end-game-bk-next-week-if-no.html#comment-45779</link>
		<dc:creator>Lune</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:44:00 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Anyone know how Cereberus will fare in any of these scenarios? Quite frankly, they should be the first &quot;stakeholder&quot; to be squeezed. A process which decimates bank creditors and damages unions while allowing Cereberus to walk away unscathed would be deeply unfair (although par for the course for Geithner and his Wall St. puppet masters)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Anyone know how Cereberus will fare in any of these scenarios? Quite frankly, they should be the first &#8220;stakeholder&#8221; to be squeezed. A process which decimates bank creditors and damages unions while allowing Cereberus to walk away unscathed would be deeply unfair (although par for the course for Geithner and his Wall St. puppet masters)</p>
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