HOWEVER, THERE'S JUST ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS ANALYSIS:

We are NOT in a recessionary period. Instead, we are in a state of outright collapse. Those who deny this probably are the same folks who scoffed in 2000 at those calling the "new era" in technology a bubble.

We are in a state of collapse. The stock market (and equity in general) presently is in its "rearranging the deck chairs" phase. Over the next couple years, the market likely will collapse. Equity is DEAD MONEY. Long live debt. (How many more bailouts do we need to see before this FACT sinks in?)

Of course, there's no such thing as a "sure thing." However the risk is clear. One might duly note, too, that, denial of this possibility is frightfully pervasive. This, itself, is a huge red flag signaling the risk averse alert investor to remain extraordinarily cautious toward equities…

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20090406_resist_or_become_serfs/

"Resist or Become Serfs"

Excerpt: "America is devolving into a third-world nation. And if we do not immediately halt our elite’s rapacious looting of the public treasury we will be left with trillions in debts, which can never be repaid, and widespread human misery which we will be helpless to ameliorate…"

He is borrowing from Michael Hudson's great analysis in his article.

Which is ok I guess if you're one of those corporations, but for the rest of us it just means more expensive food despite the leaps in production efficiency, and no jobs to speak of.

200 EMA @ 940
50 EMA @ 898

Any further comments on this are encouraged…

2. If you want a foretaste of the predictive value of this golden cross, look at what happened after BA and NKE had their golden crosses BEFORE the SPY.

3. Look at the charts and MAs of 4 companies that played it straight and that are unmanaged:
WMT, COST, CB and NTRS.

4. If you really believe in this stuff, look at GLD. Now, that's a strong chart from a short, intermed and long-term perspective.

Well, you can have Singapore Jim. Frankly, you strike me as a cultural philistine which explains, among othr reasons, why you so prefer the sterility of Singapore to excitement of London.

[And what exactly does a low-pass filter do to noise in a system? Yep, "golden crosses" are taking advantage of a different mathematically-impaired demographic than the lottery.]

* Inflation/ deflation
* Alternative energy (solar, wind, nuclear)
* Chindia (China & India)
* Demographics (healthcare, biotech, etc.)
* Infrastructure
* New technologies (nanotech, etc.)

An OECD consumer back on earth, an Asia consumer born at last, limited taxation, no massive monetary crisis bringing international security markets to pieces … Suppose the world effectively runs into peaceful time, few problem to follow your argumentation. In case we run into nastier times, Rodgers is much easier to grasp. I'm sorry to say that the current period feel more like the 70s or 30s than the 50s.

IMHO you just CANNOT run a planet-wise globalized economy without a decent monetary system. What are the chances that we get one within a reasonable timeframe? Things will get worse until they get better.