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	<title>Comments on: Xie: Chinese Banks Funding Commodities Speculation, Casting Doubt on Recovery</title>
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		<title>By: ultarnerd</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49717</link>
		<dc:creator>ultarnerd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:59:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Hi bob.&lt;br /&gt;No I do not agree, I do believe that the US dollar is also a speculation.If you argue its less risky than other currencies well maybe I do not really know and do not care as I have put most of my money into silver and a bit of gold.&lt;br /&gt;Its a risky one too.Gold can go down but dollars can go to zero and stay there never recovering.Copper and lead etc should go down too but they are not also money and that&#039;s where gold and silver differ. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Its too much for me to print it all here so look up c-gold and goldmoney.com and do a Google search to find out how the US has been hostile to these company&#039;s providing a competing form of currency to the US dollar especially if they are US located.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Also see the forum  http://marketwatching.forumup.co.uk/index.php?mforum=marketwatching.&lt;br /&gt;These posters used to hang out on the Marketwatch blogs but recently created this alternative site due to claiming they were unfairly censored.&lt;br /&gt;Believe me this whole thing about gold and money wreak of conspiracies.I have lots more to say on this but need to be doing other things but everyone should be protecting themselves with at least some money in gold, just in case.If I save a few people then my time has been well spent.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi bob.<br />No I do not agree, I do believe that the US dollar is also a speculation.If you argue its less risky than other currencies well maybe I do not really know and do not care as I have put most of my money into silver and a bit of gold.<br />Its a risky one too.Gold can go down but dollars can go to zero and stay there never recovering.Copper and lead etc should go down too but they are not also money and that&#39;s where gold and silver differ. </p>
<p>Its too much for me to print it all here so look up c-gold and goldmoney.com and do a Google search to find out how the US has been hostile to these company&#39;s providing a competing form of currency to the US dollar especially if they are US located.</p>
<p>Also see the forum  <a href="http://marketwatching.forumup.co.uk/index.php?mforum=marketwatching" rel="nofollow">http://marketwatching.forumup.co.uk/index.php?mforum=marketwatching</a>.<br />These posters used to hang out on the Marketwatch blogs but recently created this alternative site due to claiming they were unfairly censored.<br />Believe me this whole thing about gold and money wreak of conspiracies.I have lots more to say on this but need to be doing other things but everyone should be protecting themselves with at least some money in gold, just in case.If I save a few people then my time has been well spent.</p>
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		<title>By: bob</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49307</link>
		<dc:creator>bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2009 20:46:58 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>The commentators I listen to most on China do not make much of the chinese posturing on the &quot;paper&quot; of the united states.  The US dollar is still way ahead of anything else they can buy in China.  Its major value coming from the fact they can get the dollar out of china.  China does not trust china.  The Chinese, and the rest of asia trust china less than the US.  The US may be bad, but the US dollar market size and scope is so far ahead of anything else that it makes an alternative at least 20 years away, in my opinion.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;China may not like the dollar, but their other alternatives are worse.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On commodity speculation.  Most commodities have a shelf life.  Food that is 5 years old is not food anymore.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Iron ore or other industrial commodities have a negative real yield, they cost money to store.  In a crowed place, the cost to store them increases.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;China is taking a snow storm mentality, they are stocking up on what they are going to need eventually, they don&#039;t have any more productive way to spend the dollars.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&quot;The Chinese see the dollar as a speculative piece of paper, not something which will retain its value over the long run like commodities.&quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It is not a mutually exclusive situation.  Commodities do not always retain their value over the long term, there are plenty of examples of that.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;This is a common logic trap that the chinese banks are falling into.  &quot;Well, they are buying commodities, we can give them a loan for that, worse comes to worst, we can sell the iron ore and get the money back.&quot;  At what price?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;How much is a pile of Iron Ore going to be worth in a country that has been stockpiling it and really has no productive demand for it?  How much are the banks really going to be able to get for it if/when the loan goes bad?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The only people who need iron ore are people selling steel.  China has a long history of subsidizing the steel industry, and dumping product onto the world markets when it needs to get rid of it.  How much do you think those state owned companies are going to be paying for iron ore to make steel that they are selling at a loss?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;If I am China I can also &quot;take&quot; iron ore from you, and let you subsidize the companies I want to keep alive.  Shipbuilding is already being subsidized there.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Its only worth what you can sell it for, and for at least the near term, that sale will take place in dollars.  Sure there are things that get bought and sold in other currencies, but all of that is on the margin.  The dollar may be bad, but it is still the best that exists.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The thought of the people who 5 years ago were flag waving &quot;ultra-americans&quot; now calling the dollar BS is so funny to me. I am not now, and never will be half the &quot;american&quot; that you are.  You may be right wing, but you were not right then, you are not right now, and you continue to demonstrate your clear lack of attachment to reality.  Horay Mr. Murdock, the Australian ultra-american.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Yes, we do have very serious issues with the our fiscal and monetary outlook, but we are still the least worst choice.  Sometimes, that is all it takes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The commentators I listen to most on China do not make much of the chinese posturing on the &quot;paper&quot; of the united states.  The US dollar is still way ahead of anything else they can buy in China.  Its major value coming from the fact they can get the dollar out of china.  China does not trust china.  The Chinese, and the rest of asia trust china less than the US.  The US may be bad, but the US dollar market size and scope is so far ahead of anything else that it makes an alternative at least 20 years away, in my opinion.</p>
<p>China may not like the dollar, but their other alternatives are worse.</p>
<p>On commodity speculation.  Most commodities have a shelf life.  Food that is 5 years old is not food anymore.  </p>
<p>Iron ore or other industrial commodities have a negative real yield, they cost money to store.  In a crowed place, the cost to store them increases.</p>
<p>China is taking a snow storm mentality, they are stocking up on what they are going to need eventually, they don&#39;t have any more productive way to spend the dollars.</p>
<p>&quot;The Chinese see the dollar as a speculative piece of paper, not something which will retain its value over the long run like commodities.&quot;</p>
<p>It is not a mutually exclusive situation.  Commodities do not always retain their value over the long term, there are plenty of examples of that.</p>
<p>This is a common logic trap that the chinese banks are falling into.  &quot;Well, they are buying commodities, we can give them a loan for that, worse comes to worst, we can sell the iron ore and get the money back.&quot;  At what price?</p>
<p>How much is a pile of Iron Ore going to be worth in a country that has been stockpiling it and really has no productive demand for it?  How much are the banks really going to be able to get for it if/when the loan goes bad?</p>
<p>The only people who need iron ore are people selling steel.  China has a long history of subsidizing the steel industry, and dumping product onto the world markets when it needs to get rid of it.  How much do you think those state owned companies are going to be paying for iron ore to make steel that they are selling at a loss?</p>
<p>If I am China I can also &quot;take&quot; iron ore from you, and let you subsidize the companies I want to keep alive.  Shipbuilding is already being subsidized there.</p>
<p>Its only worth what you can sell it for, and for at least the near term, that sale will take place in dollars.  Sure there are things that get bought and sold in other currencies, but all of that is on the margin.  The dollar may be bad, but it is still the best that exists.</p>
<p>The thought of the people who 5 years ago were flag waving &quot;ultra-americans&quot; now calling the dollar BS is so funny to me. I am not now, and never will be half the &quot;american&quot; that you are.  You may be right wing, but you were not right then, you are not right now, and you continue to demonstrate your clear lack of attachment to reality.  Horay Mr. Murdock, the Australian ultra-american.</p>
<p>Yes, we do have very serious issues with the our fiscal and monetary outlook, but we are still the least worst choice.  Sometimes, that is all it takes.</p>
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		<title>By: Independent Accountant</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49305</link>
		<dc:creator>Independent Accountant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2009 19:48:40 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>GCS:&lt;br /&gt;That&#039;s my point.  The Chinese see the dollar as a speculative piece of paper, not something which will retain its value over the long run like commodities.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GCS:<br />That&#39;s my point.  The Chinese see the dollar as a speculative piece of paper, not something which will retain its value over the long run like commodities.</p>
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		<title>By: George C. Shinopoulos</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49304</link>
		<dc:creator>George C. Shinopoulos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:38:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I don&#039;t see China&#039;s action in stockpiling natural resources as speculative. Rather, I see the continued investment by China in the US dollar as speculative. Chinese investment must increase the price of some asset, you pick which ones.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#39;t see China&#39;s action in stockpiling natural resources as speculative. Rather, I see the continued investment by China in the US dollar as speculative. Chinese investment must increase the price of some asset, you pick which ones.</p>
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		<title>By: mxq</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49278</link>
		<dc:creator>mxq</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:48:09 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>There is plenty of data to support this...whether it be &quot;strategic&quot; or &quot;private&quot; speculating...either way, its hording:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Chinese imports on a volume basis (per JPM):&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;As of April (year over year):&lt;br /&gt;Copper: +148%&lt;br /&gt;Iron Ore: +33%&lt;br /&gt;Aluminum: +2107% (not a typo)&lt;br /&gt;Coal: +167%&lt;br /&gt;Oil: +14%&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;There is no possible way they are actively utilizing (aka generating genuine demand) for those commodities with exports down a massive 25% and power generation down 3-4%.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In fact, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&amp;sid=auAy86CMvav8&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Bloomberg reported&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&quot;China’s State Reserve Bureau will probably stop buying copper, pushing down prices after a 63 percent rally this year, according to a trader at Zhejiang Honglei Copper Co...China’s demand will fall in the next quarter and imports will decline...“SRB’s purchases are coming to an end,” Zhao said. Prices have rallied and SRB has met its stockpiling target, he added, without elaborating...“Even with the stimulus package, Chinese copper demand is unlikely to grow beyond 10 percent this year,” Zhao said. Annual demand has expanded between 10 percent and 20 percent in the past five years, he said.&quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Just like distillates during the first half of last year, the SRB is hording commodities like there is no tomorrow.  All the more reason to believe Xie&#039;s assertions.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The point is, what we have seen in commodities over the past 6 months is a mirage.  Real, end-demand for this stuff just isn&#039;t there.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Furthermore, commodities are extremely volatile as an asset class.  Doubling and halving every six months is way more risky than the dollar, which might depreciate 15%-20% over the long-run.  That&#039;s one of the reasons why i&#039;ll never understand why commodities are so hot.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;(no positions)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is plenty of data to support this&#8230;whether it be &quot;strategic&quot; or &quot;private&quot; speculating&#8230;either way, its hording:</p>
<p>Chinese imports on a volume basis (per JPM):</p>
<p>As of April (year over year):<br />Copper: +148%<br />Iron Ore: +33%<br />Aluminum: +2107% (not a typo)<br />Coal: +167%<br />Oil: +14%</p>
<p>There is no possible way they are actively utilizing (aka generating genuine demand) for those commodities with exports down a massive 25% and power generation down 3-4%.  </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&amp;sid=auAy86CMvav8" rel="nofollow">Bloomberg reported</a>:</p>
<p>&quot;China’s State Reserve Bureau will probably stop buying copper, pushing down prices after a 63 percent rally this year, according to a trader at Zhejiang Honglei Copper Co&#8230;China’s demand will fall in the next quarter and imports will decline&#8230;“SRB’s purchases are coming to an end,” Zhao said. Prices have rallied and SRB has met its stockpiling target, he added, without elaborating&#8230;“Even with the stimulus package, Chinese copper demand is unlikely to grow beyond 10 percent this year,” Zhao said. Annual demand has expanded between 10 percent and 20 percent in the past five years, he said.&quot;</p>
<p>Just like distillates during the first half of last year, the SRB is hording commodities like there is no tomorrow.  All the more reason to believe Xie&#39;s assertions.</p>
<p>The point is, what we have seen in commodities over the past 6 months is a mirage.  Real, end-demand for this stuff just isn&#39;t there.</p>
<p>Furthermore, commodities are extremely volatile as an asset class.  Doubling and halving every six months is way more risky than the dollar, which might depreciate 15%-20% over the long-run.  That&#39;s one of the reasons why i&#39;ll never understand why commodities are so hot.</p>
<p>(no positions)</p>
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		<title>By: Independent Accountant</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49273</link>
		<dc:creator>Independent Accountant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:26:57 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>YS:&lt;br /&gt;I see something else.  China is not buying commodities, but selling dollars and putting the proceeds in anything but paper. China has decided the dollar is doomed and is getting out now to preserve some value out of its dollar hoard.&lt;br /&gt;Errata: gold is $936 per Troy ounce, copper, $2.24 per pound.  These prices are $30.10 and $0.00493 per gram, a 6,105 to 1 ratio.  Therefore copper is 1 / 6,105 as valuable per unit weight as gold.  5,000 times less valuable means copper was 1 - 5,000 = -4,999; -4,999 X $936 = -$4,679,064 per ounce, a negative price.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>YS:<br />I see something else.  China is not buying commodities, but selling dollars and putting the proceeds in anything but paper. China has decided the dollar is doomed and is getting out now to preserve some value out of its dollar hoard.<br />Errata: gold is $936 per Troy ounce, copper, $2.24 per pound.  These prices are $30.10 and $0.00493 per gram, a 6,105 to 1 ratio.  Therefore copper is 1 / 6,105 as valuable per unit weight as gold.  5,000 times less valuable means copper was 1 &#8211; 5,000 = -4,999; -4,999 X $936 = -$4,679,064 per ounce, a negative price.</p>
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		<title>By: Doc Merlin</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49272</link>
		<dc:creator>Doc Merlin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:55:24 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Wow someone who doesn&#039;t shovel the keynesian (sp?) BS.  Your arguments go from a much better direction.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While I am not positive that I am convinced, you definitely influenced me.  I will have to check some of the commodity companies I own stock in and see what  their production costs are.  Also if these prices are truly purely speculatory,  we should see a lot of selling on the side at lower prices to people who are not willing to pay inflated Chinese prices.  Time to do some research.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wow someone who doesn&#39;t shovel the keynesian (sp?) BS.  Your arguments go from a much better direction.</p>
<p>While I am not positive that I am convinced, you definitely influenced me.  I will have to check some of the commodity companies I own stock in and see what  their production costs are.  Also if these prices are truly purely speculatory,  we should see a lot of selling on the side at lower prices to people who are not willing to pay inflated Chinese prices.  Time to do some research.</p>
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		<title>By: skippy</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49271</link>
		<dc:creator>skippy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:54:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Did China shoot it self in the foot buying/stock piling commodity&#039;s, hence giving the Australian mining sector a bump, right when they were negotiating with Rio Tinto. They defiantly want a hand in price determination.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Did China shoot it self in the foot buying/stock piling commodity&#39;s, hence giving the Australian mining sector a bump, right when they were negotiating with Rio Tinto. They defiantly want a hand in price determination.</p>
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		<title>By: bb</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49270</link>
		<dc:creator>bb</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 11:07:25 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>i am perplxed. why commodities are bubbling again according to Xie?&lt;br /&gt;is it not true that commodities are what we eat, use to heat, dress ourselves, take us around?&lt;br /&gt;is it not true that commodities are what governments cannot produce out of thin air?&lt;br /&gt;why should raw goods stay cheap relative to unwanted and oversupplied finished goods like homes, cars, mattel toys etc.?&lt;br /&gt;all those have to be recycled to make any use of them.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>i am perplxed. why commodities are bubbling again according to Xie?<br />is it not true that commodities are what we eat, use to heat, dress ourselves, take us around?<br />is it not true that commodities are what governments cannot produce out of thin air?<br />why should raw goods stay cheap relative to unwanted and oversupplied finished goods like homes, cars, mattel toys etc.?<br />all those have to be recycled to make any use of them.</p>
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		<title>By: Snoring Beagle</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/06/xie-chinese-banks-funding-commodities.html#comment-49269</link>
		<dc:creator>Snoring Beagle</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Jun 2009 10:42:52 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I like this fella. I like the way he writes and the way it passes through my bullshit filter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like this fella. I like the way he writes and the way it passes through my bullshit filter.</p>
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