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	<title>Comments on: Guest Post: There Will Be No Recovery</title>
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		<title>By: Matthew Tripp</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50418</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Tripp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 05:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50418</guid>
		<description>The wheel of Buddhist terms poster Velcro modular wall mural game. Doctoral dissertation for philosophy, title: The Interpenetration of Buddhist Practice and Classroom Teaching.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;PARASITIC SPECIES INFESTATION alien robot telescope spaceship: audiobook first few tracks are good, PALE BLUE DOT as we transition to a knowledge based global society&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;as computing power increases exponentially and ubiquitous web enabled sensors allow for immersion in context relevant buddhist or ethics perspective, national broadband plan...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;www.dharmaprinting.com augmented reality sociology subject index and table of contents Chinese military intelligence genius clones life energy word abacus sustainability transmission measurement context mapping twitter.com/globalcide is me Google for EXTINCTCULTURE please let me know what you think about this topic www.computer.org/pervasive (FOLDING@HOME and BIONIC software&#039;s, engineering 450 million new species to make deserts habitable or telepathic ecosystem maintenance) autodesk inventor prototyping software for genetics use the audio book list on audibles.com to build course of life coaching training young orphan people to be CIA certified ethical hackers download free at nowtorrents.com because if the current post world war 2 education system was meant to produce factory workers (not critical thinking curriculum video from best teacher nationally then teachers answer questions and do research while the kids watch, pause for Q+A, the videos podshifter software for iTunesU ) how much worse is this continuation of using the bible koran instead of critical mass ecosystem dynamics physics logistics?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;google for flashcard database&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;subliminal education psychological profiling HDTV prenhall.com/dabbagh/&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;MIT OCW designing your life. The art of war flashcard deck, wikipedia article audio book the 48 laws of power... RAW stem cells movies: Eagle EYE, Minority Report, (gps and audio recording + all video survelance to DVR on web for all probation and parole ankle monitors, put more people on them and use software to monitor them, the probation or parolee pays for the ankle monitor and then gives it back to the probation office then the next probation pays for it again, thus buying another one) broadcom is makeing new version of these chips every two months now GPS + Bluetooth + WiFi + FM combo chip)&lt;br /&gt;audio + video security DVR in juvinile prisons with audiobooks streaming leave the headphones you buy behind for the next inmate&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;lifehack.org/articles/productivity/the-ultimate-student-resource-list.html&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;selfmadescholar.com/b/self-education-resource-list&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;web 2.0 directories: ziipa.com and go2web20.net USE THE TAGS cloud, also lifehacker.com and lifehack.org SHARE 99ebooks.blogspot.com&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;youtube.com/homeproject</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The wheel of Buddhist terms poster Velcro modular wall mural game. Doctoral dissertation for philosophy, title: The Interpenetration of Buddhist Practice and Classroom Teaching.</p>
<p>PARASITIC SPECIES INFESTATION alien robot telescope spaceship: audiobook first few tracks are good, PALE BLUE DOT as we transition to a knowledge based global society</p>
<p>as computing power increases exponentially and ubiquitous web enabled sensors allow for immersion in context relevant buddhist or ethics perspective, national broadband plan&#8230;</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dharmaprinting.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.dharmaprinting.com</a> augmented reality sociology subject index and table of contents Chinese military intelligence genius clones life energy word abacus sustainability transmission measurement context mapping twitter.com/globalcide is me Google for EXTINCTCULTURE please let me know what you think about this topic <a href="http://www.computer.org/pervasive" rel="nofollow">http://www.computer.org/pervasive</a> (FOLDING@HOME and BIONIC software&#39;s, engineering 450 million new species to make deserts habitable or telepathic ecosystem maintenance) autodesk inventor prototyping software for genetics use the audio book list on audibles.com to build course of life coaching training young orphan people to be CIA certified ethical hackers download free at nowtorrents.com because if the current post world war 2 education system was meant to produce factory workers (not critical thinking curriculum video from best teacher nationally then teachers answer questions and do research while the kids watch, pause for Q+A, the videos podshifter software for iTunesU ) how much worse is this continuation of using the bible koran instead of critical mass ecosystem dynamics physics logistics?</p>
<p>google for flashcard database</p>
<p>subliminal education psychological profiling HDTV prenhall.com/dabbagh/</p>
<p>MIT OCW designing your life. The art of war flashcard deck, wikipedia article audio book the 48 laws of power&#8230; RAW stem cells movies: Eagle EYE, Minority Report, (gps and audio recording + all video survelance to DVR on web for all probation and parole ankle monitors, put more people on them and use software to monitor them, the probation or parolee pays for the ankle monitor and then gives it back to the probation office then the next probation pays for it again, thus buying another one) broadcom is makeing new version of these chips every two months now GPS + Bluetooth + WiFi + FM combo chip)<br />audio + video security DVR in juvinile prisons with audiobooks streaming leave the headphones you buy behind for the next inmate</p>
<p>lifehack.org/articles/productivity/the-ultimate-student-resource-list.html</p>
<p>selfmadescholar.com/b/self-education-resource-list</p>
<p>web 2.0 directories: ziipa.com and go2web20.net USE THE TAGS cloud, also lifehacker.com and lifehack.org SHARE 99ebooks.blogspot.com</p>
<p>youtube.com/homeproject</p>
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		<title>By: Brick</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50375</link>
		<dc:creator>Brick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:48:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50375</guid>
		<description>It seems like we have a society of low quality throw away consumer goods bought by consumers whose wages are constrained compared to the upper echelons of society and who have an attitude of buy now and worry about it later. It is quite clear that corporate governance is geared with certain priorities in mind and this can only accelerate the disparities. It appears to me that top members of firms have the following priorities.&lt;br /&gt;1) Maximise your own wage, pension and benefits.&lt;br /&gt;2) Maximise the share holder&#039;s returns.&lt;br /&gt;3) Maximise profit by ensuring products have a limited life expectancy.&lt;br /&gt;4) Ensure you meet all the regulatory requirements&lt;br /&gt;5) Be environmentally friendly&lt;br /&gt;6) Look after the lower workers&lt;br /&gt;7) Ensure you don&#039;t damage the economy.&lt;br /&gt;By limiting top wages in line with average wages in the firm( 20x average maybe) you change those priorities significantly. By regulating on minimum guarantee lengths you start to address the throw attitude. Neither of these things stand a chance of being implemented even on a gradual basis even though it would help demand in the economy and give a better balance. Roll on the next boom and bust cycle as the flaws in current capitalism fail to get addressed.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It seems like we have a society of low quality throw away consumer goods bought by consumers whose wages are constrained compared to the upper echelons of society and who have an attitude of buy now and worry about it later. It is quite clear that corporate governance is geared with certain priorities in mind and this can only accelerate the disparities. It appears to me that top members of firms have the following priorities.<br />1) Maximise your own wage, pension and benefits.<br />2) Maximise the share holder&#39;s returns.<br />3) Maximise profit by ensuring products have a limited life expectancy.<br />4) Ensure you meet all the regulatory requirements<br />5) Be environmentally friendly<br />6) Look after the lower workers<br />7) Ensure you don&#39;t damage the economy.<br />By limiting top wages in line with average wages in the firm( 20x average maybe) you change those priorities significantly. By regulating on minimum guarantee lengths you start to address the throw attitude. Neither of these things stand a chance of being implemented even on a gradual basis even though it would help demand in the economy and give a better balance. Roll on the next boom and bust cycle as the flaws in current capitalism fail to get addressed.</p>
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		<title>By: ComparedToWhat?</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50365</link>
		<dc:creator>ComparedToWhat?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 07:18:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50365</guid>
		<description>Yves linked earlier, via Mark Thoma, to this NYT &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/business/economy/12view.html?em&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Economic View column&lt;/a&gt; by Robert Frank.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Rather than relying on mechanical analogies like automobile traffic, or fantasizing about &quot;a brand new track&quot; (since I live in the boonies I read that at first as &quot;a brand new truck&quot;), we&#039;re better off re-evaluating complex systems we&#039;ve created in light of what we know about complex systems in nature. And here I would encourage all to include &lt;a href=&quot;http://fora.tv/2006/02/13/J__Stephen_Lansing_A_Thousand_Years_in_Bali&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;pre-industrial humans&lt;/a&gt;. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Robert Frank makes the point that some innovations can make an individual more likely to reproduce but at cost to the success of the species. Maybe he&#039;s been reading &lt;a href=&quot;http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/jp-morgan-high-frequency-predator.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;ZeroHedge&lt;/a&gt; on high frequency trading? Or thinking about our bloated financial sector? Or the consequences of fossil-fueled development? &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&quot;Fractal: a word coined by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1975 to describe shapes that are &quot;self-similar&quot; -- that is, shapes that look the same at different magnifications.&quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;===&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;On recommendation of &lt;a href=&quot;http://mpettis.com/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Michael Pettis&lt;/a&gt; I&#039;m reading &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.amazon.com/Devil-Take-Hindmost-Financial-Speculation/dp/0452281806&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Devil Take The Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation&lt;/a&gt; by Edward Chancellor. Full of oddities and quotable quotes, Chancellor walks the reader down a rocky path from tulip mania to the late-90s tech bubble which was inflating as he wrote. If you need a bit of perspective on the current mess, you could do worse. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Chancellor is not a fan of the efficient markets hypothesis. He&#039;s willing to dig into historical records to see what really went down. He&#039;s also willing to enlist the perspectives of &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/Baverly_gal-61509-EdwardChancellorSpee-ch-Destabilizing-Stability-Greenspan-Era-reflation-Concerns-Three-arguments-against-Fe-edwardchancello-Education-ppt-powerpoint/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Hayek, Minsky and Mises&lt;/a&gt; in order to evaluate The Maestro.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Not to minimize the scale of the current debacle, but I take heart when AEI regular Chris Whalen comes out swinging against regulatory capture, and institutions that are too big to fail and too big to manage. Comparing &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/reforming-over-the-counter-derivatives-qa-for-christopher-dodd/http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/reforming-over-the-counter-derivatives-qa-for-christopher-dodd/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Whalen&#039;s remarks&lt;/a&gt; to lawmakers to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/galbraith_testimony.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;testimony of Jamie Galbraith&lt;/a&gt; is enlightening; there really is common ground on which meaningful reform can be accomplished.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yves linked earlier, via Mark Thoma, to this NYT <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/12/business/economy/12view.html?em" rel="nofollow">Economic View column</a> by Robert Frank.</p>
<p>Rather than relying on mechanical analogies like automobile traffic, or fantasizing about &quot;a brand new track&quot; (since I live in the boonies I read that at first as &quot;a brand new truck&quot;), we&#39;re better off re-evaluating complex systems we&#39;ve created in light of what we know about complex systems in nature. And here I would encourage all to include <a href="http://fora.tv/2006/02/13/J__Stephen_Lansing_A_Thousand_Years_in_Bali" rel="nofollow">pre-industrial humans</a>. </p>
<p>Robert Frank makes the point that some innovations can make an individual more likely to reproduce but at cost to the success of the species. Maybe he&#39;s been reading <a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/jp-morgan-high-frequency-predator.html" rel="nofollow">ZeroHedge</a> on high frequency trading? Or thinking about our bloated financial sector? Or the consequences of fossil-fueled development? </p>
<p>&quot;Fractal: a word coined by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1975 to describe shapes that are &quot;self-similar&quot; &#8212; that is, shapes that look the same at different magnifications.&quot;</p>
<p>===</p>
<p>On recommendation of <a href="http://mpettis.com/" rel="nofollow">Michael Pettis</a> I&#39;m reading <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Devil-Take-Hindmost-Financial-Speculation/dp/0452281806" rel="nofollow">Devil Take The Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation</a> by Edward Chancellor. Full of oddities and quotable quotes, Chancellor walks the reader down a rocky path from tulip mania to the late-90s tech bubble which was inflating as he wrote. If you need a bit of perspective on the current mess, you could do worse. </p>
<p>Chancellor is not a fan of the efficient markets hypothesis. He&#39;s willing to dig into historical records to see what really went down. He&#39;s also willing to enlist the perspectives of <a href="http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/Baverly_gal-61509-EdwardChancellorSpee-ch-Destabilizing-Stability-Greenspan-Era-reflation-Concerns-Three-arguments-against-Fe-edwardchancello-Education-ppt-powerpoint/" rel="nofollow">Hayek, Minsky and Mises</a> in order to evaluate The Maestro.</p>
<p>Not to minimize the scale of the current debacle, but I take heart when AEI regular Chris Whalen comes out swinging against regulatory capture, and institutions that are too big to fail and too big to manage. Comparing <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/reforming-over-the-counter-derivatives-qa-for-christopher-dodd/http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/reforming-over-the-counter-derivatives-qa-for-christopher-dodd/" rel="nofollow">Whalen&#39;s remarks</a> to lawmakers to <a href="http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/galbraith_testimony.pdf" rel="nofollow">testimony of Jamie Galbraith</a> is enlightening; there really is common ground on which meaningful reform can be accomplished.</p>
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		<title>By: Big Picture Trader</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50364</link>
		<dc:creator>Big Picture Trader</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 06:52:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50364</guid>
		<description>If the comments blathered about by commentators on this blog are any indication, we&#039;re doomed.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Yves, keep up the great work. Seems like most of the people here simply don&#039;t have the stomach for what&#039;s coming.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the comments blathered about by commentators on this blog are any indication, we&#39;re doomed.</p>
<p>Yves, keep up the great work. Seems like most of the people here simply don&#39;t have the stomach for what&#39;s coming.</p>
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		<title>By: Hugh</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50362</link>
		<dc:creator>Hugh</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 05:52:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50362</guid>
		<description>I wrote somewhere else recently that it would take a stimulus of about $1.2 trillion a year for 2 years with a 90/10 split between spending and tax cuts to create some 13.8 million jobs which I calculated would be needed by the beginning of 2011.  My main assumptions were that only 2 million more jobs would be lost this year and I made no assumptions at all about job losses in 2010.  My excuse for this was that I wasn&#039;t sure what the Obama Administration would do between now and then.  It probably won&#039;t do much but worsening conditions (and poll numbers) could at some point force Obama&#039;s hand.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Again this is something of a theoretical exercise since we are already 6 months into the 2 year timeframe.  &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Now while $1.2 trillion in stimulus spending is a lot of money and it really needs to continue into 2011 and beyond, it is far less than the last figure of $6.788 trillion given in the last 10 months by the Fed and government to bailout the financial system. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Initially funds could be used to support state and municipal budgets as well as education and some infrastructure projects.  But as I have been advocating for a while now and other commenters have said here, the country needs a policy to re-industrialize in a sustainable, less carbon and energy utilizing way.  It is of the utmost importance that stimulus be used to take us somewhere we want and need to go.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wrote somewhere else recently that it would take a stimulus of about $1.2 trillion a year for 2 years with a 90/10 split between spending and tax cuts to create some 13.8 million jobs which I calculated would be needed by the beginning of 2011.  My main assumptions were that only 2 million more jobs would be lost this year and I made no assumptions at all about job losses in 2010.  My excuse for this was that I wasn&#39;t sure what the Obama Administration would do between now and then.  It probably won&#39;t do much but worsening conditions (and poll numbers) could at some point force Obama&#39;s hand.  </p>
<p>Again this is something of a theoretical exercise since we are already 6 months into the 2 year timeframe.  </p>
<p>Now while $1.2 trillion in stimulus spending is a lot of money and it really needs to continue into 2011 and beyond, it is far less than the last figure of $6.788 trillion given in the last 10 months by the Fed and government to bailout the financial system. </p>
<p>Initially funds could be used to support state and municipal budgets as well as education and some infrastructure projects.  But as I have been advocating for a while now and other commenters have said here, the country needs a policy to re-industrialize in a sustainable, less carbon and energy utilizing way.  It is of the utmost importance that stimulus be used to take us somewhere we want and need to go.</p>
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		<title>By: Ether_Snake</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50361</link>
		<dc:creator>Ether_Snake</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 05:08:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50361</guid>
		<description>If the debt-fueled economy is restarted, it won&#039;t even last more than five years before it crashes harder than it did this time.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Fool me once. Shame on you.&lt;br /&gt;Fool me twice... can&#039;t get fooled again!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the debt-fueled economy is restarted, it won&#39;t even last more than five years before it crashes harder than it did this time.</p>
<p>Fool me once. Shame on you.<br />Fool me twice&#8230; can&#39;t get fooled again!</p>
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		<title>By: Davos</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50359</link>
		<dc:creator>Davos</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 04:05:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50359</guid>
		<description>Lets start talking about the 2-5 trillion DEFICIT that will destroy what is still standing of the economy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lets start talking about the 2-5 trillion DEFICIT that will destroy what is still standing of the economy.</p>
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		<title>By: CEO</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50358</link>
		<dc:creator>CEO</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:37:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50358</guid>
		<description>That 306 to 1 ratio of Wall Street to Main Street subsidy as a powerful sign that our system is broken. It is gard to find any form of consensus in our pluralistic society, but we can almost be sure that the vast majority of people in america today believes that the tie between wall-street and politicians in particular, and between oligarchs and politicians in general, must somehow be untangled for the country to move forward. And then one could address the various main isues facing us - healthcare reform, education, consumption vs production, jobs, environment. Until the day politicians are forced to stop taking contribution from businesses and wall street, america would be trapped in an endless spiral of patching our problems with band-aid and contradictions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That 306 to 1 ratio of Wall Street to Main Street subsidy as a powerful sign that our system is broken. It is gard to find any form of consensus in our pluralistic society, but we can almost be sure that the vast majority of people in america today believes that the tie between wall-street and politicians in particular, and between oligarchs and politicians in general, must somehow be untangled for the country to move forward. And then one could address the various main isues facing us &#8211; healthcare reform, education, consumption vs production, jobs, environment. Until the day politicians are forced to stop taking contribution from businesses and wall street, america would be trapped in an endless spiral of patching our problems with band-aid and contradictions.</p>
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		<title>By: Avl Guy</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50357</link>
		<dc:creator>Avl Guy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 03:35:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50357</guid>
		<description>Unrelenting Debt Unwind is setting the stage for us to decipher the outlines of a &#039;new&#039; financially sustainable and environmentally-sound economy.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It’s not pure happenstance that this recession has bested the 1973-75 recession in depth. It’s generally accepted that the three recessions between 1973-1982 were part of a larger Structural Economic Transformation that involved shifting the GDP of a (then) 200 million-person nation that, pre-1973, possessed a sturdy and proven manufacturing base and talented workforce that could operate on a Pay-As-You-Go basis without depending on using excessive amounts of household debt to buy groceries, clothing and to secure medical care; that could save 8% of their earnings; and which could put 20% down on a car and on a house. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;By 1982 when the recent (and now deceased) 25-yr Bull market in stocks began, the structural shift in the economy was about completed. Most of those mfg workers had been kicked to the curb &amp; the nation’s mfg base kicked overseas. A huge nation then began the unwise ‘experiment’ of coupling wages &amp; salaries to the undertow forces of globalization, while attempting to be a Service Economy of Knowledge Workers. And also attempting to be a nation with a GDP 70% driven by debt-enabled &#039;Consumer Spending&#039;. This GDP model required households to incur more debt each succeeding year to make the household budget ‘work’, culminating in the unwisely ‘vaunted’ Creative Class that were simply glorified Walking Junk Bonds using debt to buy lofts and to patronize wine bars and urban art galleries; all enabled by excessive household debt leverage. This Creative Class were certainly nothing to be admired exalted or emulated.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So here we are in 2009, the unwise experiment of a GDP 70% driven by Debt-Enabled Consumer Spending has ended for this ponderous nation of 300+ million persons.&lt;br /&gt;Debt Unwind is irrepressible and is using deflation and recession to force an Involuntary Structural Economic Transformation upon us.&lt;br /&gt;Unlike last time, our white-collar Economists, academics and leaders are slow - perhaps loathed - to admit we’re in a structural change with no ‘Recovery’ back to some comforting  ‘normalcy’ of a GDP 70% driven by spending..&lt;br /&gt;There will be no ‘L’-shaped ‘Recovery’…only more of this ‘L’-shaped DESCENT until Debt Unwind deposits us somewhere on an economic landscape akin to the bumpy floor of a crater.&lt;br /&gt;Then the groping begins.&lt;br /&gt;We can stupidly try and re-animate the debt-fueled consumer spending model (this is the path chosen by Obama, Bush, Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke, Greenspan, et al).&lt;br /&gt;Or we can pursue a frugal Pay-As-You-Go model, and a Local Production and Local Service Delivery economic model where we make that which we consume and keep wages &amp; prices for goods &amp; services in a sustainable equilibrium with nil usage of debt leveraging...ala life pre-1973.  &lt;br /&gt;For the latter, we must LEAD our Leaders.  &lt;br /&gt;Obama is too beholden to banks &amp; Wall Street &amp; Harvard ‘Blue Chips’, and to advisors like Summers &amp; Geithner, a Goldman-Sachs lackey, to grasp any of this on his own.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unrelenting Debt Unwind is setting the stage for us to decipher the outlines of a &#39;new&#39; financially sustainable and environmentally-sound economy.</p>
<p>It’s not pure happenstance that this recession has bested the 1973-75 recession in depth. It’s generally accepted that the three recessions between 1973-1982 were part of a larger Structural Economic Transformation that involved shifting the GDP of a (then) 200 million-person nation that, pre-1973, possessed a sturdy and proven manufacturing base and talented workforce that could operate on a Pay-As-You-Go basis without depending on using excessive amounts of household debt to buy groceries, clothing and to secure medical care; that could save 8% of their earnings; and which could put 20% down on a car and on a house. </p>
<p>By 1982 when the recent (and now deceased) 25-yr Bull market in stocks began, the structural shift in the economy was about completed. Most of those mfg workers had been kicked to the curb &amp; the nation’s mfg base kicked overseas. A huge nation then began the unwise ‘experiment’ of coupling wages &amp; salaries to the undertow forces of globalization, while attempting to be a Service Economy of Knowledge Workers. And also attempting to be a nation with a GDP 70% driven by debt-enabled &#39;Consumer Spending&#39;. This GDP model required households to incur more debt each succeeding year to make the household budget ‘work’, culminating in the unwisely ‘vaunted’ Creative Class that were simply glorified Walking Junk Bonds using debt to buy lofts and to patronize wine bars and urban art galleries; all enabled by excessive household debt leverage. This Creative Class were certainly nothing to be admired exalted or emulated.</p>
<p>So here we are in 2009, the unwise experiment of a GDP 70% driven by Debt-Enabled Consumer Spending has ended for this ponderous nation of 300+ million persons.<br />Debt Unwind is irrepressible and is using deflation and recession to force an Involuntary Structural Economic Transformation upon us.<br />Unlike last time, our white-collar Economists, academics and leaders are slow &#8211; perhaps loathed &#8211; to admit we’re in a structural change with no ‘Recovery’ back to some comforting  ‘normalcy’ of a GDP 70% driven by spending..<br />There will be no ‘L’-shaped ‘Recovery’…only more of this ‘L’-shaped DESCENT until Debt Unwind deposits us somewhere on an economic landscape akin to the bumpy floor of a crater.<br />Then the groping begins.<br />We can stupidly try and re-animate the debt-fueled consumer spending model (this is the path chosen by Obama, Bush, Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke, Greenspan, et al).<br />Or we can pursue a frugal Pay-As-You-Go model, and a Local Production and Local Service Delivery economic model where we make that which we consume and keep wages &amp; prices for goods &amp; services in a sustainable equilibrium with nil usage of debt leveraging&#8230;ala life pre-1973.  <br />For the latter, we must LEAD our Leaders.  <br />Obama is too beholden to banks &amp; Wall Street &amp; Harvard ‘Blue Chips’, and to advisors like Summers &amp; Geithner, a Goldman-Sachs lackey, to grasp any of this on his own.</p>
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		<title>By: Francois</title>
		<link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery_12.html#comment-50356</link>
		<dc:creator>Francois</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:08:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/07/guest-post-there-will-be-no-recovery/#comment-50356</guid>
		<description>&quot;They provide powerful evidence that the federal government is not doing enough to help the &quot;real&quot; economy.&quot;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;That is the understatement of the year. Simple back-of-the-envelope calculation show that for every dollar spent for Main Street, the Federal Govermin et al. (Fed, Treasury etc.) spent 306 for Wall Street.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;With such an astonishing disparity, is it any wonder that the good times are rolling again on Wall Street while we get royally screwed?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;What is even more astonishing is that the pitchforks and torches haven&#039;t fly yet.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But it is only a mater of time: Obama has already sacrificed the 1st stimulus package at the altar of bipartisanship and discarded the need for a 2nd one.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;They provide powerful evidence that the federal government is not doing enough to help the &quot;real&quot; economy.&quot;</p>
<p>That is the understatement of the year. Simple back-of-the-envelope calculation show that for every dollar spent for Main Street, the Federal Govermin et al. (Fed, Treasury etc.) spent 306 for Wall Street.</p>
<p>With such an astonishing disparity, is it any wonder that the good times are rolling again on Wall Street while we get royally screwed?</p>
<p>What is even more astonishing is that the pitchforks and torches haven&#39;t fly yet.</p>
<p>But it is only a mater of time: Obama has already sacrificed the 1st stimulus package at the altar of bipartisanship and discarded the need for a 2nd one.</p>
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