Archive for July, 2010

Links 7/31/10

Major jet lag attack….a face plant is in order.

Chernobyl zone shows decline in biodiversity BBC

Reality TV, cosmetic surgery linked, researcher says PhysOrg

The We-Could-Go-Either-Way-On-Defamation League Weighs In FireDogLake

BP Defines Deviancy Down Columbia Journalism Review

Anatomy of Lehman’s Failure, and the Importance of Liquidity Requirements Economics of Contempt (hat tip Richard Smith and Don B)

Lunch with the FT: Alan Greenspan Alan Beattie. The former Maestro’s defense is that he was only 30% wrong and that the crisis was a very rare event.

Sites Feed Personal Details To New Tracking Industry Wall Street Journal

Trucking Industry Says Economy Is Slowing Clusterstock

FDIC gets into the securitization business MarketWatch. Note the anodyne announcement omits the nasty features highlighted by Richard Smith last week.

American Economy So Awful Parents Now Buying Franchises to Keep Adult Children Employed Helaine Olen

The Aftermath of the Global Housing Bubble Chokes the World Banking System. Only a Coordinated Loan Massacre Could Defeat a Japanese-Style Dead-and-Dying-of-Debt Kamikaze. Hell Approaches Us All, But Only For An Extended Period. Michael David White (hat tip Frank A). Despite unwieldy title, this is an instructive piece.

Antidote du jour:

Picture 3

Summer Rerun: Debunking the Notion that Unions Hurt Productivity

This post first appeared on June 23, 2007

A neat little analysis by Ross Eisenbrey at the Economic Policy Institute may be difficult for union foes to explain away. It shows the proportion of workers covered by collective bargaining agreements in major European countries and the US and then shows productivity growth country by country in the same group 1979-2005. Despite being the only nation in the bunch with low union representation, US productivity growth is merely middle-of-the-pack.

Now one can quibble slightly with Eisenbrey’s presentation. Rather than showing 2005 union representation, it would have been cleaner to show the average over the 1979-2005 period (for example, during this time frame, US union membership dropped from 27% to 12% today. It makes for a better comparison and in no way changes the outcome).

In fact, the dirty secret of this exercise is that, were GDP of the US computed on the same basis as in European countries included in this comparison, the US would almost certainly show lower productivity gains than any other nation in this group. The reason is that, in 1980, the US started adjusting its GDP figures to allow for the fact that computer and communications technology were becoming more powerful (i.e., even though buyers were paying less, they were getting considerably more utility). No other country makes these so-called adjustments, using a hedonic price index. And the cumulative distortion is massive. In 2005, economist/investment advisor Michael Shedlock contacted the Bureau of Economic Advisers and they supplied some dated information on hedonics (including a spreadsheet). He found that hedonic adjustment to GDP was 2.257 TRILLION dollars, or 22% of then-current GDP.

Productivity is output per unit of labor. To determine productivity of an entire economy, the numerator in the calculation is generally GDP. So if we are alone among our peers in having an inflated GDP, that says were it computed on a comparable basis, our lower GDP would also result in lower productivity growth. And since Shedlock’s work indicated that our GDP is wildly overstated, so too is our productivity growth.

Maybe more unions are just the thing we need……

From the Economic Policy Institute:

Unionization in the United States has declined since the late 1970s, when 27% of U.S. workers were covered by union contracts, to today, when only about 12% are covered. This has had substantial adverse effects on inequality, the wages of typical workers, and pension and health benefit coverage.

By contrast, most of the major continental European countries have maintained strong unions, and most of their employees are covered by collectively bargained contracts, ranging from 68% in Germany to over 90% in Belgium, France, and Sweden (see the first chart below).


There is a common myth that unions hurt productivity, supposedly because they impose work rules that make their employers less efficient. The evidence from industrial relations studies does not support this myth. A broad study of the economics literature found “a positive association [of unions on productivity] is established for the United States in general and for U.S. manufacturing” in particular (Doucouliagos and Laroche 2003, 1).1 And as the second chart below reveals, international comparisons suggest that high productivity and very high union density are entirely compatible.


The dramatic drop in unionization in the United States from 1979 to 2005 did not lead to faster productivity growth than in the seven largest European countries with union density greater than 60%. In fact, those countries’ average annual labor productivity growth of 1.7% equaled productivity growth in the United States. Output per hour worked is higher in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium,2 where more than 80% of employees have union contracts (compared to the United States’ 12% unionization).3

If Congress is concerned about protecting middle-class incomes, it should pass measures to facilitate union organizing and collective bargaining coverage, including the Employee Free Choice Act. There is no reason to fear that higher rates of unionization will impede efficiency or labor productivity.

Notes
1. Doucouliagos, Christos, and Patrice Laroche. “What do unions do to productivity? A meta-analysis.” Industrial Relations. Vol. 42, No. 4 (2003). Cited in Shaiken, Harley, “Unions, the Economy, and Employee Free Choice,” Economic Policy Institute (2007).
2. OECD estimates of labour productivity for 2005 (September 2006).
3. Mishel, Bernstein, and Allegretto, The State of Working America 2006/2007, Table 8.5, p.332, Economic Policy Institute 2007.

Should We Buy Fed’s Reports of Gains on AIG Bailout Vehicles?

Readers may recall that the Federal Reserve created three vehicles to hold dodgy assets it obtained via the Bear and AIG bailouts, namely Maiden Lane (for Bear), Maiden Lane II (for AIG residential mortgage backed securities) and Maiden Lane III (for CDOs the Fed bought as part of taking out AIG credit default swap counterparties at 100% of notional value).

The Fed yesterday reported gains on its exposures in these entities due to improved market conditions. Per the Financial Times:

The US public’s hope of getting repaid for the bail-outs of Bear Stearns and AIG in the financial crisis increased on Thursday after the Federal Reserve reported a paper profit for the first time on all the holdings of securities bought from the companies.

A rise in the value of the mortgage-related securities that caused Bear’s demise and AIG’s near-collapse enabled the Fed to report unrealised gains on all three vehicles it set up to hold assets from the two stricken financial groups.

Yves here. The question is how seriously do we take this report. The authorities havea a funny way of touting mark to market gains, even in bubbly markets, as a sign that All Is Well, then deriding the same MTM values as irrationally depressed when they don’t like the outcome.

Our Tom Adams, who has done extensive valuation work on Maiden Lane III, weights in on the latest report. Not surprisingly, the central bank bank does not provide enough information on its website to allow for quantitative analysis. Tom’s bottom line is that while he finds the change in value reported this quarter to be not entirely implausible, he finds the earlier valuation to be exaggerated. In other words, the percentage gains shown may be defensible, but they were applied to a base number that looks inflated.

From Tom Adams:

The latest report on the Fed’s website for the Maiden Lane III is as of 3/31/10. Overview information:

The original Fed loan was $24.339 billion, AIG’s equity contribution was $5 billion.

As of 12/31/09, the Fed loan had been amortized down to $18.5 billion. In the first quarter, there was another $1.229 billion of amortization, bringing the amortized Fed loan balance to $17.325 billion.

Against this, the Fed claims to have CDOs with a fair market value of $23.699 billion, as of 3/31/10, up 4% from 12/31 of $22.794 billion.

96.6% of the deals in the portfolio are rated BB+ or below, and we know that many of these are in the CCC category.

The Fed’s report continues to break out CDOs by year of origination, even though we know now that companies like TCW traded much of the older collateral out of those earlier CDOs and into new, much worse 06 and 07 MBS. So this categorization by year of CDO closing is meaningless as a credit quality indicator.

By fair market value, 65.1% of the CDOs are “high grade”, 8.9% are mezzanine, 23.3% are CMBS CDOs. Interestingly, $269 million of the portfolio is RMBS – presumably, this is from deals that were liquidated. Another $354 million is cash, which may also have come from liquidations which together with the RMBS equals about 2.6% of the portfolio.

We also know now that the high grade designation is meaningless because so much of the collateral in these deals was other CDOs (an inner CDO squared).

I believe it is not improbable that during the first quarter of this year, the trading value of some CDOs appreciated, given the optimism about the markets recovery. I will expect that the recoveries would be concentrated in the higher rated portions of the collateral underlying high grade deals and CMBS CDOs.

In fact, the change in fair market value for the high grades was 0.24% – basically flat.
The mezzanine CDO change in FMV was 5.48% – this seems improbable.
The CMBS change in FMV was 17.53%. This doesn’t seem too outrageous.
In total, the portfolio’s change in FMV was $905 million, of which $823 million was from the CMBS CDOs.

In general, I thought that the CMBS CDOs were not in as bad a shape as originally treated. In fact, they had much of their posted collateral backed out via the Maiden Lane exchange. These were the late additions from Deutsche Bank. As a result, in concept, I don’t seem it as unreasonable that these have recovered a bit.

However, the problem I have is with the valuation of the high grade deals, prior to the 12/31/09. while they didn’t show much change during the quarter, they appear to be seriously inflated prior to this point, especially given their current rating status.

I would argue that this is the area where Blackrock and the Fed are taking the most liberties by continuing to maintain the illusion that they are high grade and that their year of origination matters, when we know that they are packed with worthless CDO bonds and newer vintage RMBS collateral.

Federal Government Covering Up Severity of Gulf Oil Spill?

It looks as if Team Obama has reverted to form. In a repeat of its perfromance post the financial crisis, it appears to believe that no problem cannot be solved by PR, which puts it in league with the perps. Hat tip Glenn Stehle:

Links 7/30/10

Andrew Bacevich, Giving Up On Victory, Not War Tom Englehart

Grantham: Everything You Need to Know About Global Warming in 5 Minutes Barry Ritholtz (hat tip reader Francois T)

Gulf of Mexico Has Long Been a Sink of Pollution New York Times. Mirabile dictu! The Times discovers that the Gulf has dead zones!

The CIA and WMDs: The Damning Evidence The New York Review of Books

How to Reconcile July’s Rising Markets with July’s Dismal Economic News Eugene Linden

Greek Government Invokes Emergency Powers To End Truck Strike MarketNews (hat tip reader Scott)

Wyly brothers charged over ‘undisclosed $550m’ Financial Times. If the claims presented are proven, this looks awfully clear cut. The Manhattan DA referred the case, against big Republican donors, to the SEC in 2005.

A New Spotlight on Japanese-Style Deflation Ed Harrison

IMF Says U.S. Financial System May Need $76 Billion in Capital Bloomberg. Um, the IMF talks about underwater CRE, where the $76 billion seems light relative to serious delinquencies ($700 billion, and a 10% loss severity seems pretty optimistic) and doesn’t touch second mortgages on residences, which is a $150 billion hole at the four biggest banks.

Japan Seems Tolerant as Yen Rises WSJ Market Blog. A continuing mystery…

Curbing Your Enthusiasm Paul Krugman. Gives Obama far more credit than he is due, but at least makes the case for Elizabeth Warren as head of the consumer financial services protection agency.

Antidote du jour:Picture 1

UK’s FSA to Restrain Pay of Hedge Fund and Investment Managers

Why oh why is it that the US media treats financial services compensation levels as a third rail issue? Rent extraction was the driver of the financial crisis, and the financial services sector made it clear in 2009, by paying itself record bonuses on the heels of being saved from certain death, that it had no intention of exercising any self restraint. The entire sector received massive explicit and back-door bailouts, from equity injections to fancy facilities to engineering a steep yield curve. The UK’s FSA, getting some cover from EU regulations that require curbs on industry compensations structures, is moving forward on the compensation front (by contrast, US pay czar Ken Feinberg’s efforts to shame a narcissistic industry was destined to be only a PR exercise).

The FSA’s efforts arguably fall short of what is needed. As we and others have noted, banks did not start running off cliffs en masse until the sovereign debt crisis of the late 1970s, one of the first misadventures of the deregulated era. And the savvy, high rolling parts of the industry did not exhibit this sort of costly behavior until investment banks had gone public and were working with other people’s money. As we discussed in ECONNED, partnerships provided for vastly better incentives. The most obvious inhibitor of reckless behavior was the unlimited liability (if the firms lost money, its partners were on the hook personally). But that wasn’t the only one. Partners typically had the vast majority of their wealth tied up in business, and they could withdraw it, only gradually, after they retired. This illiquidity produced a long-term perspective and conservatism about who was made partner. While it would be well nigh impossible to dial the clock back, measures that defer payout and increase individual liability are steps in the right direction.

Now some readers may argue that the FSA’s latest move, which expand the reach of its efforts to curb out-of-line compensation to hedge funds and investment managers, is overreaching. But that perspective is too narrow. In a world of a government-backstopped financial sector, combined with tightly coupled financial firms and markets, any firm close enough to the financial water mains can do damage. Pre-crisis, anyone who forecast that safety nets would be extended to money market funds, investment banks, and a big insurer, or that the CDS market would effectively be backstopped would have been deemed utterly daft.

The problem, ultimately, is that there is no neat cordon sanitarie between the firms enjoying explicit or presumed government support (anyone with an operating brain cell knows Goldman, for instance, will not be allowed to fail) and their counterparties. That was the lesson of the LTCM near-death in 1998, yet no effective measures were put in place then. And the fact that backstopped firms channel funds to non-backstopped firms and thus support risk-taking in less regulated parts of the system is a long-recognized problem. The most radical and effective measure is narrow banking, or restricting depositaries to investing in only very safe assets, first proposed by Irving Fisher and others during the Great Depression.

Put more simply, who benefits from the leverage provided by the backstopped financial firms? At a minimum, any market participant that uses leverage provided off exchanges (which means explicit borrowings, such as through prime brokers, say via repo, and by using OTC instruments that allow for leveraged exposure, such as options). And before readers start caviling that XYZ Fund doesn’t work that way and is being included unfairly, consider: every investor in risky assets is enjoying profits that are higher than they would otherwise be thanks to central bank (so far at best partly effective) efforts at pump-priming. That’s a de facto subsidy. All these restraints are achieving is at best partial blunting of corporate welfare programs.

From the Financial Times:

The Financial Services Authority, which has sought to set the global standard on responsible pay practices, is broadening the scope of its remuneration code from 27 large banks to more than 2,500 financial services companies, including the UK branches of many overseas businesses…..

The US, Switzerland and much of Asia have signed up to global principles linking pay to risk but their rules have been less onerous…

But the FSA’s interpretation of the EU law holds some comfort for the industry. That directive requires companies to defer 40 to 60 per cent of bonuses for three years or longer and does not specify who is covered.

As adopted by the FSA, the pay rules apply to senior managers and employees whose activities may have a “material impact” on the company’s risk profile. The higher 60 per cent deferral rate applies to bonuses over £500,000 (€596,000, $780,000).

The FSA also rejected an interpretation of the law being put forward by members of the European parliament that would have limited upfront cash to 20 per cent of the total package – the strictest rule of its kind in the world.

Instead the FSA’s revised code says that at least 50 per cent of the total package must be paid in shares or share-linked instruments.

Update 3:30 AM: Philip Stevens’ comment is germane:

Political resolve has given way to fear. No one waxed more eloquently than Mr Sarkozy about the iniquities of liberal markets. This was the moment, the French president told us, when capitalism would be remade in the image of the European social market. All this, though, was before the Greek sovereign debt crisis saw the eurozone under siege. Now Mr Sarkozy lies awake each night worrying that France might lose its triple A credit rating.

He is not alone. As they struggle to reduce huge budget deficits, western politicians almost everywhere are in thrall to global capital markets. David Cameron has made no bones about it – Britain’s prime minister says he is slashing spending on the welfare state and paring back the nation’s global role because the Bank of England has told him that the rating agencies would be satisfied with nothing less.

The rating agencies – remember them? Some may recall that these very same organisations were deeply complicit in the chicanery that saw worthless debt instruments repackaged as top-notch financial securities. I am sure I heard the politicians say they would be cut down to size. It never happened. The rating agencies never repented; and now they are masters again….

Financial institutions are still extracting large profits from trading activities described by Lord Turner, the head of Britain’s Financial Services Authority, as inherently useless. Lord Turner, however, has been almost a lone voice in suggesting a fundamental rethink.

The crisis in the eurozone shows how the herd instincts of capital markets can destabilise an entire continent. The consequence has been to push European governments into a premature, and risky, race to slash fiscal deficits before economic recovery is assured.

With a little help from the regulators, the big banks can now declare themselves duly stress-tested, but the systemic instabilities remain. International markets have moved far ahead of the capacity of political leaders to understand, let alone properly oversee them. This failure of political governance to keep pace with global economic integration is as apparent now as it was in 2007.

Even if politicians better recognise the risks of interdependence and the vulnerabilities of particular institutions and financial instruments, they are far from any consensus on how to share responsibility for global oversight. So, three years on, things are much as they were – except that most of us are poorer. The markets rule. OK?

Yves again. It’s worse than that. Not only are the non-banksters poorer, but the perps now have mechanisms in place to assure that the next round of looting will go more smoothly.

The Wages of Sin: Former Citi Execs Pay Token Fines for Lying to Investors

A news story today provides further confirmation of the rule by the banking classes in the US, with only token gestures to the rule of law. Per Bloomberg (hat tip Tom Adams), Citigroup is ponying up $75 million to settle SEC charges that the giant bank was not sufficiently forthcoming in the runup to the financial crisis about losses on billions of dollars of subprime exposures:

The company made misstatements on earnings calls and in financial filings in 2007 about assets tied to subprime loans, the Securities and Exchange Commission said in a federal lawsuit yesterday in Washington. Some disclosures omitted more than $40 billion in investments, it said. Citigroup’s former chief financial officer and head of investor relations agreed to pay a total of $180,000 for failing to disclose the risk….

Citigroup executives publicly stated four times in 2007 that the New York-based bank had reduced its exposure to subprime mortgage securities by 45 percent to $13 billion, as investors and analysts clamored for information about the deteriorating market.

The Financial Times provides additional detail:

The SEC said Citi stated four times in July and October 2007 that it had reduced its subprime exposure from $24bn to $13bn at the end of 2006. Yet the bank failed to inform investors until November 2007 that it held more than $40bn in “super senior” tranches of CDOs backed by subprime mortgages and related instruments called “liquidity puts”, the SEC claimed.

Yves here. I guess I am a bit thick. In 2007, subrpime exposure was the thing investors were most worried about. Recall that the first acute phase of the financial was in August-September 2007, when the asset backed commercial paper started contracting and money market investors shunned funds that had any taint of subprime.

Recall also that Sarbanes Oxley, passed in 2002, provides that a public company’s principal executive and principal financial officers certify both annual and quarterly financial statements for accuracy and completeness. Section 906 further

contains a certification requirement subject to specific federal criminal provisions and that is separate and distinct from the certification requirement mandated by Section 302.

So….what do we have here? A $75 million fine, imposed on the company…and so coming out of Citi’s coffers, which comes (in theory) from shareholders (but given that financial firms pay high percentages of revenues in bonuses, this fine would have a microscopic impact on pay levels).

More striking is the mere slap on the wrist of the execs involved. The former Citi chief financial officer, Gary Crittenden, who held the job from March 2007 to March 2009, will pay $100,000 of the total $180,000, with Arthur Tildesley, then in charge of investor relations, agreeing to cough up $80,000 to settle charges.

To give you a sense of proportion, Crittenden was Citigroup’s second highest paid officer. From Citigroup’s 2009 proxy:

Picture 23

He also sits on 8 boards. Do the math: this settlement is a mere inconvenience. And note, more important, the failure of the SEC to pursue Chuck Prince (in charge through November 2007). If investors weren’t finding the answers to vital questions in the bank’s financial statements, one could argue the written disclosures weren’t adequate either (it appears the SEC wasn’t willing to pursue this angle).

And Citi virtually thumbed its nose at the charges in its statement:

Mr. Tildesley is a highly valued employee of Citi and is making significant contributions to the company.

As Tom Adams noted:

When people talk about banksters this is what they mean – lying with impunity is not only not problematic, it is critical to career advancement and company “success”.

The message seems pretty clear. Sarbox was intended to curtail phony corporate accounting in the wake of Enron. But why resort to complicated transactions like the energy company’s famed Raptors when Citi shows that mere lying will produce the same results with much less fuss?

Summer Vacation Report

Your humble blogger is back and very much behind the eight ball (relative still in town, a missed flight followed by cancellation of the rebooked departure, which means I have competing demands on top of more acute phase of my chronic behind-the-eight-ballness). So while I will endeavor to provide roughly the normal number of daily posts, they may be comparatively light in terms of my commentary until I am a tad more caught up.

I do want to thank Richard Smith, who did a great deal of heavy lifting, as well as Ed Harrison, John Bougearel, Bob G, and faithful regulars Francois T, Scott, MA, RebelEconomist, and dd.

Random observations from northern Europe:

Copenhagen looks like it would be a very nice place to live (I dimly recall it showing up in past years as the top rated city for expats) and has a very impressive number of museums (took a jet lagged gander through the Glyptotek).

Visby (where Ingmar Bergman lived) was fun, has easy access to Stockholm (cheap flight, and even cheaper and supposedly very nice ferry). Where else can you go on a truffle safari?

Tallinn is a sleeper, a handsome city with a fair bit of medieval architecture intact.

I consider myself a jaded tourist, but the Hermitage really is impressive, not just the famed depth of its art collection, but the palace complex itself as an art object and deliberate statement of wealth and power. The inordinate scope and display of the Winter Palace alone goes a long way towards explaining the Bolshevik Revolution.

Links 7/29/10

This is my last links post at Naked Capitalism. I want to thank you all for being patient and open-minded over the past two weeks. It is always a pleasure to read your comments as they are an integral part of the experience on Yves’ site. I also appreciate the links and Antidotes you have sent.

A big thanks has to go to Richard for running things in Yves’ absence. I enjoyed his posts as well as the "blast from the past" posts we all had a chance to read.  The last one he posted on Belgium is certainly interesting. Here’s a country who’s government is a user of currency with a relatively high budget deficit and a 100% debt-to-GDP ratio. It also has a weak government and ethnic tensions. No one really seems to be watching this picture. I think it bears watching. Here’s my take from a few months ago.

Comments appreciated.

Topic of the Day: Pace of Recovery

The recovery seems slowest in Greece and the bubble countries (US, UK, Ireland, Spain). It’s pretty poor in Eastern Europe too. It is better in the rest of Western Europe. A good deal better in Australia and Canada (not sure about NZ). China, India and Brazil are even tightening. Other countries too. If you are thinking double dip, where are the vulnerabilities globally? I see housing, commercial real estate and state and local governments in the US. Housing and banking in the UK, Spain and Ireland and austerity in the UK. And there are always trade tensions.

Bernanke must end era of ultra-low rates Raghuram Rajan, FT

Euro zone economic sentiment rises to 28-month high Reuters

Baltic Dry Index Up 11% In A Matter Of Days, But Nobody Cares Anymore Joe Weisenthal

Whisky Bet Pits Rosenberg Against Faber on 10-Year U.S. Yield: Tom Keene Bloomberg

Subbarao’s Accelerated Rate Increases Leave India Inflation Eroding Income Bloomberg

California ‘fiscal emergency’ declared BBC News (Hat tip Bob)

Foreclosures Rise in Three-Fourths of U.S. Cities in 2010 Housing Wire

 

Other Links

RAB Capital’s Marshall Auerback on the CBO’s Report New Economic Perspectives. (I posted this one on CW’s Facebook page saying "Marshall Auerback gives the MMT approach to the fiscal situation. Britain is a good historical reference. Note, in watching this, that the UK’s deficits were inflated away over time via currency depreciation and higher inflation.")

Marc Faber: Sit Still, This Is Going to Hurt Motley Fool

BP Fights U.S. Government, Oil-Spill Victims Over Venue for Gulf Lawsuit Bloomberg

IMF Approves $15.2 Billion Loan to Ukraine After Fiscal Adjustment Pledge Bloomberg

The New Kindle: Smaller, Faster, Cheaper Mashable

Zahlen für Juli: Arbeitslosenzahl sinkt um 20.000 FTD

NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record Menzie Chinn

No More Apologies — It’s Time to Stand Up for Our Convictions Howard Dean, HuffPo

Plankton decline across oceans as waters warm BBC News (Hat tip Scott A)

Closing the Gap: How Desire Affects Perceptions of Distance Scientific American

Judge blocks key parts of Arizona immigration law WaPo

Oil causes 2,200 Gulf beach closings, warnings AP

Couple, aged 87 and 97, marry in north London care home BBC News (this is a great feel-good story)

The Last Nazi Trial?: Former Death Camp Guard Indicted Der Spiegel

1977 Murder Revisited: Former RAF Terrorist to Stand Trial Der Spiegel

Russia Weighs Sale of Stakes in State Companies NYTimes

Analysis: Wall Street loathing for Warren lifts regulator bid Reuters

David Cameron launches Indian trade drive BBC News

Antidote du Jour: King Vulture (Thanks MarcoPolo)

The King Vulture, Sarcoramphus papa, is a large bird found in Central and South America… King Vultures were popular figures in the Mayan codices as well as in local folklore and medicine. Though currently listed as Least Concern by the IUCN, they are decreasing in number, due primarily to habitat loss.

king_vulture

Normal service is resumed

Probably one more set of links to come from Ed, but I think that’s it from me. Unless Yves has once again  succumbed to the lure of Water Eaton, on the way back home to the States.

Special thanks to Ed, Tom, John Bougearel, Francois T, Bob G, Mike G, Scott F, MA, anonymous, dd,  RebelEconomist and (defying bandwidth constraints) YS, for helping focus my thoughts, or providing posts or post ideas. Special apologies to anyone I should have mentioned above – it’s been a whirl.

Thanks to the rest of you for patience, encouragement, links and comments; or just for reading and thinking.

Richard

The Belgian mess

One more guest post to come, plus a farewell; I had more of my own in mind, but I’ve overrun, again. It’s certainly been demanding, or stretching, and a sharp reminder of what I do and don’t know well, and can and can’t do well; but it was also enjoyable to blether away at you all. And I will half-miss the morning’s bleary thrash through 116 RSS feeds and whatever articles had eyecatching headlines, and nearly all of the NC comments. I haven’t done anything very like that since a not-terribly-successful stint at James Capel Gilts, 20-odd years ago; I doubt whether I have improved all that much at it in the mean time, either.

Anyway, Belgium.

In all the hubbub around Eurobank liquidity or solvency or whatever you thought it was, triggered by doubts about the ability of Greece and Spain to fund themselves, and possible sovereign defaults, one country, right at the heart of the EU, with a nasty problem, got largely overlooked. But not entirely: Tracy “Argus” Alloway of FT Alphaville managed to keep one of her innumerable beady eyes fixed firmly on Belgium.

The two main horrors are budget (FT AV quoting research house Independent Strategy):

Belgium is a mess. Its sovereign debt to GDP is 100%, up from a trough of 84% a few years ago, and its budget deficit is 5% of GDP.

but most of all political risk:

Unlike the Greeks, who seem to like being Greeks and being in Greece, Belgium is a country with a dearth of nationals proud to be Belgian and where growing swathes of the population want to be in another state of their own creation. This is not a good scenario for taking tough decisions on public debt at a national level and making the necessary political compromises…

Since May, when this article appeared, Belgium has exchanged a crippled coalition government for a crippled caretaker government, which isn’t progress; and the now-largest Flemish party, the New Flemish Alliance, is openly, though unhurriedly, secessionist. There are seven parties still negotiating to form a government, six weeks after the elections.

Nor, of course, has it made any difference to the underlying ethnic divide, which is spectacular. Belgium is pretty much two countries already, apart from Brussels itself, where French (Walloon, southern part) and Dutch (Flemish, northern part) speaking populations do mix, though Brussels is an enclave within the Flemish part, just to make things a bit more complicated. Away from Brussels, local governments in both Wallonia and Flanders can pass laws prohibiting the use of the minority language, and they do. Not much sign of common national feeling there.

The new pressure on this rickety political entity now arrives in the form of a leak from the Belgian independent budget watchdog. From the FT:

The solidity of Belgium’s public finances was called into question on Tuesday after an independent budget watchdog challenged the government’s tax revenue forecasts and warned of higher budget deficits.

The leaked report from the federal government’s monitoring committee raises questions as to whether Belgium can meet commitments to bring its public finances in line with eurozone budget rules.

Cue, naturally enough, both despair about the institutional capacity to meet the budget commitments:

“In normal times, taking such measures might be straightforward,” said Philippe Ledent, economist at ING Belgium. “The problem now is that there is no government that can take them.”

and a likely sharpening of the ethnic divide:

The way in which public spending could be cut dominated the electoral campaign in Dutch-speaking Flanders, with a consensus for more belt-tightening seen across most of the political spectrum. But the issue hardly featured in Francophone Wallonia, where the victorious Socialist party has vowed to oppose any form of budget austerity.

It’s ironic that having waved Belgium into the Euro, based on its centrality to Europe, one of the original Six, integral with Benelux, and so on, the pols could hardly reject Greece et al for budget dodginess (h/t MA for this reminder). Now it’s all coming back to Belgium.

So where do we go from here? The issue will get right onto the market’s radar eventually; and it looks much less short-term tractable than the Greek or Spanish situations. If there is to be a divorce, there will be a good tussle over the ownership of the assets first; or rather, over that 100%-of-GDP debt.

For much, much more on how Belgium got to be like that, on the mean and very long-term ethnic grudge match going on behind the scenes, and on what might happen next, try this from Bedlam (hat tip: Scott F.).

Update: But the Bedlam piece gets the identity of the largest Flemish party wrong (it’s the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, not Vlaams Belang) and NATO is staying in Brussels.

Top excerpt:

There is a growing risk of a faster than expected dissolution of Belgium which will result in sovereign default; this is based on a belief in the inability of the individual nations within the euro zone, let alone the EU institutions themselves, to realise that as nations unravel, speed is of the essence.

Drag duo, no, trio

By John Bougearel, author of Riding the Storm Out and Director of Financial and Equity Research for Structural Logic

Fiscal drags combine with manufacturing drags in 2011 ~ these drags will subtract 2.5% from GDP in 2011

The manufacturing sector has pancaked in June and July after giving roughly a 1% boost to GDP over the last 4 quarters. Moody’s says we can expect to subtract that 1% mfg boost to the economy in 2011. “It’s becoming increasingly clear that the biggest lift from the inventory cycle is over. The inventory swing added nearly a percentage point to real GDP growth over the past year and is unlikely to add anything during the coming year. This will weigh on manufacturing output over the next several months.”

David Rosenberg adds that there will be a 1.5% fiscal drag in 2011, and reminds us of a third potential drag on the economy in 2011, the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. Bernanke floated a trial balloon to lawmakers suggesting they extend the Bush tax cuts last week, so we can expect the looming tax cut drag will disappear.  From Rosenberg: “we have at least 1.5 percentage points of fiscal drag coming out way next year so it will be interesting to see what it is that ends up preventing the U.S. economy from contracting.” Rosenberg warns that in two out of the three other aggressive tax hikes since WWII, the economy experienced hard landings. I do think lawmakers will extend the tax cuts because of the fragility, and ‘unusually uncertain’ outlook, but if not, there is a third drag. Final Q1 2010 GDP came in at 2.7%. Adv-GDP for Q2 2010 is estimated to come in at 2.5%. All told the first half of 2010 is growing at best at 2.5%. With the fiscal and mfg drags subtracting 2.5% from GDP growth in 2011, what will be there in 2011 to move the economy forward?

The takeaway is that without real and substantial job growth in the private sector, without growth in the mfg base, without gov’t stimulus, 2011 is poised to sputter. Oh, the SP500 can be expected to climb a wall of worry into Q1 2011 targeting 1313, but then what, another bear mkt? “I reckon so”, said the outlaw Josie Wales.  We should all enjoy the next stock market rally, but also remember to heed Rosenberg’s long-standing advice, these stock market rallies are to be ‘rented’ in secular bear mkts, and we are still in a secular bear mkt.

The Yen Carry Trade to buy US Treasuries in Q2 2010 is beginning to soften and can be expected to be unwound after the August 6 NFP or after the August 13 Retail Sales report. I don’t think we will see the Yen carry trade resume until 2011, when the anticipated drags on the US economy become reality.

Meanwhile, the overcrowded long gold trade continues to be unwound and is expected to persist into the first half of August, perhaps longer. Gold’s strongest correlation right now is the US Dollar. The dollar has been plunging along with treasury yields in Q2 and Q3 largely on the plunging US economic data in June and July. The dollar won’t really strengthen against the Yen until the carry trade unwind gets underway and that won’t happen until the summer doldrums data in the US bottoms. We won’t see a bottoming in most of the data until mid-August.

You can see on the gold chart below that gold reluctantly followed the dollar on a southbound trek at the end of the first half of 2010. Everyone wanted to hold the glittering gold in their portfolios until the first half of the year came to a close because it, along with treasuries were the best investments in the 1st half of 2010. Gold not so much so anymore! Another 6% lower and it will round-trip to unchanged on the year again. Equities just round tripped to unchanged on the year from way ‘down-under’ as they say in Australia this past week. Intriguingly, the 2009 yr close in Gold and the SP500 are both quite near 1100, they are sort of behaving like two ships passing in the night…..

Gold 240 minute
Gold 240 minute

Summer Rerun: Is Thinking Going Out of Fashion?

This post first appeared on May 11, 2007

I am beginning to suspect that many are reacting to the overstimulation of the modern world – the accelerating pace of change, data overload, time pressure, work and relationship instability – by turning off their brains. The rise of fundamentalism and the “family values” push, both efforts to turn back the clock, is one set of responses.

Another is the rise of sound-biting, of using pithy communications to cut through the clutter of the daily information assault. But sound biting is inherently reductionist. It doesn’t permit nuanced argument, or pointing out fuzziness in data, or shades of grey. Sound bites are great for simple, emotional appeals, lousy for policy development (which is one reason why this country seems incapable of having an intelligent discussion on important topics like health care. The public has been trained out of having a long enough attention span to listen to alternatives).

Sound biting polarizes people, and makes it hard to find common ground (where can Bush go with Iran now that he has called them a member of the “axis of evil,” for instance?).

So I get worried when I see smart people embracing the logic of sound biting and seeing it as a more general prescription, particularly when they want to use it to run organizations, as opposed to sell shampoo or wars. Let’s look at this post by Brayden King at orgtheory.net:

Made to Stick is a book by Chip and Dan Heath that explores why some ideas grab our attention and others quickly fade from memory. The book has received a lot of attention in the consultant-y side of the blogosphere….

One of their main premises is that sticky ideas tend to be simple. By simple they don’t mean simplistic; rather they mean that each idea can be reduced to its essential, most important core. To communicate an idea clearly, you need to strip “an idea down to its most critical essence” (28). You need to “find the core.”

My immediate thought was that I need to do a better job in finding the core of some of my papers.* But “finding the core” also applies to organizations. Most organizations are based on some sort of core idea. They have an irreducible essence upon which the logic of the organizing, decision-making, and strategizing rests. Some organizations, of course, are better at communicating that core to their stakeholders. They’ve figured out how to make that idea central to decisions and to the daily life of the organization.

One example that the Heaths provide in the book is how Southwest Airlines used the idea that “We are THE low-fare airline” to guide important decisions. When Southwest has to decide whether they’re going to offer a new food item to be served on their flights, like chicken salad, they can go back to their core guiding principle to assess whether it would be a beneficial change. The answer is no. Providing chicken salad, as good as it might sound, does not fit with Southwest’s principle of being THE low-fare airline….

I think we need to develop better theories of decision-making in businesses and I think that the identity concept is a good place to start. Some theories of decision-making seem very weak in their ability to actually predict what kinds of decisions would be good for the organization (from the manager’s perspective). For example, the rather simplistic (not simple) idea that managers make decisions based on what they think will maximize shareholder value falls apart once you consider the hundreds of ways that a manager might try to maximize value at any given moment. Using the decision-making criterion of “our company maximizes value” is vacuous. Every business works under this principle, and so it gives the manager no guidance when attempting to make a decision that is unique to its organization. It begs more questions than it provides answers. Managers need more than a motive to maximize value….

The point of bringing up Heath and Heath and Whetten’s work on identity is that both readings seem to be saying the same thing. People or organizations need a core idea to motivate decision-making. We need a simple guiding principle. Whetten says that the core idea is the identity of the organization. If you can identify the central and distinctive character of the organization, you have found that which makes the organization unique from its peers. You know what works (the identity has at least gotten you this far), and you know what stakeholders expect (enough customers and employees like your identity to make the organization a worthwhile venture).

Thus, using the identity as a core principle to guide decision-making makes sense. When faced with a decision, managers put themselves in the place of the organization as if it were a real actor – what should an organization like this do? Sure, if you’re a business you assume that the end goal of any decision should be to maximize returns. But how you do it is contingent on the unique, core idea of the organization. As Whetten and Mackey (2002: 396) argue, identity is the “court of last resort.” When you reach that fork in the road, your identity pulls you down the eventual path.

Ooof. This all sounds great (particularly the bit debunking maximizing shareholder value) until you think about it a bit. Make It Stick argues that “simple ideas (when well expressed) are memorable.” Granted. It then goes on to see simple ideas as being virtuous. That is, if you can’t reduce your idea to simple idea, by implication, there is something wrong with it or with you.

No doubt writers should strive to be as clear as possible. But some of the most thought-provoking, and useful thing I have read (and they are very well written to boot) can’t be boiled down to a simple sentence or two because they are bigger than that.

For example, the best management book I have read in quite a while is Phil Rosenzweig’s The Halo Effect. It is a brilliant, important, yet accessible piece of work, it tells you that just about everything written about management is wrong, but it cannot be summarized in a sentence, or even two. Here is one reviewer’s stab at it:

Rosenzweig tells us that our beliefs about business success are largely, perhaps entirely, wrong, distorted by the halo effect — in this case, the idea that once we consider a company successful, we tend to see it as doing everything right.

That’s about as much as you can convey in one sentence, yet you are left wondering what the book is about, and it actually does take some explaining to grasp Rosenzweig’s thesis:

In World War I, psychologist Edward Thorndike asked commanding officers to rank their subordinates on a series of qualities. He found the answers to be highly correlated; in other words, the officers saw the soldiers in broad-brush positive or negative terms, as either all good or all bad….

To illustrate his point, Rosenzweig goes through case studies of Lego, Cisco, and ABB. For example, when its fortunes were rising, Cisco was praised for “extreme customer focus,” skill in acquisition and integration, and highly motivated employees. Yet when performance fell, critics saw many of these previously admirable attributes as causes of failure. Cisco’s problem wasn’t that it had ridden a bubble that collapsed — no, it had “a cavalier attitude toward customers.” Its deals had been haphazard, employees had been “too busy taking orders and cashing stock options to bother with efficiency, cost-cutting, or teamwork.” Academics joined the media in this reputational pump-and-dump. As the author explains: “No one was saying that Cisco had changed between 2000 and 2001. It was just that now, in retrospect, Cisco was described through a different lens — one of failing performance. . . . Placing these accounts together, the impression is nothing short of Orwellian — a rewriting of history that thrusts facts into the past, rearranging the record . . . reinterpreting the past to suit present needs.”

The implication is that books like In Search of Excellence and Good to Great are mere exercises in storytelling, because their main data sources, press reports and retrospective interviews, ar hopelessly tainted by the halo effect. And he goes on to prove analytically that their findings were incorrect.

Now Rosenzweig’s book has a very important message, but I challenge you to boil it down to even three sentences. As a consequence, (and Make It Stick is borne out here) it won’t have the impact it ought to. But by the Heaths’ logic, popularity is tantamount to merit. That just ain’t so. In fact, one could argue that one way to get ahead in a competitive world is to have an information advantage, and seek out more complicated constructs that are ignored in a dumbed-down world.

Let’s go on to their organizational argument, that companies should find a simple idea to guide all their decisions, which is even more dodgy. That premise holds if you have a strategy, like Southwest’s, that is distinctive and can be boiled down to a simple tag line.

I can too readily think of companies that have powerful cultures that are key to their success where no such tag line would or could exist. Let’s start with two: Goldman Sachs and Toyota. Each is unquestionably the dominant player in its arena. Each has a very strong culture. But if you were ask employees of either firm for a single principle, you wouldn’t get the simple actionable phrase that the Heaths idealize. At Goldman, they’d look at you like you were nuts. The firm has 14 guiding principles. Each is more than a sentence long. And the firm (at least historically) believes deeply in them and amazingly enough, operates from them.

A recent New York Times feature on Toyota describes a similar, multifaceted, yet cohesive culture. Toyota, unlike Goldman, does have an overarching ambition: “To enrich society through the building of cars and trucks.” That doesn’t provide the kind of decision guidance that the Heaths like, and the American writer has to explain what it means:

I lost count of how many times Toyota executives, during the course of my reporting, repeated it and how often I had to keep from recoiling at its hollow peculiarity. And yet, the catch phrase — to enrich and serve society — was not intended, at least originally, to function as a P.R. motto. Historically the idea has meant offering car customers reliability and mobility while investing profits in new plants, technologies and employees. It has also captured an obsessive obligation to build better cars, which reflects the Toyota belief in kaizen, or continuous improvement. Finally, the phrase carries with it the responsibility to plan for the long term — financially, technically, imaginatively. ”The company thinks in years and decades,” Michael Robinet, a vice president at CSM Worldwide, a consulting firm that focu

ses on the global auto industry, told me. ”They don’t think in months or quarters.”
The core mission is elucidated through other Toyota maxims, some of which make more sense to Westerners than others. And it also leads to behaviors that are alien to most companies. Toyota employees are obsessed with finding problems, be they with the cars, with marketing, with processes, because they see them as an opportunity for improvement. And to them, it is all part of “enriching and serving society by making cars and trucks.” But that message has all of the other ramifications because management has imbued that simple phrase with a great deal of meaning and many corollaries. The phrase is not what guides the culture. The phrase is much smaller than what it has come to mean at Toyota. The NYT author spent a long paragraph explicating it and still hadn’t distilled it.

The failing of the Heaths’ idea is due to another important construct, obliquity that isn’t summarized in a tag line. A Financial Times article explains:

If you want to go in one direction, the best route may involve going in the other. Paradoxical as it sounds, goals are more likely to be achieved when pursued indirectly. So the most profitable companies are not the most profit-oriented, and the happiest people are not those who make happiness their main aim. The name of this idea? Obliquity….

George W. Bush speaks mangled English rather than mangled French because James Wolfe captured Quebec in 1759 and made the British crown the dominant influence in Northern America. Eschewing obvious lines of attack, Wolfe’s men scaled the precipitous Heights of Abraham and took the city from the unprepared defenders. There are many such episodes in military history. The Germans defeated the Maginot Line by going round it, while Japanese invaders bicycled through the Malayan jungle to capture Singapore, whose guns faced out to sea. Oblique approaches are most effective in difficult terrain, or where outcomes depend on interactions with other people. Obliquity is the idea that goals are often best achieved when pursued indirectly.

Obliquity is characteristic of systems that are complex, imperfectly understood, and change their nature as we engage with them…..Obliquity is equally relevant to our businesses and our bodies, to the management of our lives and our national economies. We do not maximise shareholder value or the length of our lives, our happiness or the gross national product, for the simple but fundamental reason that we do not know how to and never will. No one will ever be buried with the epitaph “He maximised shareholder value”. Not just because it is a less than inspiring objective, but because even with hindsight there is no way of recognising whether the objective has been achieved…..

Most businesses operated in competitive environments far too complex for a terse phrase to be a useful guide to action. Yet a magic incantation, a talisman, a battle cry is terribly appealing. But those who can resist the temptation of relying on a simple playbook and face the complexity and uncertainty of their environment are likely to steer a better path. But understanding risk and adapting also demands far more courage that trusting simple ideas.

Guest Post: Equilibrium Analysis

Rajiv Sethi

In a recent post on his (consistently interesting) blog, David Murphy questions the value of equilibrium analysis in economics and finance, and points to two earlier posts of his in which the same point is made. Here he is in July 2007:

An interesting post on the Street Light Blog, on currency misalignments, suggests an interesting question: is economics an equilibrium discipline? The very idea of a misaligned FX rate suggests that the natural state is an aligned one: perhaps the fundamentals move faster than the markets adjust, so FX is never in equilibrium. Perhaps (in the language of statistical mechanics) the relaxation time is much longer than the average time between forcings.

And here, in August 2008:

My own view is that finance is not an equilibrium discipline, mostly, so while classical economics might work well in explaining the price of coffee… it does rather less well in asset allocation or explaining the return distribution of financial assets. Rather new news arrives faster than the market can restore equilibrium after the last perturbation, meaning that most of the time equilibrium is not a useful concept.

In a 1975 paper that remains worth reading to this day, James Tobin was explicit about the limitations of equilibrium analysis in understanding large scale economic fluctuations:

Keynes’s General Theory attempted to prove the existence of equilibrium with involuntary unemployment, and this pretension touched off a long theoretical controversy. A. C. Pigou, in particular, argued effectively that there could not be a long-run equilibrium with excess supply of labor. The predominant verdict of history is that, as a matter of pure theory, Keynes failed to prove his case.

Very likely Keynes chose the wrong battleground. Equilibrium analysis and comparative statics were the tools to which he naturally turned to express his ideas, but they were probably not the best tools for his purpose… The real issue is not the existence of a long-run static equilibrium with unemployment, but the possibility of protracted unemployment which the natural adjustments of a market economy remedy very slowly if at all. So what if, within the recherché rules of the contest, Keynes failed to establish an “underemployment equilibrium”? The phenomena he described are better regarded as disequilibrium dynamics.

Tobin then goes on to develop a dynamic disequilibrium model of the macroeconomy (discussed at length here) which has a unique equilibrium characterized by full employment, steady inflation, and correct expectations. He shows that even if this equilibrium is locally stable, so that small perturbations are self-correcting, it need not be globally stable: sufficiently large shocks to the economy can result in cumulative divergence away from equilibrium unless arrested by a significant policy response. This seems to describe what we have experienced over the past couple of years better than any equilibrium model of which I am aware.

Note that Tobin’s model is deterministic. The problem here is not that the economy is being buffeted by frequent shocks that arrive before a transition to equilibrium can occur, it is that the internal dynamics of adjustment simply do not approach the equilibrium from certain (large) sets of initial states even in the absence of shocks. The idea that the instability of steady growth with respect to disequilibrium dynamics is an important feature of modern market economies, and cannot be neglected in a comprehensive theory of economic fluctuations was forcefully advanced by Richard Goodwin as far back as 1951, and Paul Samuelson had explored the possibility even earlier. As Willem Buiter has recently lamented, this line of research in macroeconomics simply dried up about a generation ago.

Another area in which equilibrium analysis is likely to be inadequate is in the study of asset markets with significant speculative activity. Price and volume dynamics in such markets depend not just on changes in fundamentals but also on the distribution of trading strategies, and this in turn adjusts under pressure of differential performance. The idea of an equilibrium composition of trading strategies is a contradiction in terms: if there were any such thing there would be a new strategy that could enter to exploit the resulting regularity. It is the complexity of this disequilibrium process that allows information arbitrage efficiency to be approximately satisfied, while allowing for significant departures from fundamental valuation efficiency (the distinction, naturally, is also due to Tobin.)

Finally consider Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, built on the paradoxical idea that stability itself can be destabilizing. In Minsky’s framework stable expansions give rise to increasingly aggressive financial practices as those firms having the greatest maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities profit relative to their closest competitors. The resulting erosion in margins of safety increases financial fragility, interpreted as the likelihood that a major default will trigger a crisis of liquidity. Such a crisis eventually materializes, devastating precisely those firms whose actions gave rise to greater fragility. The balance of financial practices is then shifted in favor of increased prudence, and the stage is set for another period of stability. Trying to give this analysis an equilibrium interpretation is a futile exercise; expectations of financial market tranquility are self-falsifying, and no fixed distribution of financial practices can be stable.

Given the potential of disequilibrium dynamic models to illuminate our understanding of the economy, why are they generally neglected in contemporary economics? In part it is because the quality of a disequilibrium model is hard to evaluate and the dynamics are necessarily arbitrary to a degree. There is a professional consensus on how equilibrium analysis should be done, but none (so far) when it comes to disequilibrium analysis. Furthermore, equilibrium models can be enormously insightful, even in applications to macroeconomics and finance. The work of John Geanakoplos on the leverage cycle is a case in point, and Abreu and Brunnermeier’s paper on bubbles and crashes is another. I have used equilibrium methods frequently and will continue to do so. But it seems that there ought to be greater space in the profession for serious work on the dynamics of disequilibrium.

Links 7/28/10

Is this xenophobia?

Video – Jan Brewer: Most illegal immigrants are ‘drug mules’ CNN (Hat tip Glenn)

Bias and Bigotry in Academia Patrick Buchanan

Losing White America Patrick Buchanan

Long-Term Economic Pain for American Families Bob Herbert, NYTimes (this is why latent xenophobia has come to the surface in my view)

Xenophobia is the uncontrollable fear of foreigners. It comes from the Greek words ξένος (xenos), meaning “stranger,” “foreigner” and φόβος (phobos), meaning “fear.” Xenophobia can manifest itself in many ways involving the relations and perceptions of an ingroup towards an outgroup, including a fear of losing identity, suspicion of its activities, aggression, and desire to eliminate its presence to secure a presumed purity.

-Wikipedia

I would argue that latent xenophobia always comes to the surface during periods of economic insecurity. This is natural. So I certainly see the links above as manifestations of xenophobia. The question is whether policy remedies used to allay economic insecurities are appropriate. For example, Pat Buchanan makes a number of valid arguments in the article on academia. What should be done, then from a policy perspective?

My take: there is always going to be some measure of ‘xenophobia overreach’ in tough times. How much is the question. Discussing these divisive issues without a reptilian response is difficult but necessary to avoid particularly nasty cases of xenophobia overreach. I disagree with the ethos underlying Buchanan’s take on losing white America. But perception is reality and he does seem to be expressing views many voters have. What about addressing these concerns constructively instead of dismissing them out of hand?

Other Links

Baseler Ausschuss: Deutschland stimmt neuer Bankenregulierung nicht zu FAZ

Researchers link undersea oil plumes to BP spill LA Times

Watchdog questions Belgium’s finances FT (Hat tip Richard Smith)

Is Google Watching You? New Plugin Will Let You Know Mashable

The PBoC can’t easily raise interest rate Michael Pettis, Credit Writedowns

Old Spice Sales Double With YouTube Campaign Mashable

Anchoring Effect You Are Not So Smart (must read piece on irrational expectations)

The Real Sin of Michael Steele Patrick Buchanan (Buchanan is not NC’s usual fare but his foreign policy views are also important)

Elizabeth Warren and Her Discontents HuffPo

"Government as Deux Ex Machina"? Mark Thoma

How Preschool Changes the Brain Jonah Lehrer

Guest Blog: Of two minds: Listener brain patterns mirror those of the speaker Scientific American

Consumer demand ‘fuels faster Russian economic growth’ BBC News

Chinese Banks At Risk, Part 1 Patrick Chovanec (also see Richard’s recent post on this)

For Edwards, the Japanese lesson still holds… FT Alphaville

Bell council cuts salaries 90%; some will forgo pay LA Times

Niall Ferguson Debates Himself Matthew Yglesias

Fiscal policy: When does fiscal stimulus work? Ryan Avent

Too Cash-Strapped for a Boom: How Italy’s Permanent Crisis Saved It From the Downturn Der Spiegel

Thoughts on Academic Tenure Arnold Kling

Antidote du Jour: Great Hornbill (hat tip MarcoPolo)

Great-Hornbill

PS. – if you love birds, listen to the call of the Great Hornbill. Amazing stuff.