By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Trade
“The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis said on Friday that the volume of exports and imports of goods was 1.2% higher than in 2015, marking a slowdown from the 2% rate of growth recorded in the preceding year and the smallest rise since volumes crashed in 2009” [Wall Street Journal]. “However, there were signs exports and imports might be reviving, with volumes up 1.1% in the final three months of the year compared with the third quarter, almost double the rate of increase in the three months to September…. The sluggishness of trade in 2016 partly reflected broader weakness in the demand for goods, with developed economies recording their slowest expansion since 2013 and some large developing economies still contracting.”
Politics
2016 Post Mortem
SOTU
Trump quoted approvingly on infrastructure: “[TRUMP:] America has spent approximately $6 trillion in the Middle East, all the while our infrastructure at home is crumbling. With the $6 trillion, we could have rebuilt our country twice, and maybe even three times, if we had people who had the ability to negotiate. To launch our national rebuilding, I will be asking Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure of the United States, financed through both public and private capital, creating millions of new jobs. This effort will be guided by two core principles: Buy American and hire American” [Logistics Management]. Gosh, I didn’t see that underlined portion get a lot of press, did you? Once again, Trump says the unsayable; not that Blobs squirm in their seats; they can’t. Perhaps they undulate? Still, isn’t a trillion pretty measly, especially given that the spending will be spread out over several years? (To be fair, there’s probably enough pork in that trillion to help with 2018, and maybe that’s all they’re aiming for anyhow.) And can public-private partnerships really do the job? Very, very dubious. FDR certainly didn’t think so; nor did Eisenhower. And of course Trump says it’s about “the” — that is, his — “ability to negotiate.” Mere puffery! Then again, if you look at history instead of in Trump’s funhouse mirror version of it, Trump is, in a way, right: If the left learned to negotiate from a position of strength, more (at least) of the country would be be rebuilt. We know this because noisy Third Way blunderer Larry Summers suppressed out Christina Romer’s high estimate for Obama’s stimulus package in 2009, replacing it with a “politically feasible” and much lower number.
More on infrastructure: “Thousands of bridges need to be replaced or massively bolstered. Water infrastructure is ancient. Ask California how it feels about dams. Refineries are ancient, more pipeline projects are coming, and try comparing the city roads and many parts of the national highway system to other countries. We won’t even bother pointing out the ancient ports and airports” [MarketWatch]. “What is up for grabs is the potential for new billions and billions of dollars for each of the major infrastructure companies. The goal is to “Buy American, and Hire American!” Just do not be so naïve as to think that some foreign outfits won’t be involved. In some cases there may be little choice, and in other cases some of the foreign companies may employee more Americans than actual American companies do. Again, it just doesn’t matter if the infrastructure spending tallies up to $750 billion, $900 billion, $1 trillion or even more. What matters is ‘More, Much More! and Coming Soon!'” It will be interesting to see if the deficit hawks lose this one. If only deficit owls were the winners!
” It’s Republican unity, but it comes with a price. The laundry list has expensive items: paid family leave, health care tax credits, a sweeping tax cut, a big boost in military spending, and the trillion-dollar infrastructure plan. When Republican members of Congress were done applauding, those price tags started to make themselves known. The ultimate cost may be the very unity the president was trying to purchase. Trump is still facing down a party with deep divisions on how to handle “repeal and replace” Obamacare – something that was supposed to be the easy part of the Republican agenda. Trump has redefined what it means to be conservative, but only to an extent. Last night may be remembered as a high point for party unity, when it needs to be a starting point” [ABC].
“Trump was calm. He read from a teleprompter, with little ad-libbing. He adopted the tone, cadence and vocabulary expected of a major political speech. Even his body language was more controlled” [WaPo]. “The address might have seemed unusual for Trump as a result. But if you listened closely, it became clear that the difference was in its style, not its substance. Underneath the polished exterior were the same themes and promises that Trump used to fire up his base during the election and that continue to provoke controversy in the early days of his presidency. Consider the images he summoned. ‘Dying industries.’ ‘Crumbling infrastructure.’ ‘Our terrible drug epidemic.’ ‘Our neglected inner cities.’ ‘Attacks at home.'” “American is already great” didn’t click for a reason….
“Democrat giving response to Trump speech calls himself a Republican” [New York Post]. Good to see Democrat centrists achieving a level of honesty. About time! Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear:
The dem A-team consists of some ghosts in an abandoned Appalachian tavern. pic.twitter.com/PV7dct3HkG
— Blagojevist (@blagojevism) March 1, 2017
I would have said that tavern was out of Stephen King. But whatever! Anyhow, everything that’s wrong with Establishment Democrats is here, even leaving aside Beshear‘s Kinsley gaffe. Look at the optics: It’s like some idiot Democratic strategist asked: “How can we appeal to the white working class?” (because never, ever just “working class”). And answered: “I’ve got it! We’ll put Beshear in a gen-u-wine diner with his neighbors!” (all of whom are white. “What do some different white people think, Milford?” [reference]). Then besides the gaffe and the butchered identity politics, we’ve got the rancid policy: Beshear sells ObamaCare hard, and suppresses all mention of #MedicareForAll! Bonus points for kicking the left! (Beshear says: “You know, in 2010, this country made a commitment, that every American deserved health care they could afford and rely on.” This is an outright lie. ObamaCare has never provided a universal benefit, and was never designed to. Shocking, I know.)
Trump Transition
“‘It’s normally so busy here,’ marveled a State Department staffer as we stood watching the emptiness. ‘People are usually coming in for meetings, there’s lots of people, and now it’s so quiet.’ The action at Foggy Bottom has instead moved to the State Department cafeteria where, in the absence of work, people linger over countless coffees with colleagues. (‘The cafeteria is so crowded all day,’ a mid-level State Department officer said, adding that it was a very unusual sight. ‘No one’s doing anything.’) As the staffer and I walked among the tables and chairs, people with badges chatted over coffee; one was reading his Kindle” [The Atlantic]. Not to worry. The Blob will have them fomenting wars again quite soon!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Will Disney’s Bob Iger Run for President in 2020? Hollywood Friends Are Nudging” [Hollywood Reporter].
“Oprah Realizes You Don’t Need Experience to Be President” [Bloomberg].
Stats Watch
Institute For Supply Management Manufacturing Index, February 2017: “In a report of rare strength, the ISM manufacturing index jumped 1.7 points in February to a 57.7 level that beats the Econoday consensus by 1.3 points. This is the strongest rate of monthly growth in composite activity since August 2014” [Econoday]. “The report in fact is filled with superlatives…. [P]erhaps most impressive is the breadth of strength with 17 of 18 industries reporting monthly growth…. This report perhaps is the greatest expression yet of post-election strength in anecdotal surveys, strength that has yet however to find its way to actual government data on the factory sector which have been consistently soft.” But: “Overall, surveys do not have a high correlation to the movement of industrial production (manufacturing) since the Great Recession” [Econintersect]. And: “There is certainly nothing in the data which would discourage an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve” [Economic Calendar].
Purchasing Managers’ Manufacturing Index, February 2017: “slightly lower rates of growth for both orders and output in February” [Econoday]. “There are soft spots in this report but, like so many anecdotal reports, the results are mostly solid and stand in sharp contrast to weakness in actual factory data from the government.” And: “The overall data still suggests that the first-quarter performance will be the strongest for two years” [Economic Calendar].
Personal Income and Outlays, January 2017: “Inflation is nearly at the Fed’s 2.0 percent target, up a sharp 3 tenths to 1.9 percent for the PCE price index which is the strongest rate since April 2012” [Econoday]. “The monthly gain, reflecting rising energy costs, rose an outsized and higher-than-expected 0.4 percent for the highest reading since February 2013…. The PCE price index will put the pressure on the Fed to raise rates at the mid-month policy meeting. Though it’s not quite at target, its clear upward trajectory makes a successful breach all but certain.” But: “Personal consumption has been the major driver of GDP since the end of the Great Recession. Inflation however, is dragging down the nominal numbers – and year-over-year consumption continues to outpace income growth. Remember these are average numbers – not median” [Econintersect].
Construction Spending, January 2017: “Construction spending fell a sharp 1.0 percent in January but the weakness is in public spending, not residential spending where gains are substantial” [Econoday]. “But public spending looks to get a boost down the road with new fiscal initiatives while the strength of the report, residential investment, is very solid and looks to improve further given gains in related permits.” And but: “But the confusion is that construction spending does not correlate to construction employment – casting doubt on the validity of one or both data sets” [Econintersect].
MBA Mortgage Applications, March 1, 2017: After adjustments, “Purchase applications for home mortgages rose a seasonally adjusted 7 percent” [Econoday].
Commodities: “China will increase its annual gold output to 500 tonnes by 2020 from around 450 tonnes currently, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)” [Xinhua]. “It aims to consolidate and upgrade the industry by reducing the number of gold miners to around 450 from more than 600, and shutting down 40 tonnes of outdated production capacity by the end of 2020.”
Commodities: “Water is the new carbon for institutional investors and money management firms across the globe, as risks and opportunities arising from water scarcity climb up the risk agenda” [Pensions & Investments]. Paging Michael Burry!
Retail: “J.C. Penney to close 130 to 140 stores and offer early retirement to 6,000 workers” [Los Angeles Times]. Eesh. Dead store walking Sears and J.C. Penney are anchor tenants at the Bangor Mall. Along with Macy’s. Oh well, there’s a always heroin.
Shipping: “As we roll into 2017, it’s clear that the $36 billion less-than-truckload (LTL) sector is enjoying a financial renaissance as carriers continue their new-found pricing discipline and resist the urge to expand capacity beyond fulfilling immediate shipper needs” [Logistics Management].
The Bezzle: “You’re Overpaying for Drugs and Your Pharmacist Can’t Tell You” [Bloomberg]. “Pusey’s contracts with drug-benefit managers at his Medicap Pharmacy in Olyphant, Pennsylvania, bar him from volunteering the fact that for many cheap, generic medicines, co-pays sometimes are more expensive than if patients simply pay out of pocket and bypass insurance. The extra money — what the industry calls a clawback — ends up with the benefit companies. Pusey tells customers only if they ask.”
Political Risk: “Three ways to trade the Trump presidency” [Quartz]. Buy. Sell. Run.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 78 Extreme Greed (previous close: 64, Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 80 (Extreme Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated Mar 1 at 11:41am. Big swing, galvanized by the SOTU?
Health Care
“If Obamacare Exits, Some May Need to Rethink Early Retirement” [New York Times]. “[J]ob lock [is] the need to maintain a job to get health insurance. … Though not all studies have found evidence of job lock in the pre-Obamacare era, a majority of high-quality studies have. That’s the conclusion of systematic reviews conducted by the Government Accountability Office and several health economists. Because people approaching retirement age are more prone to illness and high health care costs, employment-based insurance is particularly valuable to older workers — so much so that many studies document that it influences retirement decisions. One study found that workers whose employers offered retiree health benefits were 68 percent more likely to retire early than those who lack employer-based retiree coverage.”
“VP Mike Pence vows ‘no one is going to fall through the cracks’ in plan to repeal, replace Obamacare” [Good Morning America]. No, they will be liquified, and poured through the cracks. (Not including, of course, the 20 million or so who have already “fallen through the cracks” of ObamaCare, and cannot take advantage of its narrow networks, high deductibles, balance billing, opaque policies, and increasing premiums.)
Black Injustice Tipping Point
“A World That Draws a Line: Interracial Love Songs in American Country Music” [Viewpoint]. Fun!
Class Warfare
“The Solidarity Ecosystems of Occupied Factories” [Truthout (DB)]. “This was the uncertain footing from which the first steps were taken to put the Thessaloniki factory back to work after its bosses disappeared, owing the workers months of back pay. With no managers around, it fell upon the shop floor workers to figure out how the business they had worked in for so long was actually run.”
“The rise of the useless class” [Ideas.Ted.Com]. “In the 19th century the Industrial Revolution created a huge urban proletariat, and socialism spread because no other creed managed to answer the unprecedented needs, hopes and fears of this new working class. Liberalism eventually defeated socialism only by adopting the best parts of the socialist program. In the 21st century we might witness the creation of a massive new unworking class: people devoid of any economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity, power and glory of society. This ‘useless class’ will not merely be unemployed — it will be unemployable.” Now there’s a happy thought!
“Japanese man stabbed himself because he didn’t want to go to work” [International Business Times]. “He was subsequently arrested for wasting police time.”
News of the Wired
“New Zealand Will Give You a Free Trip If You Agree to a Job Interview” [Time]. “[Wellington, New Zealand] is looking to bring in 100 new software developers, creative directors, product managers, analysts, and digital strategists from around the world to invigorate the country’s growing tech scene.”
Readers, feel free to contact me with (a) links, and even better (b) sources I should curate regularly, and (c) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi are deemed to be honorary plants! See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. And here’s today’s plant:
Readers, Water Cooler is a standalone entity, not supported by the very successful Naked Capitalism fundraiser just past. Now, I understand you may feel tapped out, but when and if you are able, please use the dropdown to choose your contribution, and then click the hat! Your tip will be welcome today, and indeed any day. Water Cooler will not exist without your continued help.
125 comments
Comments are closed.
Ha! Next time, the rebuttal will be presented by Joe Manchin.
So this was a way of telling Americans not to pay attention to the party’s left wing, because the party doesn’t pay attention to them either?
Damn, but these Clintons are neurotic control freaks, aren’t they?
It’s still better optics than the Green Party response:
Ruby Tuesday Waiter Warns Jill Stein Her Green Party Response To Trump Speech Disrupting Other Diners
Homeland Security is taking calls (by voicemail count) to see public feedback on Steve Bannon on the Security Council. Call this number 202-224-4751 and let them know what you think.
I think it isn’t Homeland Security’s business what the public think about Steve Bannon on the Security Council. Their Boss, the President, wants Bannon there. If this is true, it is another over reach by those running the Department. The only government entities that should be soliciting or taking public feedback on this are the White House and Congress.
And doesn’t Homeland Security already have all that “metadata” from phone calls and social media to tell them what people think? Oh, wait we aren’t supposed to admit that…
That phone number has noting to do with DHS. It’s a commercial phone number. Nice try.
Not true. It is the phone number of the Senate Committee for Homeland Security… look it up. Among multiple other sites giving out the same ph number, here is an article on Daily Kos
Democrats’ response. Okay, Ann Coulter is not who one usually goes to for comment, but she kind of cracked me up on this in a right on kind of way.
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/836779255501565952
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/836780752851337221
Look at the optics: It’s like some idiot Democratic strategist asked: “How can we appeal to the white working class?” …
wtf, he didn’t roll up his shirt sleeves! He’s management! hahaha I think some blotchy green water activated temporary tattoos would help as well… better yet, iron on..
Far right Matt Bevin’s victory for Kentucky governor over bland Democrat sure thing Conway was a preview of Trump’s win over Hillary. Democrats have made a fine art out of fucking up.
Here’s the link to the transcript. transcript at NYTimes. Notice this bit
That’s why he’s republican. And that’s why republicans have been wiping the dems at the state level. It’s because the states can’t act like the Fed Gov and engage in deficit spending to their hearts content. They truly have to act like a business or a household on a budget.
It’s on par with what’s happening in the eurozone. If only the eurozone had a federal government that could recycle surplus out of Germany out to the peripheral countries. Imagine how that would change things.
In contrast, the US does have a federal government which does recycle surplus out of NY and CA and whereever the hoards are to the fly-over states. But only enough to keep them on a short leash. Not enough to make them feel flush (and generous).
And if states can’t be generous, well they might as well be run by republicans.
or they could just pay taxes to have the potholes fixed. Nah …
That’s a good point. If the Fed Gov didn’t operate as if it believed in the laffer curve, the taxes would be more progressive at the Federal level. And if they were progressive at the Federal level, that would carry down to the state level too.
But in lieu of that, states operate as if they believe in the laffer curve too. After all, if it’s good enough for the Fed Gov, then it’s good enough for us too. Which means they have to operate on a tighter budget or they have to tax higher rates on the lower end of the food chain. Both of which play to republican strengths.
Unfortunately, there’s little impetus to move the Fed Gov off the laffer curve orthodoxy. Because while deficits matter at the Fed Gov when it comes to spending, they don’t matter when it comes to taxing.
This tweet summed his anti-Russia hysteria:
https://twitter.com/NinaByzantina/status/836796119627739136
In advance of the March for Science, the editors of Nature channel the back row kids:
Researchers should reach beyond the science bubble
Scientists in the United States and elsewhere ought to address the needs and employment prospects of taxpayers who have seen little benefit from scientific advances.
Science won’t be able to help reverse the mass-jobicide caused by science. The victims of mass-jobicide will have to be given a Guaranteed Basic Income or a Guaranteed Basic Job or both at once. Or they can be left to starve to death and die. Or they can each be given an AK-47 , a thousand rounds of ammo for it, and a map to various rich people neighborhoods.
I’m an unemployed scientist. The jobs are already being automated.
https://www.emeraldcloudlab.com/
I’d accept the UBI proposal if it were a living wage.
Otherwise, I will take the AK-47 please.
Sorry about the financialization of science Isotope_C14. Along with the AK, ask for a Manpad and “Aim High.” (Interdicting air travel to and from “Enclaves” brings the angst home to the 10% pretty d— fast.)
The Rise of the Useless Class (story noted @ WC)
correct link: http://ideas.ted.com/the-rise-of-the-useless-class/
I find it disappointing to see Bernie is now red-baiting Trump.
Me too. Better to take the high ground and beat them honest when you already occupy the high ground. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Not that many months ago Clinton ally and arch zionist, Haim Saban rolled out a nice Castro-Communist ambush for Sanders at the debate hosted by Saban’s network Univision. It mostly fell flat because being 2017 Putin packs more punch than Castro, but still, left-leaning, self described “socialist” Sanders would be far more easy to tar and feather as a commie than Trump if the “Mighty Wulitzer” (as Lambert says) played along.
#MoiAussi …
Bernie needs to understand that this is just another item in the list of tropes – of which his own candidacy is a member – being articulated and promoted by the very forces seeking to exclude him and his followers from the Democratic Party power structure.
#WiseUpBernie
How can he not know that at this point? The powers that be cockblocked Ellison, who oddly was cheek to jowl with DWS last night at the SOTU.
At what point are we permitted by the faithful to question the wise and holy Senator Sanders’ allegiances?
Sanders is a Social-Democrat. For some seventy years now Russophobic hysteria has been central to the Social-Democratic mentality, from Bevin to Mollet to Shachtman to…Sanders.
“Red-baiting” seems inaccurate for two reasons:
1) Russia is not communist, whatever else it may be at this point, and historically the phrase “red-baiting” had to do with allegations of communist leanings.
2) Sanders has acknowledged that there is not presently any evidence of collusion; he appears simply to be asking for an investigation of what actually went on, which is an appropriate demand from a responsible legislator. After so many allegations, an honest formal review of hard facts would be a good thing.
Semantics of red-baiting aside, I would cast the explanation you posit in (2) as fairly generous.
Verbatim from the video (tweeted here), Bernie opens with:
“Look, what [we have] happened is unprecedented in the history of our country. We have a major government – the Russian government, led by Mr. Putin – actively interfering in our elections. Trying to do everything that they could to make sure that Mr. Trump won the election.”
I would argue that this is the real source of consternation – that he is even allowing the possibility that Russian interference could have turned the outcome of this election. This is straight out the #HRC/#DNC Zero-accountability playbook. It serves no purpose other than to not-so-subtly articulate that #HRC would have won if not for (multiple-choice question ahead!)
A) Russia
B) Comey
C) Obama
D) Bernie
E) Jill
F) ALL OF THE ABOVE
Because we all know when someone calls for an honest formal review of the facts, that’s what they get. From the investigation into Kent State on… oh wait. All these reports become heavily edited political footballs. where agenda pushing takes priority over honesty.As a long-term leigislator, Sanders is undoubtedly aware of this.
The party lost cred a long time ago, Sanders is well on his way.
And the fact that Russia is actually not communist does NOT mean that it is inaccurate to call it “red baiting”. There is still what amounts to a radioactive charge around the term “Russia” and the Dems know full well that they can utilize Russia’s alleged former desire to take over the world as a scare tactic whenever they want to manipulate people by using fear.
Finally, this whole Russia thing is a Dem prioity ONL:Y And weird one at that. I can think of approximately a million more important priorities that Sanders could have called for honest reports on, including 95% of his former “platform”.
Very disappointing, and it’s done it for me.
Endorsing NeoCon Ellison, who apparently supports HRC’s Syria regime change,
was bad, too
I do too. But count me as one of those Sanders supporters who was finished with him on July 12, 2016. A day which shall live in infamy.
As a Sanders state delegate (who voted for the people who went to Philly), I agree w/ this statement.
Bernie is going along to get along to leave the door open for 2020; or at lest keep his options open. His actions are par-for-the-course when your “Master” has cheated on you but you still want to be under the same roof instead of out to the curb.
I think one needs to filter Bernie, at the moment, through the lens of Chuck Schumer.
Part of me so desperately wants to believe (something like) this … but it’s annoying. Maybe he’ll endure this nonsense for a while. At some point – beyond the 100th day probably – I hope he has the stomach to say, when asked about Russia, that there are far more important questions to ask and things to talk about.
#BernieHearsYaBernieDontCare
Yes well…who else but Bernie is speaking forcefully to the issues that matter?
Gabbard?
Senator Bernie Sanders response to President Trump’s address tonight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEpxET43IXo
reposting this because I think it is really really important
Some notes on the worst-case scenario
I don’t mean to sound like a pedantic jerk, but lately I keep seeing the term “flag of convenience” used in a metaphorical sense outside of it’s actual context. ‘Flag of Connivence’ is a regulatory and tax arbitrage strategy utilized by firms in the transportation sector. The term was first used to refer the shipping industry, where maritime vessels would receive registration, or a flag, from a weak, barely functioning state in exchange for a small fee. The ships and their owners would then be exempt from any meaningful regulation or taxation from the stronger, more developed countries where they primarily conducted their business. “Flag of Convenience” rules decimated the ranks of the American shipping industry and now airlines like Norwegian Air are attempting to do the same thing to the airline business. Flag of Convenience isn’t a metaphor for some dead medieval practice, like “hoisting a petard”, it’s an extant business strategy that seeks to boost corporate profits by promoting ‘race-to-the-bottom’ and job off-shoring opportunities. The threat posed to jobs, safety, and the environment by transport companies seeking to take advantage of “Flag of Convenience” rules are real. A furious battle is being fought right now by the airline industry and airline unions to prevent the flag of convenience business model from taking hold in the North American airline sector, but it has not been receiving much sympathetic press, and Trump like Obama seems inclined to side the foreign companies seeking to break into the American domestic market using flag of convenience rules.
Thanks! I welcome the reminder of the literal meaning and the information about the current conflict, of which I was unaware.
Too true, mate. Our much revered (reviled) Qantas (a much different experience when it was owned and operated by the Government (airports too for that matter), but I digress) operates much of its international schedule using non-Australians (think Philippines, Thai – anywhere they can pay people less than Australian citizens).
They are jobs that Aussies used to do.
Corporations see, UberPeople.
Is this also Grecian shipping’s denoument?
Why “deploy” it? It will happen. Do you see the slightest sign of the measures that would ameliorate it?
Nor do I.
Again: what isn’t sustainable will end, like it or not.
Honestly I think the whole thing was alarmist. Too much fearmongering about supposed european fascists and so forth.
What was the exact line? “I’m a Democrat who is a Republican, who’s a Democrat-Republican” or something really confusing like that. What a ham-handed and pathetically transparent message from the DNC. The Democrats are openly declaring they are far more interested in wooing the graying, fickle “blue-dogs” back to their tent than harnessing the youthful vigor and advantageous demographics of the millions Sanders voters that actually registered and showed up for the primaries. Stupid. Instead of Id-Pol name checking terms like “Baptist preacher’s son” why not give those poor, hopeless, aging Kentuckians and their grandkids something, like Medicare for all or free college tuition? I’d like to see the Republicans spin that as a negative.
I missed that line (cooking dinner), but heard most of the rest of it. It wasn’t until today that I learned he was surrounded only by white people. I definitely cringed when he started bragging about being descended from a line of Baptist Preachers. Now I see the video and photos, and it’s like: here the DLC goes again. Doing their d*mndest to appeal to white Republicans.
WTF?
Plus, yeah: Obamacare is teh bestest. No mention of any other options.
This is the Democratic Party as it stands today. It’s your parents’ Old School semi-sort-of moderate Republican party, and clearly their goal is to appeal to aging white middle class people.
Great. Just great.
The thing is Trump is also doing his darndest to become a standard republican. So why are standard republicans going to vote Dem? No reason at all obviously.
And why wasn’t anyone eatting or drinking in this supposed diner? Not even a steaming cup of coffee in the place or sugar /salt or pepper. Hell, why wouldn’t they even “Let Them Eat Cake”. That would have been hilarious!
Hell, why didn’t any of ’em have open-carry pistols strapped to their tooled leather belts?
Ain’t gonna win no R votes without guns.
And it helps, after the speaker finishes, to fire a few rounds at the ceiling for emphasis. ;-)
Why wait for the finish? The French sharpshooter the other day fired near the start of Hollande’s speech.
I wonder what he’s doing now.
Flipping crêpes.
Would you like pommes frites with that?
I understand that he hurt himself in the accident. Reports were two hurt, one of those being the shooter. So, today it’s staying at home to heal.
Very funny! Thanks.
Religious, country-fried, aging white middle class people.
These are the people Donna Brazile and DWS think cost them the election, besides the KBG and stuff. (snicker) What I really think this is, is a dog doing some aspirational owner shopping. The DNC knows how to get lefties and progressives on board- elevate Sanders and people like Sanders to leadership positions, but apparently embracing progressive ideals and economic populism is anathema to the party. So instead the DNC thinks they might be able to slice off a few members of a gullible voting block by pandering to senile blue dogs with cheap religious appeals and tough talks about balancing the checkbook (austerity) sitting around the kitchen table. Austerity and Id-Pol pandering are far more to the DNC’s liking than a leftward lurch towards monopoly busting and wealth redistribution.
Exactly. The d-party is neoliberal in economics because it kept appealing to white man and their soccer mom wives, not because of teh wimmins and the n-ers.
Why does the Democratic Party fear/hate Vlad Putin so intensely? Putin is the democratically elected, and very popular leader of a successful Christian country, Russia. This makes no sense unless….
The Soviet Union collapses in 1991. World Communism apparatchiks flee the sinking ship. Many of them find a new “spiritual” home in the USA’s Democratic Party. The Democratic Party transitions from the Party of Carter, to the Party of Obama. (IMO, it is now a Communist Front Organization).
This is what happens in the natural world when one organism’s behavior and body is taken over by another’s, ie, the parasite Toxoplasma Gondi
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxoplasma_gondii
The rat seeks out the cat, so it can be eaten!
Vlad Putin is steeped in this culture of subversion, and understands it in a way that the main USA media (compromised for almost 100 years) has never let USA people understand, or (God Forbid!) even talk about. Crazy, tinfoil, paranoid, hate-speech to even imply this! Communism is nice. Of course, eggs must be broken when making an omelet. Chips must fly when chopping down trees. (Happy metaphors for tens of millions of deaths in Soviet Union Concentration Camps).
My favorite parts of Trump’s speech to the House/Senate was watching the Democrats turn to wax and melt as Trump poured cold water on them.
Sorry to link to the Washington Times from two weeks ago, and apologies if everyone already saw this, but it just came across my radar:
Did Groen, an alleged Democrat, actually say “You don’t want 300 people calling you and telling you what to do”? And then voted the opposite? And equated enthusiasm with anarchy?
Consider the source, of course, but jeez. Not even a pretense.
I appreciate his honesty. He’d rather take 1-2 calls from 1-2 billionaires and be done with it. Listening to your constituents sounds like real…..hard…..work. I’m sure it came across to Groen as completely impossible.
But, yes, consistent with the mentality of Dems which is that people are a kind of potential asset. They’re a force to “harness” and put to work for you. What they’re NOT to the Dem elite is citizens expressing their views that the party should listen to. They’re never the intended audience.
For Democrats, people are actually close to a natural resource which is there for the taking if you mange the process well enough. A natural resource asks no questions, makes no demands, just has the privilege of…being used.
Well, at least we now know the Democrat strategy for recapturing the White House: listen to what voters want, then do the opposite.
What is “the blob”?
I would like a definition of “The Blob” too…
Mr. Groen is certainly part of it.
Two definitions from the Weekly Standard and Bloomberg (links left out to avoid skynet)
And…
There is also a Wall Street Blob, coined by Jeff Connaughton in his book, The Payoff.
Generally, references an old Sci-Fi movie creature which is used as an image to describe modern establishment power and group think.
see:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26008962
see also:
“For those in search of a progressive alternative, the risk is that opposition to Trump’s unconventionality will morph into embrace of what President Obama referred to as the “Washington playbook” and Ben Rhodes, his deputy national security adviser, called the “Blob”—shorthand for the foreign policy elite that for decades, so the argument goes, generated and jealously guarded ruling dogmas regarding when to use force, where to project power and how to spread influence, be it under the guise of liberal interventionism or neoconservatism. ”
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/the-wrong-way-to-oppose-donald-trump-214818
here’s the original movie trailer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L31L3cIws6w
Sorry to interrupt, but have you looked around lately?
IMHO we’re already far advanced in creating that ‘useless class’, and one of our problems is breaking the news to those who’ve recently found themselves members without the benefit of prior experience, or family history.
If you find yourself ‘useless’ but have never been ‘useless’, and no one in your family has ever been ‘useless’ then you are really in deep trouble.
In fact, I’d say that there is no more ‘useless’ person than a ‘recently useless’ person.
Native Americans, and the descendants of slaves have had hundreds of years to develop coping strategies to deal with our cultures vicious notion of ‘usefulness’, and its nasty side-effects. Mean while, comfortable white folk have been asking “What’s the problem?”, and yelling “Get a job!” anytime they hear complaints coming from their non-white brothers and sisters.
If the next forty years are anything like the last forty years, we’re all going to have to get used to being ‘useless’.
Ask yourself this question;
Of what possible use am I to Donald, or Barack, or Hillary?
Get used to it, you’re lucky if your family finds you useful.
At least the politicians might pretend I’m useful until they get my vote. Afterwards, no so much.
The APP generation, endlessly fingering their phones is in my estimation already useless.
I have encountered dozens of young males in their prime of life who can’t do anything mechanical, seem helpless before the laws of physics, have no idea how things work and are shrinking violets when it comes time to defending themselves or their families from anything from birds attacking their head to dogs threatening their kids or to ruffians menacing them.
Imagine a national or local power failure lasting long enough for all the device batteries to die. No gasoline can be pumped, no GPS, no cell phones, no laptops, no lights.
Is there an app for that?
At one of the stores I’m responsible for, there’s an ’employee’ that I’ve observed for going on 6 months now, never seen him doing any work, he’s got ear-buds in and has his phone in his hand and is busy with his thumbs, but what he has ever done for ‘us’ is beyond me.
I’ve never mentioned the guy in particular, but supervisors I talk with say that all the ‘kids’ are like that.
I suppose that a lot of these kids have simply ‘adjusted’ to the fact that they are headed for obsolescence so there’s no need to demonstrate a healthy work ethic.
I’d have a hard time arguing against that.
Initially I though the useless were the economists, but there was this.
What’s so sacred about useless bums who pass their days devouring artificial experiences?
Then I realized it was a slight against Fakebook users.
The useless can always learn to use a gun, build a Molotov cocktail, or toss the end of a rope over a lamppost.
Seems like a lot of our elites have forgetten that.
(I’m clearly in a bad mood today)
You see what I see.
As for your mood, it’s understandable, maybe tomorrow will be better.
and a lot of us though we hesitate to endorse it, would find that mighty useful, maybe most useful thing done in a long time.
Learn some coping strategies EGrise. That mood can become endemic. I do endorse the learning of new “skills” however. The cut off bed of a pick up truck can easily be converted into a dandy Post Modern Tumbril!
Native Americans, and the descendants of slaves have had hundreds of years to develop coping strategies to deal with our cultures vicious notion of ‘usefulness’, and its nasty side-effects. Mean while, comfortable white folk have been asking “What’s the problem?”, and yelling “Get a job!” anytime they hear complaints coming from their non-white brothers and sisters.
Touche
Trump idea to expand health care competition faces hurdles [AP]
Not news to anybody here, but it will be interesting to see how quickly the `sell across state lines’ scam
collapses of its own absurdity.
Trump’s 5-point “outline”
Bold = my interpretation of verbiage as some old stand-by’s
Risk pools
Tax credits and health savings accounts
Medicaid block grants
Tort reform
Selling across state lines
I thought some previous discussion here had noted that the insurance companies weren’t eager to work across state lines. Am I misremembering, or remembering correctly but not considering factors that would change their outlook, or…? Anyone who is more up to speed on this, please fill me in!
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/upshot/the-problem-with-gop-plans-to-sell-health-insurance-across-state-lines.html
I used to work in the medical insurance biz…
Each state has its own Department of Insurance, with wildly different regulations/requirements.
Extremely impractical to suggest it would be easy to “merge” an insurance plan in two different states, unless the states magically agreed to change their laws. Which is a complete non-starter.
Couldn’t a bunch of Koch/ALEC controlled states get together and do it? I mean, they’re working amend the Constitution, and agreeing to coordinate insurance regulations ought to be a lot easier.
Thanks for the info. Until Katharine’s question sending me looking for links, I knew the “race to the bottom” (states with the worst regs) argument against this, but not that there were also negatives from the perspectives of the states and insurance companies.
Is anybody asking where that $6T came from, nevermind where it went?
Accountabilitiness!!!
AP Exclusive: Accountants in Oscar flub off the show
If only the Academy had been running the Obama Administration’s response to the banking crisis …
Accountabilitiness!!!, Part Deux
Yahoo punishes CEO in latest fallout from security breakdown [AP]
It would be interesting to know the AP stylebook’s policy for when to use `punishes’,
because most people would have a hard time calling this a punishment.
The internet says that the definition of `bonus’ is
an amount of money added to wages on a seasonal basis, especially as a reward for good performance.
Putting 1 billion accounts at risk of identity theft and then not telling them about it
doesn’t sound like good performance.
Thank you for today’s plantidote. Bleeding heart always makes me feel a little nostalgic- it was a particular favorite of my father’s.
“Look at the optics: It’s like some idiot Democratic strategist asked: “How can we appeal to the white working class?” (because never, ever just “working class”)….”
Of course not. Because that could create a political force that would make Dems and Repubs put up their “goin’ out of business” signs.
“Look at the optics” I note that there is absolutely nothing on those tables (other than pepper salt etc). They have nothing to share, nothing to commune or socialize with. They offer absolutely nothing.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/house-democrats-it-staffers-hina-alvi-imran-awan-235569
Because it would be irresponsible NOT to speculate….have we finally caught our DNC leakers? Maybe now we can stop yelling at the russkies?
Awan made nearly $2 million since starting as an IT support staffer for House Democrats in 2004, according to public salary data.
Wow!
Apologies if this is a repeat link, but Tom Engelhardt wrote in detail what I and no doubt a lot of others have been thinking:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/01/us-government-billionaires-generals-military-trump
Here’s an even more telling quote from that Atlantic article about the State Department:
“This is probably what it felt like to be a British foreign service officer after World War II, when you realize, no, the sun actually does set on your empire,” said the mid-level officer. “America is over. And being part of that, when it’s happening for no reason, is traumatic.”
If only that were really true. The sun unfortunately hasn’t yet set on America’s insane project of trying to rule the globe through dronings, bombings and its huge network of military bases, but American diplomacy has indeed been rendered obsolete.
https://www.thenation.com/article/after-the-fumble/
A 2016 election article – mentions Thomas Frank and Steve Faser
Urkkk! From the link: “… Barack Obama, a man whose elegance and intelligence rival that of any American president in the last 50 years. ”
You mean the most corrupt president in history? The guy, who when we needed FDR, managed to be Caspar Milquetoast? That’s elegant? Intelligent?
Nah! That’s snake oil!
LOL – yes agree. I do like most of his writings though. Hey-he is only 39 but trying. Not so bad to cut slack for the well intention…
The slick, intelligent con man is the most dangerous kind.
Don’t forget he rigged the DNC election to put his crony Perez in charge of the continued implosion of the Democratic Party.
Re: Infrastructure
Are suburbs financially viable? Short answer: “No!”
Here’s a longer answer. The linked article is a little scattered but essential to understanding the enormous subsidies suburbia requires.
“What, we haven’t had subsidies!”… you might say. The linked article demonstrates (great graphs!) how you need to add “yet” to that sentence.
The truth is that, besides their enormous payoff to land speculators, because of Prop 13, California cities must collect all their costs in building fees, or they aren’t going to get them. Folsom’s fees are $70K – $80K. Butte County’s were $10K (back in the days before it threatened to declare bankruptcy). There’s just not that big a difference between the price of roads and infrastructure in Folsom vs. Olivehurst, yet, as far as I can tell, little local governments spend very little effort correlating fees collected with their actual costs for roads, water, sewer, fire and police.
Excerpt from the “longer answer” linked article:
Marohn: I would say that you have to do the math. We can build places that are beautiful and walkable and well-connected and meet all the other metrics, but if they’re not financially solvent, it’s going to be for naught. And so unless we take care of the money, it’s not going to work. We can build places that are fantastic, that are also financially solvent. And I think when we use that discipline, what we find is that New Urbanism comes out ahead of every other approach that’s out there.
Marohn’s analysis of suburban economics is spot on. He’s quite conservative on macro and by my lights ill-informed. But in his lane–he’s a civil engineer and urban planner–he’s dynamite. Subversive, creative, synthesizing a wide variety of knowledge. He has me convinced that infrastructure spending will go to the wrong stuff. New roads for Walmarts and urban sprawl. This all creates high long term liabilities coupled with a low tax base. Older “blighted” prewar neighborhoods are cash cows whose taxes actually carry most communities even though they suffer systematic disinvestment. Politicians always have incentives for big and new, not fixing up the old stuff where the need is.
Strong Towns also is the first thing I’ve come across with true cross partisan appeal. There’s stuff to delight and challenge the left and right. It’s about building community.
Well that was quite a blast on Wall Street, as Bubble III reaches the ionosphere with its eighth birthday approaching next week. Some wirehouse forecasts of S&P 2400 by end-year have already happened as of March 1st, give or take 5 points.
Equally stunning was the ISM manufacturing index referenced in Lambert’s report above. Its 57.7 reading correlates with a 4.5% rate of GDP growth, based on a correlation derived from several decades of data. Since manufacturing is a much smaller portion of the economy now than it was when Big Steel ruled the Midwest and Chevy Impala ruled the roads, 4.5% probably is on the high side. But I could believe 3.0%.
Every action provokes an equal and opposite reaction — namely, Fed tightening. Ms Market isn’t bothered by a picayune quarter-point mosquito bite later this month. But jab in a few of those interest rate banderillas, and the old bull starts to wheeze.
For now, though, there’s still time to PAR-TYYYY …
I’m calling the top now that the Snap Chat IPO has closed. It’s a clear sign of the apocalypse.
Good luck! Everybody can play “pick the top.”
I thought it was the top in Aug 2004 when the Google IPO was priced at an insane $85 a share. Today it’s a ten-bagger at $856 a share.
Oh well, can’t win ’em all. Me and Warren B, we just don’t understand tech. :-(
20-bagger, I think. It split 2:1 along the way (2014) when it issued new stock (without voting rights) to existing shareholders and as new stock for employee stock option conversions. There was a ~$30 share price difference between the two share classes when it split, but that has narrowed to $19-22. The IPO cost basis for an originally acquired share is ~$43.
Oops, you are right. Good spot.
If I haven’t screwed up the calc, a 20-bagger in 12.5 years amounts to a 27 percent compounded annual rate of return.
*sigh*
Now I’m feeling a little ill … hindsight hurts.
You and me too. Unlike most IPOs that are marketed primarily to very wealthy clients of investment banks or to the Connected Class, it was fairly easy for a Nobody like myself to get qualified to buy IPO shares via their unique auction bidding process. (A very clever innovation.) Alas, woulda, coulda, shoulda. After the first down leg or two in early 2008 I finally picked up some shares (my first direct stock purchase ever) and promptly watched them lose 1/2 their value during the rest of 2008, along with more lows in early 2009. But by the end of 2009 they were up over 100% from their 12/31/08 share price. Buy and hold (or benign neglect) can have advantages, assuming we live long enough. Maybe we’re not too late for Snapchat!
The top is coming around 2030. Plenty of time to make money.
Man, 2030 is gonna be Mad Max time.
Me, my dog, a shotgun, and a pocket full of gold coins. ;-)
Re: Ted talk and glorified algorithms
That’s only possible if the belief system is that jobs are the only thing that make a person “human.”
And the brain is nothing like a computer, but a quant is exemplification that for a hammer everything looks like a nail.
http://linkis.com/pastemagazine.com/rpfWL
Katie Halper on the DNC election
Top drugmakers to ignore investor calls to explain price hikes [Marketwatch]
What is the chemical formula for talk to the hand?
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/321808-trump-and-bannon-take-on-the-permanent-government
Nice to see Mark Weisbrot get some space at the Hill.
Don’t-miss article that talks about the root causes of our money woes:
https://medium.com/@_Maverick_/energy-money-and-the-destruction-of-equilibrium-da96f8a225d6#.ufk6jxoph
The author talks his book (Bitcoin) but the rest of the points are very worthy IMO
“Employment-based insurance is particularly valuable to older workers — so much so that many studies document that it influences retirement decisions.”
Absolutely this is the case. In fact, I can’t even believe a study was required to prove this.
My mother put off retirement not only because she liked working, but also because after a certain time, part of her retirement package included full medical coverage, which she considered to be too valuable a benefit to just give up.
I’ve considered working less as my personal finances have improved, but my worry is that I’m not yet 50 and still have a long way to go to collect my tattered, likely long-gone Medicare voucher…
re: unemployable class
Leave it to “Ted”. I keep pointing people to Bob Black’s seminal “Abolition of Work”. Bucky Fuller had it sorted back in the 60s. With increasing automation, we can all have a decent living with the merest modicum of what’s now called ‘work’.
We’re ruled by sociopaths who don’t need us, have contempt for us and are already forming a breakaway civilization in gated fortresses guarded by Ukrainian mercenaries. What used to be called ‘jobs’ are all gone or going fast never to return – but – we have it hammered into us the libertarian creed that’s there’s no free lunch. The people living like pashas ‘deserve’ their wealth and shouldn’t have to share it with drooling peasants. When you get a Ayn Rand acolyte’s dander up, it never takes long to bring it to that.
These people enjoy controlling others. They live for it. Hillary and Donald and Theresa and all the rest of them. The sooner we realize that our ruling class is operated for the benefit of psychos and upheld by thugs who are happy to hack people into bloody chunks if their bosses so order.
Very soon the gloves will come off. The neoliberal order of the Anglo-Saxon hegemony is collapsing all around us and no one knows what will replace it. We can rest assured, however, that the precious feelings of the little groups who scream the loudest about Trump will not be taken into account in this new dispensation.
TED talk: these are the smart guys and gals, right? Best and brightest?
RE “useless class”—remind anyone of lebenswertes leben?
That ended well.
For me, one of the most eye-opening reads in a long time was Daniel Pick’s “Faces of Degeneration” (1989), which I finally got around to over the winter. It’s amazing how much late 19th-century elite anxieties about the supposedly “devolved” and useless lower classes are starting to recur in this age.
As if we needed another headache:
Regime change … hell, yeah! After all, we’re batting a thousand so far.
I say let the Chinese handle North Korea. After all, no one with any sense, and I believe that we all can agree that the Peoples Republic has some sensible men and women running the show over there, wants to have a petty nuclear power run by an un-enlightened despot for a neighbour.
Regime change??? We can’t even get rid of this meddlesome Crypto-Populist rich guy President of ours. And that’s in our own back yard! North Korea is the Middle Kingdom’s back yard. Let them deal with it. Maybe they’ll sub out the job of running the NK Plantation to the SK regime. Win win all the way around.
Preemptive first strike! That’s the ticket.
Two trillion in tactical nukes since 2008, shame not to put them to a real world test…
And as Wall Street will tell you, “Buy the mushroom cloud. Bullish!”
Flint is still in trouble:
http://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/03/01/flint-residents-now-have-pay-water-they-still-cant-drink
The water supply has not been fixed.
That it has not is, for me, the perfect manifestation of the political evil that has engulfed the US.
right now msnbc doing a hit job on Putin/trump . special edition called “The Trump/Putin Power Play” . NEW YORKER ‘S David Remnick is starring.
and the beat goes on…
oh and breaking news on same show…jeff sessions spoke to Russian Ambassador twice during campaign. and may have lied about it in the hearings. this is where i don’t get the lying part by anybody. why can’t or shouldn’t people talk to russians? they are not official enemies? so when asked, why not just say, ‘yeh, i talked to the guy about our common interests like defeating iSIS. ” why not? i guess weasels just can’t help acting like weasels. stupid.
Lambert? There’s a black man just behind the Guv’ner stage left. Background sure, but not that far bg.
What you talkin’ ’bout, Willis?