Comments on naked capitalism: Fitch Repeats Error that Led to Bad Subprime Calls...

Revolving credit card debt has also gone through a...

2008-03-25T11:44:00.000-04:00

Revolving credit card debt has also gone through adverse selection in the last cycle. Those without HELOC access dominate today's credit card revolvers. While this group does not have to worry about falling home prices, they will be hit hard in a recession.

Fitch is doing what it is suppposed to do (rememeb...

2008-03-25T09:11:00.000-04:00

Fitch is doing what it is suppposed to do (rememeber that Fitch, S%P and Moody are called Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Org.). What do you expect them to say: for the past 50 years it has been this way, but now for some reason isn't, and it will be this other way and believe us because we say so? That is not simply their job. The last part is
the investor's job.

I like how a complex financial organization uses a...

2008-03-25T07:24:00.000-04:00

I like how a complex financial organization uses a linear relationship to define the relationship between default and unemployment. Good thinking guys. Spreadsheets anyone?

I think a bigger problem is that they are comparin...

2008-03-25T07:06:00.000-04:00

I think a bigger problem is that they are comparing unemployment rates of years ago to the current farce of stats. As an example the last unemployment report the unemployment rate dropped while jobs deceased by 63,000. They are quick to label people not looking for work compared to prior years.

re: the analysis of these geniuses--on the farm wh...

2008-03-25T04:23:00.000-04:00

re: the analysis of these geniuses--on the farm where I was raised, we'd call it used hay