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<oembed><version>1.0</version><provider_name>naked capitalism</provider_name><provider_url>https://www.nakedcapitalism.com</provider_url><author_name>Yves Smith</author_name><author_url>https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/author/yves-smith</author_url><title>Guest Post: Predicting the Improbable&#x2013; Evidence from Playing the Lottery | naked capitalism</title><type>rich</type><width>600</width><height>338</height><html>&lt;blockquote class="wp-embedded-content" data-secret="zp9aEjKZWo"&gt;&lt;a href="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/guest-post-predicting-the-improbable%e2%80%93-evidence-from-playing-the-lottery.html"&gt;Guest Post: Predicting the Improbable&#x2013; Evidence from Playing the Lottery&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;&lt;iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/guest-post-predicting-the-improbable%e2%80%93-evidence-from-playing-the-lottery.html/embed#?secret=zp9aEjKZWo" width="600" height="338" title="&#x201C;Guest Post: Predicting the Improbable&#x2013; Evidence from Playing the Lottery&#x201D; &#x2014; naked capitalism" data-secret="zp9aEjKZWo" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"&gt;&lt;/iframe&gt;&lt;script type="text/javascript"&gt;
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</html><description>By Claus Bj&#xF8;rn J&#xF8;rgensen , Sigrid Suetens, and  Jean-Robert Tyran. Cross posted from VoxEU.   Japan&#x2019;s trio of tsunami, earthquake, and nuclear disaster has left the world stunned. As this column points out, even the experts were shocked. But while these events were highly unlikely, they were still possible. This column uses evidence from the Danish lottery to show that people tend to adjust their expectations of future events based on only small pockets of recent experience, often at their cost.</description><thumbnail_url>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Screen-shot-2011-04-22-at-11.29.18-PM.png</thumbnail_url></oembed>

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