We argued yesterday that the Senate was not a good vehicle for advancing Elizabeth Warren’s aims of helping middle class families, since she would have no more, and arguably less power than she has now, and would be expected to defend Democrat/Obama policies, many of which are affirmatively destructive to middle class interests (just less so than what the Republicans would put in place).
A poll conducted in late June by Scott Brown and the Republican National Committee raises an even more basic question: whether she even has a shot at winning. We pointed out an obvious flaw: Warren would not get much if any big corporate sponsorship, and big warchests are usually necessary to buy enough airtime to unseat incumbents.
The poll shows a 25 point gap, which is a massive hurdle, and also indicates that Brown is seen by many voters as not being a Republican stalwart (as in he is perceived to vote for the state’s, not the party’s, interest). A 25 point gap is a near insurmountable hurdle and shows that Warren’s reputation does not carry as far as the Democratic party hackocracy would like her fans to believe. But there’s no reason not to get this pesky woman to take up what is likely to be a poisoned chalice. If she wins, she’s unlikely to get on any important committees, given the Democratic party pay to play system, and will be boxed in by the practical requirements of having to make nice to the party and support Obama positions a meaningful portion of the time. And if she runs and loses, it would be taken as proof that her middle class agenda really doesn’t resonate with voters, which will give the corporocrats free rein (if you can’t sell a liberal agenda in a borderline Communist state like Massachusetts, it won’t play in Peoria either).
From the National Journal:
Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., leads Democrat Elizabeth Warren by a 53-28 percent margin among likely 2012 voters, according to a poll conducted for the senator and the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Matched against Warren, who was passed over for the top job at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the face of GOP resistance and is considering a Senate run, Brown leads by a 25-point margin, with 18 percent undecided. He leads Newton Mayor Setti Warren, 57-21, and City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, 54-24.
Two-thirds of likely Massachusetts voters approve of Brown’s job performance and 56 percent say he deserves reelection, according to the survey.
The Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Brown with a 62 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable rating; his favorables are six points higher than during his Jan. 2010 election. His job performance rating has climbed six points since April 2010.
The poll also shows that 60 percent of voters thought Brown, who ran promising to vote free of party orthodoxy, had been an “independent vote” in the Senate rather than asserting partisan interests ahead of the state’s. Thirty-one percent said it had been the other way around.
Before you say, “she’s not even a candidate,” remember Democrat operatives have been aggressively talking up the idea of a Senate run as a way to put Warren out to pasture since at least early June, so the polls were taken after the idea was being talked up in the media. It was presumably getting even heavier coverage in Massachusetts.
And as we noted in Links, Warren has not signaled any enthusiasm for the idea. Per the Boston Globe:
Warren told MSNBC yesterday that she plans to take her grandchildren to Legoland and then return to Massachusetts.
“Massachusetts does beckon in the sense that it’s my home and I need to go home,’’ she said. “I’ll do more thinking then, but I need to do that thinking not from Washington; I need to go home.’
Frankly, she sounds tired and not terribly interested in entertaining the question. As a seasoned political observer noted, “She can’t carry on like this and be viable, even for two weeks.”