Category Archives: Investment outlook

30-Year Treasury Yield Spikes Past 5%, 30-Year Mortgage Rates Hit 8%, Mortgage Applications Plunge

Treasury bond bloodbath, housing Market in deep-freeze, as delusions fade.

Happy Talk About US Slowdown a Recession Warning as China Growth Also Weakening

Recession complacency means things are wobblier than they seem.

$100 Oil Is Bad For The Economy (And For OPEC+)

$100 a barrel oil does not bode well for the economy in the US and even more so around the world. What might the political fallout be?

CalPERS Chief Investment Officer Nicole Musicco Resigns Abruptly, Intensifying CalPERS’ Senior Staffing Instability

CalPERS lurches into a new crisis. The official story of the sudden resignation of CIO Nicole Musicco does not add up. What gives?

How Shareholder Value Fixation Turns AI and Robotics into a Recipe for Failure

New technologies are not the problem. It’s a system distorted by a flawed shareholder value ideology.

My Favorite Recession Indicator: The Next Recession Moves Further Out of Sight

There will be a recession, there’s always a recession eventually. But we’ll just have to keep watching for it.

“Core Services” Inflation Jumps to 2nd Worst Since 1985, “Non-Housing Services” Are Red Hot. Fed’s Job Far from Done

Inflation in the US is still defying the Fed, confirming that the blunt instrument of interest rate increases is not the right tool.

The Scourge of Corporate Financialization: Income Inequity, Employment Instability, Productive Fragility

Stock buybacks, aka corporate financialization, as a mode of predatory value extraction

China Schizophrenia: Jake Sullivan Makes Demands, Press Fulminates Its Ambitions as While Overhyping Current Economic Wobbles

The West’s discomfort over China’s influence and economic stature is sometimes a bit too obvious.

Fed Ponders How Quickly to Try to Inflict More Pain on the Economy to Get Inflation to 2%

Debates inside and outside the Fed as to what it should do next about inflation pick up as its annual Jackson Hole conference approaches.

Investors Start Thinking About Underpricing of Climate Risk

Some investors are worried that climate risk means their holdings are overvalued. It would be nicer if they worried about the real world too.

Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Thirty-Three: Uber Isn’t Really Profitable Yet But is Getting Closer; The Antitrust Case Against Uber

Hubert Horan takes another hard look at Uber financials and finds much not to like.

Wolf Richter: End of Easy Money: Financial Conditions Loosen Again for Junk-Rated Companies. But Some that Long Teetered Finally Go Over the Bankruptcy Cliff

Tightening is a slow process, and there is still a flood of excess liquidity chasing after yield.

Climate Risk Stress Tests Underestimate Potential Financial Sector Losses

Given the complexity of the link between climate shocks and financial sector outcomes, the authors argue that current methods have several key limitations that may lead to significant underestimation of potential financial sector losses.