Could a Crash Halve Stock Prices?
US and UK stock prices are in nosebleed terrain. How far could they fall?
Read more...Category Archives: Investment outlook
Satyajit Das: Déjà Vu All Over Again! Are Stock Markets Repeating Dot.com Mistakes?
AI valuations make the dot.com era look pale. Yet genuine excitement seems to be wanting.
Read more...AI Investment Mania Has Begun to Percolate Through the Economy, and the Fed Has Begun to Fret About the Effects
AI dominated the Fed’s meeting as a driver of “persistent inflationary pressures” and demand growth.
Read more...Why AI Doesn’t Think, Cannot Reason, Isn’t Intelligent and Will Never Achieve Consciousness
Rob Urie addresses common misperceptions regularly promoted by AI touts, of what AI can and cannot do.
Read more...Iran War: Philip Pilkington, Nate Wade Debunk Oil Cliff Hopium; Pilkington Explains Prices Derived from Crack Spreads are $100 to $115 a Barrel; US Declares Fertilizer Emergency
Today’s abbreviated Iran war news: some information hygiene on the oil cliff and fertilizer fronts.
Read more...When Trust in Official Statistics Declines
The Trump firing of the BLS chief imposed costs by lowering faith in official statistics and increasing uncertainty.
Read more...Bank of International Settlements Warns That AI Crash Could Produce Investment Drought, Economic Contraction and Even a Crisis
The Bank of International Settlements took a look at the AI bubble. Not surprisingly, it found a lot not to like.
Read more...Iran War: US Pundit Freakout Over “Deal,” Evidence of Disagreement Over Terms, Bodes Ill for Signing; More on Oil Cliff Risk Versus Hormuz Opening
Today’s Iran war news: Trump’s deal is starting to come unglued as more detail on the oil cliff shows the risk is very much in play.
Read more...Iran War: Iran Launches New Strikes on Israel After Netanyahu Humiliated Trump by Ignoring Demand to Stand Pat; Ansar Allah Attacks Israel and Saudi Base, Makes Red Sea Threat; South Korea Swoon Adds to AI Meltdown; BREAKING Bab el-Mandeb Closed?
Today’s Iran war update: Iran and Israel exchange attacks rapidly as Trump blusters and the AI meltdown accelerates in global markets
Read more...Who Needs Bitcoin & Cryptos (-50%) Amid the Semiconductor & Miracle IPO Mania?
Are bitcoin and crypto, followed by semiconductors and AI, proving Mark Twain right, that manias don’t repeat but they rhyme?
Read more...Iran War: Hezbollah Rejects Israel-Favoring Ceasefire, Casting More Doubt on “Deal”: Iran Agrees to Inspection of Bushehr Plant but No Enriched Uranium Concessions; Trump Warned of Oil Cliff as Private Debt Fund Wobbles Rise
Today’s Iran war news: The US-Iran impasse is undeniable to everyone ex Team Trump as Israel balks and the oil cliff comes ever closer.
Read more...Iran War: Rubio Testimony Raises Questions as to Why Iran Is Bothering With Talks; Intensified Tit-for-Tat Attacks Continue; US Muscles Oman
Today’s Iran war update: The kinetic war is heating up as the US keeps demanding things of Iran that Iran has already rejected.
Read more...Commodity Markets Are Living on Borrowed Time
Another warning that the deceptive calm in the commodity markets is not set to last.
Read more...Iran War: Iran Rejects Trump Claims That Deal Is Near as US Counterproductively Toughens Terms; Hotter Tit-for-Tat Strikes Threaten Ceasefire; What if Trump Continues to Stall When Hitting Energy Cliff ?
Today’s Iran war update: What if Trump fails or refuses to resolve the conflict despite the US going over the energy cliff, projected for July?
Read more...Iran War: New Reports of Agreement on Memo of Understanding Effectively Shot Down by Bessent as He Also Repeats Threats Against Oman; Israel Attacks Beirut; More Warnings of Energy Price Cliff Plus Claim Trump Made Illegal Below-Market SPR Sales
Today’s Iran war news: More Axios “deal is sealed” fake news as real economy costs of continued conflict look even more dire.
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