Category Archives: Investment outlook

Private Equity’s Uninvested “Dry Powder” and Falling Returns Reflect a Bigger Problem: The End of a Long Term Disinflationary Tail Wind

The press is finally becoming skeptical of private equity’s claims that it generates superior returns, demonstrated by a Monday Wall Street Journal story, Private-Equity Cash Piles Up as Takeover Targets Get Pricier1 and a Bloomberg article yesterday, ‘Peak’ Private-Equity Fears Are Spreading Across Pension World. This follows a Mark Hulbert piece in MarketWatch, whose title […]

‘Maybe Rich People Can See the Writing on the Wall’: CEOs Stepping Down at Levels Not Seen Since 2008

CEOs are cashing out….an early warning?

Uber Loses Another $1.2 Billion, Stock Dives Again

Uber manages to bleed even more cash.

Why Did Isaac Newton Lose His Shirt in Financial Speculation? Author Alex Pollock Explains.

Trying to predict the financial future is a fool’s errand, even for a genius.

Herd Behaviour in Asset Markets: The Role of Monetary Policy

Data supports the idea that lax monetary policy contributes to bubbles. Yes, Virginia, some regard that claim as controversial.

Long Term Real Interest Rates Fell Below Zero in all Euro Area Countries

Is praise of negative real interest rates in Europe making a virtue out of (mis)perceived necessity?

The Fed Thinks the US Economy Is Fine. Do You?

Seeking reader input on the health of their economy.

Amid Recession Warnings, Trump Reportedly Considering More Tax Cuts for Rich and Corporations

Trump proposes yet more tax breaks, which would do more for the stock market than for the real economy.

What Plunging Global Semiconductor Sales Says About Autos, IT & How the Economy Reacts to Uncertainties

Should you worry about the biggest fall in semiconductor sales since the Financial Crisis?

Softening Real Estate Markets in Prime West Coast Cities: Does China Trump IPOs?

Looking at undercurrents in West Coast economies and what they might portend for the US.

Martin Wolf v. Trumponomics Whiffs Due to Fealty to Orthodoxy

The Financial Times’ Martin Wolf has a go at Donald Trump, but manages to score an own goal as far as his profession is concerned.

The Inverted Yield Curve

Should we trust the recession warning the yield curve is sending?

Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Twenty: Will the “Train Wreck” Uber/Lyft IPOs Finally Change the Public Narrative About Ridesharing?

A post-mortem of the Uber and Lyft IPOs.

“Code Red” at Tesla as Carmaggedon Sinks Tesla Bonds, Carmaker May Need Another $1-2 Billion Before Year End

Tesla is floundering and even stalwarts are losing hope.

The Next US Recession Is Likely to Be Around the Corner

Business economists argue that the length of an expansion is a good indicator of when a recession will hit.