Category Archives: Investment outlook

Manufacturing Employment, New Orders & Production Fall Fastest Since Apr-Aug 2009

Yves here. As readers know well, on the one hand, services and not manufacturing dominate the US economy. But manufacturing jobs, even now, are relatively well paid and manufacturing growth is often seen as having spillover effects. By Wolf Richter, editor at Wolf Street. Originally published at Wolf Street US manufacturing took a turn from […]


Credit Cycles and Asset Returns

Yves here. I’m clearly not in touch. I am surprised that this finding, that credit booms predict equity busts, is novel. Of course, given that manias last way longer than cooler heads deem possible, judging the peak of a credit cycle is tricky business. Nevertheless, when a wee summer associate at bond trading powerhouse Salomon […]


Private Equity’s Uninvested “Dry Powder” and Falling Returns Reflect a Bigger Problem: The End of a Long Term Disinflationary Tail Wind

The press is finally becoming skeptical of private equity’s claims that it generates superior returns, demonstrated by a Monday Wall Street Journal story, Private-Equity Cash Piles Up as Takeover Targets Get Pricier1 and a Bloomberg article yesterday, ‘Peak’ Private-Equity Fears Are Spreading Across Pension World. This follows a Mark Hulbert piece in MarketWatch, whose title […]