Category Archives: Investment outlook

Where’s the Contagion from the Crypto Implosion?

Why, if you aren’t in crypto, you can watch the meltdown in comparative comfort.

Bank of England Bought Only Small Amounts of Bonds Even Today, Warns Pension Funds They Have “Only Three Days Left” to Unwind Derivatives with BOE Support

The Bank of England has been doing less than believed to rescue the gilts market. But stil not a good look.

Gasoline Demand Destruction Accelerates Despite Plunge in Prices: Consumption Drops to August 1997 Level

Gasoline purchases show a softening economy, but the Fed is likely to ignore that memo.

Companies Are Paying Inflation Busting Dividends at Cost to the Rest of the Economy, Including Their Employees

How companies are paying dividends rather than investing in their business or paying employees better……and often borrow to do so.

Wrong Way CalPERS Increased Private Equity Allocation by Over 50% as Investors Are Dumping Holdings

The Financial Times reports that private equity investors are running for the exits as CalPERS plans to pile on.

Now It’s Official: Financial Times Profiles Venture Capital Crash

A venture capital washout is underway. Pass the popcorn.

Prices of New Houses Plunge, Sales Crater to Lockdown Level, Inventories Pile Up to Highest Since 2008

There is no “housing shortage,” with over 9 months’ supply of unsold houses, the most since the Housing Bust. But prices are still too high.

As CalPERS Doubles Down on Private Equity, New Analysis Finds CalPERS’ Private Equity Returns “Based on a Mirage;” Another Study Reaffirms that Private Equity Drags Down Performance

Yet more reasons why CalPERS needs to kick its private equity bad habit.

Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop to Lockdown Lows, “Bad Time to Buy” Hits Record amid Sky-High Prices, Spiking Mortgage Rates

The increase in interest rates is finally denting mortgage and housing activity of all sorts.

Suddenly Here Comes the Inventory: Homes Listed for Sale Jump Amid Price Reductions and Sagging Sales

In most US markets, there are more homes waiting to be sold than last year, How long will it take for overhang to lead to lower prices?

Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Unsold Inventory of New Houses Spikes by Most Ever, to Highest since 2008, with 9 Months’ Supply, Sales Collapse at Prices below $400k

The housing market is starting to unravel at the lower end, with new home purchases taking the biggest hit.

Bad Breath of Inflation Sinks Target, Walmart, Other Retailers on Surging Costs of Products, Labor, and Transportation

Mr. Market had a meltdown because retailers were unable to pass on all their cost increases. What’s a capitalist to do?

How the Options Tail Has Come to Wag the Market Dog: A Simple English Language Explanation of How Structural Changes in the Stock Markets Contribute to Whipsaw Movements in Prices

Why the use of options may be the risk bomb that blows a big hole in our financial system.

Letter to SEC: How Stock Buybacks Undermine Investment in Innovation for the Sake of Stock-Price Manipulation

A comment on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed rule “Share Repurchase Disclosure Modernization”, aka stock buybacks.

War or Peace, Barbarism or Hope: War Threatens World with Stagflation

A short hisory of stagflation and why it’s a pressing risk now.