Category Archives: Investment outlook

Wrong Way CalPERS Increased Private Equity Allocation by Over 50% as Investors Are Dumping Holdings

The Financial Times reports that private equity investors are running for the exits as CalPERS plans to pile on.

Now It’s Official: Financial Times Profiles Venture Capital Crash

A venture capital washout is underway. Pass the popcorn.

Prices of New Houses Plunge, Sales Crater to Lockdown Level, Inventories Pile Up to Highest Since 2008

There is no “housing shortage,” with over 9 months’ supply of unsold houses, the most since the Housing Bust. But prices are still too high.

As CalPERS Doubles Down on Private Equity, New Analysis Finds CalPERS’ Private Equity Returns “Based on a Mirage;” Another Study Reaffirms that Private Equity Drags Down Performance

Yet more reasons why CalPERS needs to kick its private equity bad habit.

Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop to Lockdown Lows, “Bad Time to Buy” Hits Record amid Sky-High Prices, Spiking Mortgage Rates

The increase in interest rates is finally denting mortgage and housing activity of all sorts.

Suddenly Here Comes the Inventory: Homes Listed for Sale Jump Amid Price Reductions and Sagging Sales

In most US markets, there are more homes waiting to be sold than last year, How long will it take for overhang to lead to lower prices?

Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Unsold Inventory of New Houses Spikes by Most Ever, to Highest since 2008, with 9 Months’ Supply, Sales Collapse at Prices below $400k

The housing market is starting to unravel at the lower end, with new home purchases taking the biggest hit.

Bad Breath of Inflation Sinks Target, Walmart, Other Retailers on Surging Costs of Products, Labor, and Transportation

Mr. Market had a meltdown because retailers were unable to pass on all their cost increases. What’s a capitalist to do?

How the Options Tail Has Come to Wag the Market Dog: A Simple English Language Explanation of How Structural Changes in the Stock Markets Contribute to Whipsaw Movements in Prices

Why the use of options may be the risk bomb that blows a big hole in our financial system.

Letter to SEC: How Stock Buybacks Undermine Investment in Innovation for the Sake of Stock-Price Manipulation

A comment on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed rule “Share Repurchase Disclosure Modernization”, aka stock buybacks.

War or Peace, Barbarism or Hope: War Threatens World with Stagflation

A short hisory of stagflation and why it’s a pressing risk now.

Where Did You Go, Vice President Joe? Biden Retreats from Bashing Looting, Um, Buybacks

Yet another Biden hypocrisy: refusing to curb stock buybacks when he flagged it as an abuse when he was Vice President.

The Private Equity Industry in the New Interest Rate Environment

Private equity has been a big winner thanks to a long-term trend of falling interest rates. What happens in a less favorable environment?

“Bankruptcy For Moderna, Definitely Pfizer”

Pfizer and Moderna stocks have tanked over liabilty worries. The case made by vocal critic Edward Dowd.

Is 4% the “Magic Number” for Mortgage Rates to Prick the Housing Market (and Stocks)?

Is the housing market about to hit a tipping point?