One of the features that distinguishes a bull market from a bear market is how participants react to news. In upswings, investors either shrug off discouraging information, or at worse show an initial negative reaction, then pile back in. You see the reverse in corrections: securities prices don’t respond to good news, or do so […]
Read more...Guru Grades:The Annual Business Week Stock Market Forecasts (Last Updated 1/2/08) CXO Advisory Group. Includes performance ranking of sixty forecasters. Hat tip Abnormal Returns. Is The US Political System The Best Reponse To Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem? The Stalwart Stagflation cometh Joseph Stiglitz Project Syndicate How municipal bond insurance works Accrued Interest. A useful primer. Daily […]
Read more...An article in Asia Times, “Shopping ‘zombies’ offer US hope,” supplies middling analysis (the author believes the depth of the subprime mess has been dimensioned, which means the bad news has already been reflected in prices. That’s a long winded way of saying that now is a time to buy. That perspective is not shared […]
Read more...Anyone who has worked in a large organization knows the syndrome: top executives are briefed by their subordinates and go and make pronouncements even though they are stretched too thin to have a full understanding. A study by two University of California (Berkeley) economists concludes that that pattern applies to the Fed. Christina and David […]
Read more...As the US government has sponsored various plans to forestall the recognition of real estate related losses, ranging from the failed SIV bailout program to New Hope Alliance subprime rate freeze program to proposals to raise Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae’s mortgage ceilings, it has begged comparison to Japan in the post-bubble years. Even though […]
Read more...The Financial Tines and the Wall Street Journal feature two treatments of the same theme, investors looking to pick up bargains in companies damaged by the subprime implosion. The Financial Times discusses the interest of the Kuwait Investment Authority in acquiring stakes in financial services firms; the Journal article is aimed at retail investors that […]
Read more...Goldman Sachs and Jim Rogers seem to be on the same page as far as commodities, or at least agricultural commodities, are concerned. Both foresee a protracted bull market in foodstuff due to improve diets in the third world and supply strains. From Bloomberg: Selling soybeans at their highest prices in three decades and corn […]
Read more...Soros slams emissions trading systems Responsible Investor Bush to Revive Push for Housing Remedy Wall Street Journal. Noteworthy because first, no specific measures proposed, second, the programs mentioned as most likely in by the Journal are smoke and mirrors. What accounts for the clean-up of US manufacturing: technology or international trade? Vox EU. “Since the […]
Read more...This is an admittedly arbitrary selection of posts from 2007 for your amusement. Since I had more than five times as many viewers the second half of the year than the first, popularity would not be as valid an indicator as it would be for established blogs. What follows is a selection of ones that […]
Read more...Liquidity vs. Minor-Solvency vs. Major Solvency Crises–No–Panic vs. Interest-Rates-Are-too-High vs. The-Financial System-Is-Totally-B***ered Crises–No–I Need Better Names! Brad DeLong Credit Card Charge-Off Rates Credit Slips Housing Summary Calculated Risk. A nice synopsis. 2008 and Beyond: Alan Greenspan’s Continuing Legacy Robert Reich Can They Stay Out of Harm’s Way? New York Times. On efforts to save the […]
Read more...The Privacy & Human Rights Report examines privacy policies and practices in 70 countries. Produced annually since 1997, this is far and away the most comprehensive survey of this sort, running to 1,100 pages with over 6,000 footnotes. Summary of key findings: The 2007 rankings indicate an overall worsening of privacy protection across the world, […]
Read more...