Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is nothing if not decisive in his views, and has a undisguised fondness for the bearish perspective. But he was correct on the 2008 inflation/commodities headfake, saying repeatedly that deflationary forces would prevail when that was decidedly a minority view. He is also a Euro-skeptic, and I’m less comfortable with that position. The […]
Read more...By Robert Johnson, former chief economist of the Senate Banking Committee and Senior Economist of the Senate Budget Committee who writes at New Deal 2.0. Since the early 1980s, rises in the living standard of middle class United States citizens have not kept up with the gains in labor productivity. Wages in the middle class […]
Read more...If the sky-high prices relative to income aren’t enough to convince you, consider this discussion from Patrick Chovanec (hat tip reader Michael) who contends that China’s latest effort to contain housing prices, the reinstitution of a property sales tax, is likely to be counterproductive: In China, however, “flipping” is not the problem. Some people may […]
Read more...What is truly remarkable about two comments in the last two days in the august Financial Times, is that they both say protectionism against China is likely. One actually urges it, the other pretty much says it’s a-comin’ unless China mends its ways. And both pieces were written by reputable economists, the last people you’d […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. It has been almost a week since the Bernanke testimony and since the dust has settled, two exchanges stand […]
Read more...Reader Andrew sent a research report by Pivot Capital Management, which makes a compelling case that the capital spending bubble in China has reached its limits. This is important in a narrow sense, since capital investment is now the largest component of Chinese growth, and in its broader ramifications, since China is seen as a […]
Read more...One of the motherhood and apple pie items in econ-land is that the world needs global rebalancing, which is code for China has to stop being a mercantilist and currency manipulator, and the US has to quit borrowing a ton and overconsuming (or underproducing, which is another way to frame the same problem). But once […]
Read more...Normally I relegate items that I deem important, but to which I have comparatively little to add, to Links and label as “Today’s Must Read.” Even thought this offering falls into that general category, it is far and away the most important “Must Read” I can recall coming across, and so I am highlighting it […]
Read more...By Marshall Auerback, a fund manager and investment strategist who writes for New Deal 2.0. Another Presidential junket to Asia and another one of the usual lectures from China, decrying our “profligate ways”. Today’s Wall Street Journal reports:, “China’s top banking regulator issued a sharp critique of U.S. financial management only hours before President Barack […]
Read more...What a difference seven years makes. No one had a problem with Japan having super low interest rates and stoking a global carry trade, nor with the US running overly loose monetary policy that led to a real estate bubble that spread its impact beyond our borders via the creation of toxic mortgage product sold […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Is it just me or did Secretary Geithner just talk out of other side of his mouth? Today he wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal with two Asian leaders to mark a big meeting of APEC (Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation) in Singapore. The WSJ article started out […]
Read more...By Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns I would be especially interested to hear the views of NC’s Asian readers on this post because Japan and China are usually considered antagonists with a long and sordid past. Andy Xie thinks the Fed is on an inflationary path. Last month, he wrote an article in Caijing which […]
Read more...By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The G-20 statement contained seven principles to guide policy during the balance of the crisis period. However, the agreed […]
Read more...This tidbit, from a report on impressions of conditions in China, via a steel buyer who has been making the rounds in Asia (hat tip reader Michael) is more significant than it appears. High inflation levels in China (and the powers that be seem to get worried when it goes over 11%-12%) is consistent with […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Earlier today I wrote a post featuring comments by Marc Faber as I like to do from time to time. In this particular case Dr. Faber was waxing prosaically about an eventual bankruptcy of the U.S. government. His money quote was: “Next station is when the U.S. government […]
Read more...