Category Archives: Credit markets

Arrearage Hitting Hard-to-Modify Prime Loans

Alan Greenspan tells us today that he sees signs of the housing market bottoming. The Financial Times tells us that delinquencies are increasing in prime mortgages, which are even harder to modify than subprime. I am beginning to get tired of the new mortgage lingo, or rather, the slippage of old mortgage lingo. In the […]

Credit Default Swaps Holders Likely to Force GM into Bankruptcy

It only takes opposition by 10% of the bondholders to stymie an out-of-court restructuring of GM. The FT believes that there are enough bondholders who, via being net short GM bonds via credit default swaps, have good reason to block a negotiated outcome and force the automaker into bankruptcy. And that poses risk to the […]

Are All Losses Created Equal?

Benjamin Friedman, in a review of George Akerlof and Robert Shiller’s Animal Spirits, makes an interesting observation: As in past financial declines, what is sorely missing in this discussion is attention to what function the financial system is supposed to perform in the economy and how well it has been doing it. Today attention is […]

Did Chrysler Secured Lenders Get a Raw Deal?

As readers may know, secured lenders make loans against which specific assets are pledged. For consumers, mortgages and car loans are examples. If you default, the lender can seize the asset and sell it to try to recoup. In bankruptcy, secured lenders are normally the top of the food chain, but in the Chrysler bankruptcy, […]

Is Liquidity Really Good for You?

One of the arguments apparently being made in Washington by those who oppose regulation of credit default swaps is that it would reduce liquidity and that of course would be a terrible thing. My impression is that no one has endeavored to put metrics on this assertion (as in how and where liquidity would be […]

Bank Stress Test Dance of the Seven Veils Continues

The latest leak, arriving curiously after the markets closed, is that the Treasury wants Citigroup to raise $10 billion as a result of the famed stress tests, which the bank is fighting tooth and nail. Another rumors circulating in the media Is that Bank of America is being asked to convert $45 billion of preferred […]

Martin Wolf: "Those Who Hope for Swift Return to Normalcy" are "Deluded"

Well, that isn’t exactly how the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf put it, but his comment today does carry a sobering message. Bank balance sheets need a tremendous amount of additional shoring up. Some not too pretty factoids: We appear to be less than halfway through writedowns, and the fundraising and recapitalizations to date are falling […]

Yet Another Program to Enrich Banks at Taxpayer and Borrower Expense

The chicanery never ends. The latest bit of looting fobbed off as a win for homeowners is a program to shovel money to second mortgage lenders: The Obama administration unveiled a new program to help borrowers with second mortgages stay out of foreclosure, offering cash to servicers, investors and borrowers who modify loan terms. Guess […]

Musings on Credit Default Swaps

As readers may know, I view the credit default swaps market with more than a bit of skepticism. I can point to cases where it has caused harm: 1. Bagholders. Dealers claim that CDS are really not bad at all because they haven’t been taking risk, oh no, they hedge their position with offsetting swaps. […]

Musings on Structural Challenges to the Financial System

One thing that has me troubled about the financial mess is the degree to which the powers that be are wedded to a system that it clearly broken. In part, that results from financial capture of the government apparatus by the banking industry. But an equally sticky problem is the attachment to a rather recent […]

US to Impose Conditions on TARP Repayment

The Administration is trying to look like it is not rolling over to banks’ demands on the issue of repayment of TARP money. But despite the tough-ish talk, the problem described by John Gapper remains. Whether the bank pay back the TARP or not, they and the wider world clearly know that they will not […]

On Good and Bad Financial Innovation

James Kwak, discussing a recent Bernanke speech defending financial innovation and a Ryan Avent post parsing it, underscored Avent’s observation that Bernanke had trouble coming up with an example of the sort that the financial services had in mind these days (ie, novel products making use of derivatives and other risk slicing, dicing, and distribution […]

Bank Stress Tests Now Officially a Garbage In, Garbage Out Exercise

We’ve had plenty of company in voicing doubts about the Treasury’s so-called stress tests of the 19 biggest banks. To quickly recap the main issues: The bank will run the tests themselves, using the same risk models that caused the mess. With only ten examiners on average per bank, and most of the banks having […]

Goldman CFO Viniar "Mystified" by Probes into Relationship with AIG

I suppose I should take anything said by Goldman in general, and its CFO David Viniar, with a fistful of salt. This is the man who during the October-November meltdown, attributed the poor performance to the fact that they were seeing “25 sigma events, several days in a row.” That show such manifest ignorance as […]

Is TARP Investigator on Collision Course With Treasury on Bank Assets?

This could get interesting. The Financial Times tells us that Neil Barofsky, the special investigator general for the TARP, is looking whether banks cooked their books by overvaluing assets to qualify for TARP funding, Remember, bank had to fall into this funny construct of being sick enough to need help, but not so sick as […]