In more normal times, when a company faces the risk of bankruptcy but believes it has a viable business, it files for Chapter 11 and works out a deal with its various creditors. To keep functioning (and paying its lawyers) while the court proceedings are in motion, large companies have resorted to debtor-in-possession financing. The […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal, in a typically anodyne bit of reporting, tells us that the Fed is considering selling its own debt to finance its balance sheet, Its good old buddy, the Treasury Department, which heretofore has been selling bills in part on behalf of the Fed, now has a big enough financing calendar in […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal reports in a story frustratingly sketchy on key details that AIG has sprung another leak, or more accurately, had an ongoing leak that has just now come to light. The amount at issue, $10 billion, seems small compared to the $150 billion the insurer has already managed to extortsecure from the […]
Read more...By way of background, we posted this on November 27: How can you give cash compensation to an executive, yet claim it is not a salary or bonus? You call it a “retention bonus,” No, I am not making this up. Note that AIG chose to make this disclosure the day before Thanksgiving, selecting a […]
Read more...As credit default swaps have come in and out of focus over the last year, I have been struck by the assumption that this product would of course continue to exist. I have trouble seeing their legitimate uses. In theory, they could allow banks to diversify and hedge credit risks better, but once risks rise […]
Read more...One thing I have found troubling is the near-unanimity in the US that we must Do Something about the burgeoning economic crisis, and that Something is big time monetary and fiscal stimulus. Near unanimity is almost never a good thing in the political and policy realm, since conditions and options are sufficiently complicated so as […]
Read more...One of the arguments made by bottom-fishers is that not only are stocks “oversold” (a technical notion that reflects recent trading activity, such as trading volumes, price in relationship to various moving day averages) but are also cheap based on fundamental notions of value. We have been somewhat leery of any long-term valuation notions given […]
Read more...I hate it when I get contradictory information from supposedly reliable sources, which happens upon occasion when the topic is CDS. The latest Institutional Risk Analytics newsletter is again after one of its favorite objects of ire, credit default swaps. One of its beefs is that the collateral posting rules are a joke. Key excerpts: […]
Read more...To call Paulson response to the credit crisis improvised does a disservice to artists. Improvisation still requires a sense of direction and purpose, the thrust of a musical piece or the likely frictions between two characters. By contrast, the Treasury/Fed program looks completely reactive, an attempt to stabilize a system when they lack a good […]
Read more...Two of the most accurate forecasters of the credit crisis anticipate that economic conditions will deteriorate further. Nouriel Roubini, who has been consistently been on the dire end of the opinion spectrum, characterizes our current situation as stag-deflation. Meredith Whitney, who was the first banking analyst to call the crisis in financials, and has made […]
Read more...I came up with this in revising an article. The US circa 1929 and China now: Alpha creditor.
Read more...Readers no doubt recall that the Fed announced the creation of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which will lend as much as $200 billion against new or recent vintage asset backed securities collateralized by “student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.” One wonders if the order […]
Read more...You simply cannot make this up. I found a section of this priceless commentary from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe via Marc Faber’s latest newsletter (hat tip reader Dean), and had to verify it. The original provides an even richer mine of material. From the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (boldface theirs): As Monetary Authorities, we […]
Read more...I am puzzled by some recent market anomalies, which are breakdowns of established patterns: 1. Long dated Treasuries rising (a deflation signal) as stocks stage a dramatic rally 2. Dollar weakening while long dated Treasuries rise (the dollar and bonds usually go together) 3. Oil stocks rallying more than the S&P (28% versus 18%) when […]
Read more...How can you give cash compensation to an executive, yet claim it is not a salary or bonus? You call it a “retention bonus,” No, I am not making this up. Note that AIG chose to make this disclosure the day before Thanksgiving, clearly choosing a time when it would attract the least notice. Not […]
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