Although the housing contraction started later in England than in the US, the credit and real economy contraction has progressed at a quicker clip. The latest sightings are not pretty. The Independent reports that new home construction has plummeted to a 50 year low: New private house-building is at a 50-year low, according to an […]
Read more...We wrote a couple of days ago that one of the reasons for rescuing AIG was that its failure would have had a devastating impact on EU banks. The insurer had entered into credit default swaps that enabled European banks to evade minimum capital requirements. Thus, an AIG failure would have put a considerable number […]
Read more...Even though the deeply flawed bailout bill appears to be moving relentlessly towards passage by the House, it hasn’t deterred pundits and experts from coming up with better alternatives. Since the smart money expects this so-called “Mother of All Bailouts” to be another chapter in a series, it’s worth keeping tabs on these ideas, since […]
Read more...Most observers have taken as a given that the increased disinclination of banks to lend to each other is counterparty risk, that is, the fear the money they lend out won’t come back, or at least on the initially promised timetable (bankruptcy proceedings take time and usually lead to losses by unsecured creditors). Some wags […]
Read more...Oh boy, this is badly timed. The run on money market funds appears to have abated, thanks to the insurance plan implemented by Treasury, but the commercial paper market, important for day-to-day business funding is still under big-time stress because the amount of money committed to short-term, non-government holdings has contracted. The new bit of […]
Read more...In the last few days, virtually all mainstream financial media outlets have taken up the banner for the passage of the deeply flawed bailout bill. A bit late in the game, BreakingViews, which is insightful but hardly extreme in any of its positions, argues that the Paulson plan directs capital to where it will not […]
Read more...One of the most troubling aspects of the credit crunch is that even large companies are now seeing its effects. By way of background, the commercial paper is a significant source of short-term funding for big companies and financial firms. Commercial paper is unsecured IOUs (there is another type of commercial paper, “asset backed commercial […]
Read more...Columbia professor and Nobel prize winner Edmund Phelps writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, “We Need to Recapitalize the Banks,” an article appears not to have garnered the attention it warrants in the blogosphere. Phelps comments approvingly on Sweden’s approach to handling its financial crisis, which had as its cornerstone reducing the size of […]
Read more...Reader FairEconomist left a short comment on an earlier post which we hoisted along with some other material, on why the bailout bill could make the illiquidity in money markets worse. He left a longer comment j that sets forth the issues, as he sees them, in more detail. I hope readers do not mind […]
Read more...Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. The bailout bill discussions in the US have apparently emboldened politicians on the other side of the pond to suggest massive rescue efforts. As we have said, one of our colleagues who has high level regulatory contacts in the US and Europe has been telling us for quite […]
Read more...Boy, I wish I had thought of this, and why no one else save some smart readers have focused on the mechanics of the Paulson plan operations is beyond me. This bill is moving ahead like the Titanic…..with high odds of similar outcomes. Hoisted from comments, we turn the mike over to reader Don: The […]
Read more...Here’s a clip: Boy, do I need to get better at looking at the lens. FWIW, this is all done with a computer camera (unlike videotaping or TV) so you only have a teeny light to look at, and you clearly need to keep your eyes locked on it not to look peculiar. Better luck […]
Read more...This comes from an e-mail titled, “It’s worse than I thought,” from a reader with a good deal of inside-the-Beltway experience: It’s Christmas…This has NOTHING TO DO WITH THE ORIGINAL CONCEPT. In fact very little has really been changed with respect to the original Paulson plan…The new PIG has everything to do with Senate Finance. […]
Read more...Despite the hue and cry among the officialdom in favor of the bailout bill, the reading we have gotten from professional investors, some of them with very high level connections, and economists among our readership and personal network is strongly negative. Nevertheless, by making the bill a de facto ultimatum (“do this or we do […]
Read more...This message comes from a savvy reader/investor/economist, and is refreshingly succinct: At this stage, I think the bailout complicates matters enormously, because the immediate problem is 1) Preventing further runs on banks and money market funds by extending deposit insurance & mmmf insurance 2) Reviving the interbank market by placing the Fed as counterparty and […]
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