With today’s weak non-farm payrolls report, financial markets participants have turned up the volume on their calls to the Fed to lower interest rates. Even Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has weighed in, urging a “meaningful” cut. So the Financial Times comment today by Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the […]
Read more...James Hamilton provides a nice, succinct explanation of why the crisis in the credit markets is not a bank run (the afflicted organizations are not banks) yet has the characteristics of a bank run. It’s a useful piece for explaining, as he did at Jackson Hole, why the problem isn’t remedied by interest rate cuts. […]
Read more...As concern about tightening conditions in the credit markets and the continued erosion of the US supbrime and broader housing market has grown, so too have calls for Extreme Measures to combat these snowballing problems. The first was from Bill Gross at Pimco, who suggested that the US government “rescue” the 2 millionish homeowners who […]
Read more...A Bloomberg story today tells us that CreditSights found that AAA ratings for a new type of credit derivative may be as likely to default as junk. In a report titled “Distressed CPDOs: We’re Doomed!”, CreditSights raised doubts about the ratings of constant proportion debt obligations, which use credit default swaps as a means to […]
Read more...The problem with being a night blogger is that one is either early or late on the day’s news. Apologies for being late to turn to the Financial Times’ Martin Wolf’s article on what he describes as “the first crisis of our brave new world of securitized financial markets.” The piece is in the form […]
Read more...Experts warn that the boom in commercial real estate prices, fueled by cheap credit, is going sharply into reverse. Fitch had noted as early as April, and again in July that commercial real estate lenders were engaging in the same lax practices that led to grief with subprimes: 0% down, overly optimistic projections, deal terms […]
Read more...It’s always dangerous for mere mortals to take issue with Serious Economists, but let’s start with Brad DeLong’s thesis (hat tip Mark Thoma): The fact that there is even a small liquidity crunch for banks implies larger liquidity crunches for less intensively regulated financial institutions, and even greater liquidity crunches for manufacturing and real-estate companies. […]
Read more...John Dizard, in today’s Financial Times, tells us why, despite the fact that a lot of fixed income paper is on offer at very cheap prices, no one seems to be stepping to the plate. And his explanation bodes ill for things turning around very soon. The simple story is that even though the buys […]
Read more...Bloomberg tells us that the Fed and the Treasury made a joint statement today asking mortgage servicers to take a more proactive stance, identify borrowers in danger of gong into default, and offer loan modification. Tanta at Calculated Risk provided a link to the “ Interagency Statement on Loss Mitigation Strategies for Servicers of Residential […]
Read more...Ah, fall is upon us, and with it comes the spectacle of renewed discussion of what to do about the snowballing subprime/housing mess. Members of Congress will compete for air time to Bemoan the Situation, Search for the Guilty, and Throw Money at the Problem. Note there may occasionally be thoughtful analysis and sensible regulatory […]
Read more...Users of computer-driven strategies of all sorts have been taking it on the chin. Bloomberg tells us that the latest casualties are Treasury bond traders using quantitatively driven strategies hit by a sudden increase in volatility. The failure of the models is producing more collateral damage than one might expect. Trading volumes in what is […]
Read more...Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Munchau, in “Prepare for the credit crisis to spread,” tells us that the credit crunch is likely to get worse, since credit problems will spread to credit card receivables and car loans, both of which are typically securitized, and collateralized loan obligations (read takeover debt) also look shaky. Munchau argues that […]
Read more...Apologies for the heavy reliance on the Financial Times today, but the pickings elsewhere are meager indeed. The FT has an interesting juxtaposition of stores on its website tonight. The lead story, from the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, reports that Bundesbank President Axel Weber described the current credit crunch as resembling a bank run, but […]
Read more...Jim Hamilton should get an award for his remarks today at the Federal Reserve’s conference at Jackson Hole. His talk sought to step away from the issue du jour, namely what if anything, to do about housing, and look at larger structural and regulatory concerns. He brought up uncomfortable issues, in particular, the rising level […]
Read more...John Authers of the Financial Times, in “Market vultures await more blood,” tells us that bottom fishers have been taking a wait-and-see attitude towards the recent market turmoil. While they’ve been able to make handsome profits on certain trades based on the (until a couple of months ago) underpricing of risk, the distressed merchandise pros […]
Read more...