Most observers have taken as a given that the increased disinclination of banks to lend to each other is counterparty risk, that is, the fear the money they lend out won’t come back, or at least on the initially promised timetable (bankruptcy proceedings take time and usually lead to losses by unsecured creditors). Some wags […]
Read more...Gretchen Morgenson in the New York Times reports that Goldman and no other Wall Street firm was involved in the AIG rescue talks and an AIG failure would have created a hole as big as $20 billion in Goldman’s balance sheet. This is special dealing, pure and simple. Even if AIG needed to be salvaged […]
Read more...The International Swaps and Derivatives Association reported that the notional amount of credit default swaps outstanding fell from $62 trillion to a bit under $55 trillion as dealers worked to eliminate offsetting trades. This is a step forward, although it is hard to assess how significant it is. While the reduction in systemic risk is […]
Read more...Nothing like a turf war to wake up a sleepy regulator. It seems rather telling that Cox has developed a sudden interest in the credit default swaps market a mere day after New York State announced that it will regulate the product (to the limited extent it can) starting January of next year. (Although the […]
Read more...I’m glad someone is trying to keep his eye on the ball. With serial bailouts artists Paulson and Bernanke working full bore on their showstopper, they’ve somehow managed to overlook the most obvious culprit for a systemic crisis, namely, the credit default swaps market (yes, rescuing AIG was an effort to keep that market from […]
Read more...I have no idea what the morrow will bring, but if it is only as bad as Monday’s trading, we should all consider ourselves lucky. Ftich dowgraded AIG to A with a negative watch (hat tip reader Steve) S&P downgraded AIG to A-2 with a negative outlook as reported on CNBC (hat tip readers Scott […]
Read more...The numbers and the measures become more and more extreme. For AIG to get permission from regulators to move $20 billion in capital from its subs to the holding company and have significant asset disposals teed up wasn’t sufficient to shore up the embattled insurer., The Fed has reportedly convened yet another emergency session to […]
Read more...AIG appears to have fended off the immediate threat of a downgrade with the granting of permission by New York State for the parent to gain access to subsidiary capital. While certainly quite a waiver, it is also possible that AIG has overcapitlaized subs and thus this move may be defensible as far as policyholders […]
Read more...This is truly unbelievable. Even as little as a week ago, the idea that AIG, the world’s biggest insurer, would go begging the Fed for help would have seemed daft. But that’s now an element of the meltdown in progress. And AIG is a major credit default swaps writer, bigger than Bear. If Bear could […]
Read more...Hat tip readers dd and viv on this update from the New York Times’ Dealbook: Lehman will seek to place its parent company, Lehman Brothers Holdings, into bankruptcy protection, while its subsidiaries will remain solvent while the firm liquidates its holdings, these people said. A consortium of banks will provide a financial backstop to help […]
Read more...Reader Steve A , Scott and Saboor also pointed to the Bloomberg story reporting that the International Swaps Dealers Association had announced an emergency Sunday session to net Lehman-related position in anticipation of a possible bankruptcy filing, From Bloomberg: Wall Street prepared for a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy after Barclays Plc said it […]
Read more...The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal provided Saturday afternoon updates on Lehman. The discussions increasingly acknowledge that a deal may not be in place by Sunday as initially hoped (understandable, given the authorities’ unwillingness to provide support and the near-impossibility of doing adequate due diligence in a few days) and have moved […]
Read more...Even though all eyes have been on Lehman, the potentially more troubling slow-motion train wreck is AIG. The insurer is a large credit default swaps protection writer and provides a host of financing products. Not only is AIG a larger firm than Lehman and could trigger a systemic event in the CDS market alone, but […]
Read more...We had said a couple of days ago that while the conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie looked to be a credit event for credit default swaps, meaning they would trigger payment, we did not see this being a financial event (presumably there would be no loss, with the Treasury assurance to prevent a negative net […]
Read more...Bloomberg points out what some observers have already mentioned: putting Freddie and Fannie into conservatorship is a credit event as defined in credit default swaps (note defintions are sui generis, but this one was evidently close to universal in these agreements). Due to the Federal assurance that positive net worth will be maintained, this ought […]
Read more...