Bloomberg reports that former Harvard Fund Management CEO, now Pimco CEO Mohammed El-Erian does not buy the idea that US is returning to normal any time soon. El-Erian in particular took issue with some of Larry Summers’ sunnier prognostications: El-Erian likened Summers’s view of the economy to a three- stage rocket attempting to escape Earth’s […]
Read more...An unannounced but evidently coordinated effort to arrest or at least slow the fall of the dollar is underway. The Financial Times indicated that Asian central banks were aggressive dollar buyers on Thursday, but the information came via currency traders rather than an official pronouncement. Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan made substantial purchases; Hong Kong and […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns Why is everyone saying consumer credit is falling? It’s not. But, everywhere I look, everybody is saying it is. I would like to be true to the data and not just take the government’s seasonally-adjusted numbers at face value. Judge for yourself. Here’s the data: This is what […]
Read more...The Wall Street Journal provides a short update on the weak conditions in the apartment rental market. Vacancies have just hit a 23 year high, and experts expect them to increase. The story, however, is largely silent on the implications for the housing market are concerned. Some have argued that the housing market is stabilizing, […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. This is a re-post of an article I wrote last night at Credit Writedowns where I stressed a U.S.-centric view of Faber’s comments that the Fed is a money printer. However, here I have re-dubbed the post to reflect Faber’s comments, which are more comprehensive, in effect pointing […]
Read more...Nouriel Roubini, who has backed off from what was once his signature bearishiness (he has been calling for an U or perhaps a W shaped recovery) nevertheless thinks the current market rallies are considerably overdone. From Bloomberg: New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis, said stock and commodity markets may drop […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. Why isn’t the government breaking up the giant, insolvent banks? We Need Them To Help the Economy Recover? Do we need the Too Big to Fails to help the economy recover? No. The following top economists and financial experts believe that the economy cannot recover unless the big, insolvent […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Yves’ posting will be at a low ebb over the next week (post-book trauma!). So, I will be covering some of the bases in the interim. Expect at least a post per weekday through next week. Below is one I wrote on the employment numbers which came in […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns This is a post I wrote earlier to day at Credit Writedowns. I just noticed that Albert Edwards and David Rosenberg are saying similar things. See the FT Alphaville post on their comments here. As for me, for the last few months, I have been casting around looking […]
Read more...I’m not certain I would give Greenspan great market as a stock market seer, but he may have gotten better over time. He saw the stock market as frothy in 1996 (the time of his famed “irrational exuberance” remark, and was a skeptic through most of the equity bubble, then threw in the towel and […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As I have recently pointed out, there are strong arguments for ongoing deflation. But even deflationists think that – after a period of deflation – we might eventually get inflation. For example, in October, I guessed 1 1/2 to 2 years of deflation, followed by inflation. Moreover, noted deflationist […]
Read more...Submitted by Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns. Let’s say I run a company. For the sake of argument, we’ll call it a shoe store in New York City. I am making $100,000 net per year now. But, I look around me and see huge opportunity for growth. So I go to my bank and ask […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. As Absolute Return Partners wrote in its July newsletter: The most important investment decision you will have to make this year and possibly for years to come is whether to structure your portfolio for deflation or inflation. So which is it, inflation or deflation? This is obviously a hot […]
Read more...One indicator of commercial activity is shipments, such as train and truck traffic. Reader Marshall Auerback provided this sighting which shows that the decline in shipments is accelerating. Note that one of the general reasons for optimism is that many indicators are getting worse less quickly and some appear to be stabilizing. Now this is […]
Read more...By George Washington of Washington’s Blog. We’ve all been taught that banks first build up deposits, and then extend credit and loan out their excess reserves. But critics of the current banking system claim that this is not true, and that the order is actually reversed. Sounds crazy, right? Certainly. But as PhD economist Steve […]
Read more...